UFC Fight Night 161: Jedrzejczyk vs. Waterson - Predictions and Picks

#2 Cub Swanson vs. Kron Gracie

Kron Gracie takes a big step up this weekend against Cub Swanson

The UFC clearly aren’t messing around when it comes to booking Kron Gracie. The latest member of MMA’s First Family to debut in the UFC, Kron’s first effort was far superior to the ones put forward by the likes of Rolles and Roger, but there’s still a world of difference between fighting the inconsistent – if talented – Alex Caceres and then stepping in with a veteran like Cub Swanson after just five professional fights.

Of course, that’s underselling ‘Ice Cream Kron’ a bit; like the rest of his family, he’s a massively accomplished grappler, being a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under his legendary father, Rickson Gracie. And he’s not just any black belt, either – Kron won the prestigious ADCC tournament in 2013, and has wins over some of the best grapplers on the planet, from Gary Tonon to Otavio Souza.

As the old adage goes, though, in MMA things are a bit different; punch a black belt in the face and he becomes a brown belt, and so on. That wasn’t an issue against Caceres, but despite the talents of ‘Bruce Leeroy’, Swanson is on another level. One of the best strikers in the 145lbs division at his best, Swanson chains combinations together at a ridiculous rate and throws strikes from unusual angles, something that has allowed him to defeat accomplished strikers like Jeremy Stephens and Dustin Poirier.

With that said, though, it’s not like Kron is a painfully stiff striker as some of his relatives have appeared to be when they’ve fought in the UFC. Kron’s boxing looks pretty sharp; he’s got a solid jab and while he’s not going to be mistaken for a professional kickboxer any time soon, he gave Tatsuya Kawajiri some problems on the feet prior to submitting him in their 2016 bout.

More worryingly for Swanson, it does appear that ‘Killer Cub’ is now on a downward spiral. You’ve got to go back to his April 2017 win over Artem Lobov to find his last win – he’s currently on a four-fight slide – and while he took the dangerous Shane Burgos to a split decision in his last outing, he’s been taking more shots than he ever took a few years ago, seems to get hurt in most of his fights these days, and generally appears much slower than he once did.

And he’s also shown a penchant for finding himself in tricky situations on the ground, too. Swanson is a BJJ black belt in his own right, but 7 of his 10 losses have come by submission and recently, he’s been tapped out twice, by Brian Ortega and Renato Moicano. Both men are strong grapplers in their own right, but neither is on the same level as Kron Gracie.

Basically for me this comes down to two questions: firstly, how far gone is Swanson? At nearly 36 years old there’s no denying he’s lost a step – it’s hardly surprising given he’s had some serious wars in a 36-fight career – and if he’s genuinely coming to the end of his career then I can see him coming out tentatively and being taken down and submitted by Gracie.

The second question though is how good is Gracie, really? The win over Caceres was good but as I’ve said, Caceres is notoriously inconsistent. The skills appear to be there for Kron but he just hasn’t gone through any adversity yet. With that said, he’s not completely unused to losing – he’s lost plenty of grappling matches and has even been tapped before.

In the end I just can’t trust a 35-year old Swanson who’s on a 4-fight losing streak. Even if Kron doesn’t quite turn out to be the real deal, I think he’ll impress here by getting inside Swanson, forcing him into the cage, taking him down and submitting him. To see Cub retire afterwards wouldn’t shock me either.

The Pick: Gracie via first round submission