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UFC Fight Night 150: Jacare vs. Hermansson - Predictions and Picks

Scott Newman
SENIOR ANALYST
Top 5 / Top 10
6.93K   //    23 Apr 2019, 22:13 IST

Jacare Souza takes on Jack Hermansson in this week's Fight Night main event
Jacare Souza takes on Jack Hermansson in this week's Fight Night main event

The UFC’s latest event takes place from Fort Lauderdale, Florida this Saturday, and interestingly enough it’s the first UFC show under the ESPN banner to be moved from the ESPN network onto the ESPN+ streaming service.

The reason for this? Most likely the switch in the main event, as a Middleweight fight between title contenders Yoel Romero and Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza was scrapped due to an injury to Romero, and replaced by a fight between Souza and the lower-ranked Jack Hermansson.

It’s still a relatively interesting card though, with some solid fights and entertaining contenders up and down the night.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 150: Jacare vs. Hermansson.

#1 Jacare Souza vs. Jack Hermansson

Jacare is coming off a big win over Chris Weidman
Jacare is coming off a big win over Chris Weidman

Okay, so let’s be fair to the UFC to begin things; when Yoel Romero was forced out of this fight, it was always going to be hard for the promotion to find a suitable replacement, especially given Jacare’s a veteran who’s faced the majority of the upper echelon of the Middleweight division already.

And so Hermansson – who’s on a 3-fight winning streak and is coming off the biggest win of his career over David Branch – was as decent a choice as any.

With that said, to me this looks unfortunately like a major squash match in favour of Jacare. I’m not stating that Hermansson is a bad fighter by any means; he’s ranked #10 in the world right now and he’s improved both his striking and grappling hugely since arriving in the UFC in 2016. And his lanky frame – 6’1” with a 77” reach – makes him a tricky opponent for a lot of 185lbers inside the UFC.

The problem for him here though is that he’s facing Jacare, who remains probably the best submission threat in the Middleweight division, and stylistically it’s hard for me to imagine a way in which Hermansson can win this fight.

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I just don’t think Hermansson will want to grapple with the Brazilian point blank – he’s best from top position, but while his grappling has improved to the point where he was able to tap out Branch in their fight, Jacare is on a whole different level to that.

We’re also less than a year removed from seeing Hermansson largely dominated by Thales Leites – essentially a poor man’s Jacare – on the ground, although he did recover to TKO Leites late on.

Could he outstrike Jacare? Theoretically, I guess so. He does have a pretty massive reach advantage of 5”, and if he could find a way to keep Souza at the end of his punches then it could be tricky for Jacare to get inside to take him down.

With that said though, Jacare’s striking has developed massively over the years and outside of Robert Whittaker, it’s hard to name an opponent who’s actually outstruck him recently. And his most recent win was by knockout and came against Chris Weidman, who I’d argue is a better striker than Hermansson and he also has a 78” reach, one inch longer than the Swedish fighter.

Jacare’s chin is also rock-solid, with his only TKO loss since arriving in the UFC coming against Whittaker.

Hermansson is a solid underdog in this fight purely because Jacare could begin to slow down at any time given he’s now 39 years old and has been around for years, but I just don’t see ‘The Joker’ pulling off the upset this weekend.

I don’t think his defensive grappling will be enough to defend Jacare’s takedowns and I’m not sure he’s got enough in his bag of tricks to survive the Brazilian on the ground. I think this one goes pretty quickly and I’ll take Jacare via first-round submission, probably an armbar.

The Pick: Jacare via first round submission

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