UFC Fight Night 161: Jedrzejczyk vs. Waterson - Predictions and Picks

#3 Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas

Mackenzie Dern makes her return this weekend after more than a year away from the UFC

It’s been a long time since we’ve seen Mackenzie Dern – she’s been out since May 2018 – and while she’s come under a lot of criticism already in her short UFC career, I’m glad to see her back. Simply put, she’s one of the most talented grapplers in the world at 115lbs and if she can really focus in on MMA following her break – she became a mother in her time away – she might have the potential to become a contender.

Where has that criticism come from, then? Well, the barbs that have been aimed her way usually try to claim that she isn’t taking MMA seriously and she’d rather be surfing. Judging by her Instagram, she clearly enjoys surfing, but the ‘not taking MMA seriously’ theory largely comes from the fact that she’s missed weight on 3 occasions in just 7 fights.

That isn’t great, but surely it just points at a need for her to probably be fighting at 125lbs rather than 115lbs? Sure, she isn’t a svelte 115lbs, but then female fighters looking as ripped as their male counterparts are few and far between – and when they do appear, they tend to be accused (usually unfairly) of steroid use. In all honesty, it feels like Dern can’t really win in that sense.

At any rate, she’s returning to the UFC at 115lbs again and we’ll find out at weigh-in time whether that’s the correct call for her. What have we seen from her thus far? Her strength is clearly in her grappling game; like Kron Gracie she’s massively credentialed and accomplished in the world of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and like Kron she’s a former ADCC grappling champion.

Her striking isn’t as great, but she does throw punches with big power – just ask Amanda Cooper, who got dropped with a huge right hook en route to a rear naked choke loss – and while she also isn’t the most technical in terms of her takedowns, she was able to do enough in the wrestling department to pick up a UFC debut win over Ashley Yoder.

Opponent Ribas looks like a good match for her, too. Sure, she won her UFC debut impressively, choking out Emily Whitmire, but she’s also almost as inexperienced at 7-1 and from what I’ve seen of her, she’s more of a grappling-based fighter than a striker – even if she has three TKO wins on her ledger.

That makes me suspect she won’t be able to stop Mackenzie’s takedowns – and even if she can, she’s probably likely to engage her on the mat on at least a couple of occasions. That should be a mistake against a grappler of Dern’s quality and so I’m taking Dern to win this one via tapout. Hopefully she makes weight now, too.

The Pick: Dern via first round submission