UFC Fight Night 150: Jacare vs. Hermansson - Predictions and Picks

#3 Alex Oliveira vs. Mike Perry

Mike Perry is one of the UFC's most exciting prospects

Okay, so this Welterweight tilt sounds like a ton of fun. Sure, both men are coming off losses, and Perry is taking the fight on relatively late notice as a replacement for Jingliang Li, but who cares really? The fact is that both Oliveira and Perry are highly reliable action fighters, with 14 UFC wins between them with just 3 of those victories going the distance.

The UFC were once looking to push Perry as a potential contender, giving him showcase fights on FOX against Alan Jouban, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Max Griffin, but unfortunately for the promotion ‘Platinum’ ended up on the wrong end of the decision in all three of those fights.

Essentially, by the midway point of last year it appeared that Perry was the modern-day equivalent of Phil Baroni – a massively entertaining and charismatic power puncher who was also hugely limited as a fighter.

Perry appeared to show signs of turning that around though when he outpointed the tough Paul Felder last July, but then slipped back into his wild old ways with his submission loss to Donald Cerrone in November.

He’s clearly got talent – his chin is made of granite, he throws with ludicrous power and his leg kicks are also powerful – but he still tends to get overly aggressive in his striking and his ground game appears to be porous.

Oliveira to be fair is an equally wild striker at times, although I’d say he’s perhaps a little more technical than Perry. What worries me for Perry in this fight though is that ‘Cowboy’ is a very dangerous submission grappler, and his takedowns aren’t half bad either.

He was submitted by Gunnar Nelson in his last fight, but there’s no shame in that, and anyone who can tap out Carlos Condit has to have some serious submission skill.

What makes this fight is interesting is the fact that Oliveira’s been open to wild exchanges before, most notably in his fight with Yancy Medeiros – a legendary brawl that saw both men hurt badly before Medeiros finally took Oliveira out in the third round.

And while he’s got knockout power – we saw him destroy Ryan LaFlare with one punch for instance – I’m not sure it’d be smart for anyone to trade off with Perry punch-for-punch.

I’m leaning towards Oliveira here as he’s simply a more varied striker and he’s got a massive advantage on the ground, plus I do think he could take at least one or two big shots from Perry without being knocked out.

Perry might surprise us with a more varied attack and if that’s the case this might be a close fight, but even then I think Oliveira’s got the size and skill to get him to the ground and take him out there.

The Pick: Oliveira via third round submission