UFC Fight Night 158: 3 reasons why Justin Gaethje will beat Donald Cerrone

#3 Strength of schedule?

Cerrone is only 3 months removed from his crazy fight with Tony Ferguson

Justin Gaethje might’ve gained a reputation for being involved in some crazy wars, but while that’s true, he’s also had a lot of recovery time, too. Since joining the UFC in the summer of 2017, ‘The Highlight’ has fought on 5 occasions, with the quickest turnaround between fights being just over 4 months. And he hasn’t actually had a war in a while – his last two fights have been early knockout victories that didn’t see him take too much damage.

The same can’t be said for Cerrone. There’s a reason why he’s managed to put on a ridiculous 32 fights in his 8-year UFC tenure – an average of 4 per year – and that’s because when he’s healthy, his schedule is absolutely insane. We’re only in September and ‘Cowboy’ has already fought three times, with the Gaethje fight about to be his 4th.

And those fights weren’t exactly cakewalks, either. Sure, he took out Alexander Hernandez quite quickly, but while he defeated Al Iaquinta, he still took a lot of shots across 5 rounds, and his most recent fight against Tony Ferguson was one of the bloodiest and most downright violent in recent memory.

At some stage that kind of schedule has to catch up with Cerrone – and in fact, it did in the past, when he hit a three-fight skid in 2017. Given we’re only just over 3 months removed from that crazy brawl with Ferguson – a brawl that saw Cerrone stopped when his right eye swelled completely shut – it’s hard to believe that ‘Cowboy’ has fully recovered. And that means that Gaethje will be far fresher, and should have the advantage coming into this weekend’s fight.