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This weekend sees the UFC return to New Zealand for the first time since June 2017, and while nobody is going to mistake UFC Fight Night 168 for a high-end card, it’s certainly got an intriguing main event in the form of Lightweights Paul Felder and Dan Hooker doing battle.
Rest of the card is full of Australian or Kiwi fighters, meaning the crowd at least should be super-hot throughout the night, particularly if their local favorites can pull off some big victories.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 168: Felder vs. Hooker.
#1 Paul Felder vs. Dan Hooker
The UFC’s Lightweight division is a tricky one to read at the minute; the fact that the division’s champion, Khabib Nurmagomedov is also one of the promotion’s biggest drawing cards means that making fights for him is a lot trickier than it is to make fights for say, Welterweight champ Kamaru Usman. That means that the handful of fighters at the top of the division - the likes of Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje are much more protective of their spots than their equivalents elsewhere.
What does that mean for the two fighters about to face off this weekend? It means that they’re going to have to do something really impressive in order to move up the ladder any further. We’ve already seen an example of this issue in the fact that Hooker’s request to fight Poirier was turned down – hence why this match was made instead.
That’s not to be disrespectful of Felder. ‘The Irish Dragon’ might be well known for his commentating skills these days, but he’s also a fantastic fighter and an outstanding striker in particular. He’s 5-0 in his last 5 fights at 155lbs and most recently, he edged out Edson Barboza in an ultra-close fight to call, avenging an earlier loss from 2015.
Hooker though can argue that he picked up the bigger wins in 2019 by defeating James Vick and Al Iaquinta, both of whom had main evented UFC shows in recent times. ‘The Hangman’ has developed his game over the years since he joined the UFC, transforming from a lanky submission expert into a dangerous kickboxer who knows exactly how to make the most of his long, 6’0” frame.
The big question for me in this fight is how Felder will deal with that length and range. ‘The Irish Dragon’ is only an inch shorter than his Kiwi opponent and is only giving up an inch and a half of reach, but Hooker has become so adept at using his jab, his knee strikes and his kicks that Felder may still have trouble getting inside to land anything major.
Even if he does, can he really turn Hooker’s lights out? We saw ‘The Hangman’ take some ridiculous punishment at the hands of Edson Barboza in 2018 – an almost inhuman beating – and yet he kept on coming for three rounds before a merciful referee stoppage.
Equally though, Felder is incredibly tough himself; he’s never been stopped before outside of a doctor’s stoppage due to a cut in his 2016 clash with Francisco Trinaldo. That means that the likelihood of a stoppage here seems slim, so I’d expect this one to go the distance.
So who will take it? While Hooker has looked tremendous in using his reach and length recently, and he’s also fighting at home, I’m giving the advantage to Felder here. Firstly, he’s a training partner of Donald Cerrone – a man who fights in a very similar way to Hooker, meaning he may well have some kind of idea of how ‘The Hangman’ is going to approach things.
Secondly, Hooker’s victims all come with a caveat; Iaquinta is primarily a boxer who simply didn’t have the tools to deal with Hooker’s kicking game, Vick has a severely compromised chin, Gilbert Burns was much shorter, and so on. Felder will be the first fully rounded, dangerous striker ‘The Hangman’ has faced since Barboza, and we all know how that one ended.
I think we’ll likely see a round or perhaps two rounds of Felder working to gauge the distance – rounds he may well lose – before he finds his range to take over down the stretch. I wouldn’t be shocked at a split decision if one of the later rounds is close, but I’m betting on ‘The Irish Dragon’ to do enough to win this one.
The Pick: Felder via split decision
#2 Jimmy Crute vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Judging on what we’ve seen previously from these two Light-Heavyweights, the likelihood of this one going the distance seems to be somewhere between slim and none. Crute has yet to see the end of the third round in his UFC career, while Oleksiejczuk’s last 3 fights have ended before the end of the second round.
Interestingly enough, both men are coming off losses, but in a division that appears to be in constant flux, the fact that they’re still so young – 23 and 24 respectively – means that either man could develop into a future title contender. So who takes this one?
