UFC Fight Night 166: Blaydes vs Dos Santos - Predictions and Picks

#2 Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Michael Chiesa

Can Michael Chiesa grind out a win over Rafael Dos Anjos?

This is a big Welterweight fight because, with a win, Chiesa would almost certainly enter into title contention; Dos Anjos isn’t quite what he was a few years ago, but he’s still one of the most dangerous fighters out there at 170lbs and a win over him means more than a win over almost any other fighter in the division.

So can the TUF 15 winner pull this one-off? It’s a tricky fight to call in my eyes and should come down to whether Chiesa – a former Lightweight – has the strength and power to wear Dos Anjos out in a similar fashion to how the most recent fighters to beat him did.

‘RDA’ has had a somewhat up-and-down run since moving to Welterweight in 2017; he’s defeated Tarec Saffiedine, Neil Magny, Robbie Lawler, and Kevin Lee, but was well beaten by Colby Covington, Kamaru Usman, and Leon Edwards. Essentially, he’s beaten three striking-based fighters not renowned for their wrestling and strength, and lost to three bigger, stronger Welterweights who are amongst the best wrestlers in the division.

Lee is the outlier and perhaps the fighter most worth looking at in terms of this fight; like Chiesa and RDA himself, he moved up from 155lbs after struggling to make the Lightweight limit, and like Chiesa, he’s largely known for a game that heavily relies on his power and wrestling. But after a fast start, he blew up entirely against Dos Anjos and wound up being submitted after looking completely exhausted.

So can RDA drag Chiesa into deep waters and drown him as he did to ‘The Motown Phenom’? I’m betting on no. Firstly, while Lee defeated Chiesa in their fight in 2017, I’m not sure he’s actually a better overall grappler than ‘Maverick’; he may be a better wrestler, but Chiesa’s positioning, patience, and back-taking skills are all excellent.

More to the point, when Lee moved up to 170lbs, he packed on a lot of muscle to do so, ending up with a hugely stocky physique at 5’9”. Chiesa, on the other hand, has a far bigger frame, and at 6’1” he looks much more of a natural Welterweight than ‘The Motown Phenom’ – and that means he’s a more natural Welterweight than Dos Anjos, too.

For me this is a winnable fight for Dos Anjos if he can somehow force Chiesa to stand and strike with him, but for all his grappling skills, he was unable to do that against Usman, Covington, and Edwards – and I’m willing to bet that Chiesa is almost certainly as good a wrestler as ‘Rocky’, who was initially known as a kickboxer.

Overall I expect this one to follow the same pattern as those fights; Dos Anjos might have some success standing and may come close to a submission or two, but overall I think Chiesa has the power and strength from the clinch and on the ground to hold him down and out-position him, landing enough strikes and gaining enough dominance along the way to take a decision.

The Pick: Chiesa via unanimous decision