UFC Fight Night 164: Blachowicz vs. Jacare - Predictions and Picks

#3 Charles Oliveira vs. Jared Gordon

Can Charles Oliveira pick up his 6th win in a row?

For me, this one is a piece of baffling matchmaking from the UFC. Oliveira – the holder of the record for most submission victories in UFC history with 13, even above the likes of Demian Maia and Royce Gracie – is currently riding a 5-fight win streak and hasn’t seen a fight go the distance since 2014. Essentially, ‘Do Bronx’ is probably in the form of his career right now.

Which is why it’s so confusing that he’s been matched with Gordon, a somewhat nondescript fighter who bounced back from two TKO losses to edge the equally nondescript Dan Moret in June via decision. Sure, the fight was an exciting affair that saw Gordon perform well both on the ground and on the feet, but Oliveira should’ve been given a step up the ladder here and arguably, Gordon is the lowest-level opponent he’s taken on since 2017.

‘Flash Gordon’ is a pretty solid fighter in all areas; a classic jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none, his best attribute is probably his boxing, both from range and in the clinch. In his first UFC win over Brazilian veteran Hacran Dias for instance, he was able to beat his opponent up with crisp combinations, although he wasn’t able to pick up a finish.

The problem for him is that he simply can’t rely on his boxing to win all of the time because of two reasons. Firstly, his chin isn’t great – he was arguably beating Joaquim Silva in their fight before succumbing to some big punches late in the third – and his takedown defense isn’t that strong either, as he usually ends up trying to fend off submission attempts on the ground at some point during his fights.

That just isn’t going to wash against Oliveira. ‘Do Bronx’ can be knocked out, but he’s only gone down to really heavy hitters like Paul Felder or Cub Swanson, and Gordon just doesn’t seem to carry big power in his hands. More to the point, he’s a good enough striker with long range – 74” reach to Gordon’s 68” – that it’ll mean ‘Flash’ has to come inside to catch him. And that will land him right into Oliveira’s wheelhouse.

If Oliveira gets Gordon down I think this fight will be done. I know Gordon fended off submissions against the likes of Moret and Dias, but let’s be frank – they’re not on the same level as Oliveira when it comes to dangerous submission attempts. There’s a reason this guy has 13 tapouts to his name in the UFC – and I fully expect that to turn into 14 after Saturday is over.

The Pick: Oliveira via first round submission