We probably know a little more about Oleksiejczuk’s skills. The Polish fighter is an excellent striker who hits hard, particularly with his body shots – as we saw in his win over Gian Villante in 2019. We also know from his later overturned win over Khalil Rountree that he’s powerful for 205lbs, particularly in the clinch, and his chin appears solid enough.
On the ground he’s more questionable; Ovince St. Preux caught him in his trademark Von Flue choke, and while he’s definitely an expert at the move, it’s still a low-percentage submission that should theoretically be avoidable by savvy ground fighters. It is worth noting though that ‘Lord’ was destroying ‘OSP’ up until he was submitted.
Crute also has KO power – we saw him spark Sam Alvey out in one strike and also hurt Paul Craig on numerous occasions – but he’s a cruder striker than Oleksiejczuk who may well be open to sharper counterpunches. Where he appears to be stronger is on the ground; he went hold-for-hold with Craig before submitting the Scotsman – a wily grappler in his own right – and also held his own with Misha Cirkunov before finally succumbing to a nasty Peruvian necktie.
For me this depends on what Crute looks to do; if he tries to grapple with Oleksiejczuk from the off then it could well be a winnable fight for him, but I’d definitely worry for him if he chooses to trade off with the Polish striker. ‘The Brute’ probably needs to ignore a bloodthirsty crowd who will want him to exchange blows, but realistically, that’s harder than it sounds.
I’m leaning towards Oleksiejczuk here; I was impressed with him against OSP even though he lost, and he appears to be a monster from the clinch as well from distance. Given Crute isn’t a renowned wrestler and can be sloppy himself on the ground, I’m just not sure that he’s got enough to deal with ‘Lord’ in all areas.
The Pick: Oleksiejczuk via second round TKO
#3 Ben Sosoli vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima
This battle of undersized Heavyweights – Sosoli is 6’0” and somehow weighs 264lbs, while De Lima stands at 6’2” and comes in at over 250lbs – has the potential to be a fun, explosive bout with a violent finish, but unfortunately it also has the potential to be a slow-paced slopfest that won’t really entertain anyone. Which way will it go? It’s honestly a coin flip.
Sosoli is simply unproven at this level. Signed by the UFC in 2019 after going to a No Contest during his lone fight on Dana White’s Contender Series, the Aussie debuted in the promotion with a terrible fight against the much-maligned Greg Hardy, basically acting like a heavy bag for two rounds before finally winging some punches in the third.
Sure, the fight was declared a No Contest in the end, but only because Hardy illegally used an inhaler between rounds; if that hadn’t been the case, Sosoli would’ve lost a lopsided decision. ‘The Combat Wombat’ has plenty of KO’s on his record, but they were all against questionable opposition – and worryingly, he has a couple of losses by decision too.
De Lima on the other hand has plenty of experience at the UFC level. He fought on the third season of TUF Brazil and has since put together a record of 5-4 in the promotion, with his strengths and weaknesses being pretty clear. Essentially, he’s a heavy handed, classic Muay Thai striker with a penchant for takedowns and some thudding ground-and-pound with some rudimentary submissions, but he’s also a poor defensive grappler, hence four losses by submission.
Thankfully for him here, it appears unlikely that Sosoli will shoot for any takedowns, so to me the question becomes whether or not the Brazilian can avoid being hurt by his Australian opponent early on. If he can, then he can probably use his low kicks and punches – similarly to how Hardy did – to pick him apart for a decision. Can De Lima KO Sosoli? It’s not impossible, but given ‘The Combat Wombat’ looks to come from the Mark Hunt school of hard heads, I doubt it.
For me this should be De Lima’s fight to lose, assuming he doesn’t gas out, as I think he’s got advantages in all areas and unless he gets caught cleanly, he’ll have enough to ease through for a decision.
The Pick: De Lima via unanimous decision
#4 Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Yan Xiaonan
It doesn’t seem all that long ago that Kowalkiewicz – at that point undefeated – was facing off with fellow Polish striker Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the UFC Strawweight title, but in fact it’s well over three years ago since that bout now. And since then, things haven’t been kind to her; she’s on a three-fight losing streak, coming up short to Jessica Andrade, Michelle Waterson and Alexa Grasso.
