UFC Fight Night 157: Andrade vs. Zhang - Predictions and Picks

#2 Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos vs. Li Jingliang

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos is on a tremendous run at 170lbs

I’ll be honest and say that I fully expected Zaleski to be given a big step up following his March win over Curtis Millender; he’s currently on a 7 fight win streak at 170lbs and dispatched the dangerous Millender with ease to break into the top 15, but then to be fair, the majority of the fighters above him are unavailable right now and Li has a reputation for fantastic fights, so here we are.

The last time we saw Li – the first Chinese fighter to really make an impact in the UFC – was incidentally in the promotion’s last visit to China. That fight saw him engage in a wild brawl with David Zawada before finishing him with an insane superkick to the body, affirming a Dong Hyun Kim-esque transformation from a stifling grappler – hence ‘The Leech’ nickname – to a crazy, exciting striker.

In terms of how he matches with Zaleski, though? It might well serve him well to go back to that stifling wrestling-heavy style. As his nickname suggests, ‘Capoeira’ is one of the most dangerous and unorthodox strikers in the Welterweight division. He might look wild when he throws his combinations together – he’s happy to wing all sorts of spinning attacks at his opponents – but he’s more polished than you’d first expect, as we saw when he picked apart Max Griffin last year.

Sure, he’s a huge risktaker on the feet, but his win over Millender also showed some serious smarts – Millender was a tricky fight for him standing, so Zaleski took him down and used his grappling – he’s a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu – to submit the kickboxer in just over two minutes.

For me then, the outcome here depends on how Li decides to fight. As I hinted at earlier, ‘The Leech’ began his UFC career as a wrestling-heavy grappler, as we saw in his fights with David Michaud and Nordine Taleb. That style hardly endeared him to the fans, though, and kept him firmly in the prelim territory.

Since his 2015 loss to Keita Nakamura though, he’s changed his tack, becoming an awkward, wild and heavy-hitting striker. That style has not only netted him 6 wins in 7 fights, 4 of them by stoppage, but it’s also meant the UFC are much more willing to showcase him; his last 4 fights have been on the main card of shows and obviously, he’s in the co-main event here.

Once you get to a certain level, though – on the cusp of the top 15 – it’s perhaps smarter to fight for wins rather than excitement. Which brings us back to this one. Sure, Zaleski looked excellent on the ground against Millender but despite his BJJ black belt we haven’t really seen him in extended grappling sequences and Li has the kind of wrestling that can sap an opponent’s energy, particularly a flashy striker like the Brazilian.

If Li decides to strike, though? His aggressive and wild ways will likely play into the hands of Zaleski and I wouldn’t bet against him ending up unconscious. Essentially Li has more ways to win, I think, but I just can’t trust that he’ll fight the smart fight. I think he’ll trade off wildly with Zaleski and end up getting knocked out as a result, probably quite early on, too.

The Pick: Zaleski Dos Santos via first-round KO