UFC Fight Night 144: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 - Predictions and Picks

#2 Jose Aldo vs. Renato Moicano

Jose Aldo looked back to his best in his fight with Jeremy Stephens

2018 taught the MMA world plenty of things, but one of its greatest lessons was that the demise of Jose Aldo was being greatly overstated. Many fans were writing the Brazilian legend off after his back-to-back losses against new Featherweight kingpin Max Holloway in 2017, but while Aldo was certainly outclassed by the Hawaiian, he looked back to his scintillating best against Jeremy Stephens in July, taking ‘Lil Heathen’ out in the first round.

2018 was also a fantastic year for Moicano, who proved himself as a real top-level 145lber with wins over Calvin Kattar and Cub Swanson. Due to his low-key personality, Moicano was flying under the radar with a lot of fans but had always been on the cusp of the top – he beat Stephens in 2017, for instance – and at 5-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming to Brian Ortega, he’s clearly a man not to be messed with.

Is he truly ready for the step up that Aldo represents, though? In terms of earning this fight, then sure. He’s definitely worthy of a step up and realistically, the UFC could easily have put him into a title fight based on his big win over Swanson and the fact that he’s only ever lost to Ortega. With a more sellable personality, that may well have been the case in fact. But Moicano can’t really talk trash and so here we are.

I’d say this is a horrendously difficult fight for Moicano, simply because everything he does, Aldo appears to do better – and of course, he’s been doing it better for a very long time. That leg kick-heavy attack that Moicano used to beat Stephens and Kattar? That’s basically Aldo’s bread-and-butter, and the only two men to ever best ‘Scarface’ on the feet have been Conor McGregor, who took him out with one punch, and the afore-mentioned Holloway, who is basically an unstoppable monster right now.

A very legitimate Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, some could argue that Moicano has an advantage on the ground, as while Aldo is a black belt himself, he’s never really shown off his ground game all that much, and didn’t look great from the bottom position in his 2011 fight with Mark Hominick. But why am I referencing a 2011 fight? Well, because Aldo rarely gets taken down. Tremendous wrestlers like Chad Mendes, Frankie Edgar and Ricardo Lamas all struggled to get him off his feet, and found it even harder to keep him down. So I just can’t see Moicano managing to get Aldo down and submit him.

For me, the only chance Moicano has here is if Father Time has suddenly caught up to Aldo and he’s degenerated a lot since the Stephens win in July. If that’s the case and the former champion looks slow or compromised, then Moicano might have a chance of outstriking him. I can’t see that happening, though – Aldo looked as dangerous as he ever has against Stephens and I’m now of the mind that his losses to Holloway came purely because Max is an incredible talent. I’m taking Aldo to pretty comfortably outstrike Moicano here, showing him another level that he’s not quite on just yet.

The Pick: Aldo via unanimous decision