UFC Fight Night 149: Overeem vs. Oleinik - Predictions and Picks

#7 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Light-Heavyweight prospect Michal Oleksiejczuk highlights the prelim card

Like the main card, all of Saturday’s prelims will air on ESPN+, meaning if things go badly, this could be a slog of a card to get through. Hopefully that won’t be the case, though! Headlining the prelims is a Bantamweight clash between newcomers Movsar Evloev and Sung Woo Choi. This looks like a fight that favours Evloev to me; Choi has far less experience against dangerous opposition and Evloev looks like a dangerous prospect with a hell of a takedown and top game. I’ll take Evloev via a pretty clear-cut decision, or a potential late stoppage here.

At Welterweight, Sultan Aliev returns to face longtime veteran Keita Nakamura. It’s a tricky fight to pick given Nakamura is 16 years into his professional career and far past his prime, while Aliev is not the best athlete and is somewhat of a plodding grinder. Despite Nakamura’s advanced age and shopworn nature I like him to win this one; Aliev isn’t an explosive fighter like Anthony Martin, Elizeu Zaleski or Tom Breese, and I think Nakamura can drag him to the ground and deal with him there, probably catching a submission.

In another Welterweight fight, veteran Alexander Yakovlev faces newcomer Alex da Silva Coelho, a late replacement for Teemu Packalen. Silva Coelho has a gaudy record – 20-1 – but he hasn’t really fought anyone of note and while Yakovlev hasn’t fought since 2016, I could definitely see him grinding a decision out over the newcomer. I’d give Silva Coelho a puncher’s chance due to his apparent athletic ability, but I’m going for Yakovlev here.

At Heavyweight, Marcin Tybura faces Shamil Abdurakhimov in a battle of usually slow-paced grinders. I can’t say I’m excited to see this one based on their previous outings inside the Octagon, but I like Tybura to pick up the win based on his superior speed and a more varied striking game. Tybura by decision is my pick.

Michal Oleksiejczuk is a surprising choice for a prelim fight given his last win came violently over Gian Villante, but indeed, he’ll face Gadzhimurad Antigulov at 205lbs in the second fight on this card. A grappler by trade, Antigulov was last seen in a violent KO loss to Ion Cutelaba, and I worry for him here given Oleksiejczuk’s clear striking skills and power. Oleksiejczuk’s ground game is a bit of a question mark, but I think he can take out Antigulov before it comes to that. My pick is Oleksiejczuk via first round knockout.

Finally at Lightweight, flashy newcomer Rafael Fiziev takes on a formerly hyped prospect in Magomed Mustafaev. An incredibly powerful grappler, Mustafaev ran through Piotr Hallmann and Joe Proctor with his top game, but then took a taste of his own medicine from Kevin Lee and hasn’t fought since. Fiziev is an unbelievably explosive striker, but I just don’t think he has the experience to deal with a grappler like Mustafaev, assuming the Russian hasn’t completely lost it during his time off. I’ll go with Mustafaev via decision.