This is a big chance for her to bounce back, though. Xiaonan has an impressive record of 11-1 and is 4-0 in the UFC, but she’s also not close to the level of Kowalkiewicz’s last three opponents. So can the Polish favorite get back on the winning track, or will ‘Fury’ use her as a stepping stone to bigger things?
For the most part, Kowalkiewicz’s game is built around her strong fundamentals in all areas. She’s a decent striker, decent grappler and pretty strong in the clinch, too – it’s been the fact that she isn’t necessarily world-class in any area that’s cost her in all of her losses, which have all come against notably better athletes. Essentially, she doesn’t hit that hard, can be submitted and can be taken down, but only by the best, otherwise she’ll comfortably outwork her opponents, as she did against the likes of Randa Markos and Jodie Esquibel.
This fight is intriguing because from what Xiaonan has shown in the UFC, she’s got a very similar skill-set to that of her opponent. She strikes well – enough to outpoint Angela Hill in a fight that largely stayed vertical – and also has some strong takedowns, but unlike those fighters who’ve beaten Kowalkiewicz recently, she doesn’t offer the brutal power of Andrade or the technical skill of Waterson.
Perhaps the closest opponent to compare her to would be Alexa Grasso, but then I’d argue that the Mexican’s striking fundamentals are better – and she appears to be a slightly larger Strawweight, too. And of course, while she lost to Grasso, Kowalkiewicz gave her a hell of a fight along the way.
The fight that makes me lean towards Kowalkiewicz taking this one is her 2016 clash with former UFC champion Rose Namajunas. That fight saw Kowalkiewicz largely losing a striking battle early on, but she was able to adjust and found that the clinch was a sweet spot for her, and from there she worked ‘Thug Rose’ over with a lot of close-quarter striking for a decision.
I firmly believe Kowalkiewicz is a much better fighter than her recent record suggests; she’s not going to become a title contender again I don’t think as there are too many better athletes in the division, but she’s a hell of a gatekeeper and I don’t think Xiaonan has the overall ability to get past her this weekend.
The Pick: Kowalkiewicz via unanimous decision
#5 Brad Riddell vs. Magomed Mustafaev
New Zealand’s Brad Riddell – who trains out of the same camp as Israel Adesanya and Dan Hooker – made his UFC debut back in October and was able to defeat Australia’s Jamie Mullarkey – a fighter with a similar experience level to that of ‘Quake’. Given the UFC’s penchant for matching home country fighters in favourable ways then, this fight seems utterly baffling to me.
Riddell looked good in his fight with Mullarkey, showing skills on the feet and on the ground to suggest that he’s a solid athlete who could probably have some success at the lower end of the UFC. But to put him in with Mustafaev in his second fight is madness in my eyes.
Yet another badass to hail from the Republic of Dagestan, Mustafaev has been in the UFC since 2015. His lone loss came at the hands of Kevin Lee – a high level contender – and even that one came after the Russian had seen some early success before succumbing to the wrestling of ‘The Motown Phenom’. Outside of that, he destroyed Piotr Hallmann, Joe Proctor and Rafael Fiziev in devastating fashion.
More of a striker than countrymen Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev, Mustafaev loves to throw kicks. He’s extremely adept at landing vicious leg kicks, but the spinning back kick is also a devastating weapon that he uses – ask Fiziev, who was knocked out by one in brutal fashion last April. Of course, he can grapple too – showing some beautiful trips and throws primarily from the clinch – but that appears to be a fall-back plan for him if his striking game isn’t working.
I hate to write off any fighter in the UFC – particularly one who’s fighting at home – but I just don’t see how Riddell wins this fight. He appears to be slower than his opponent, and while he doesn’t appear to have any major holes in his game he seems to be miles behind Mustafaev in all areas. If he makes it to a decision I’d be surprised, but I see Mustafaev stopping him before that.
The Pick: Mustafaev via second round TKO
#6 Kevin Aguilar vs. Zubaira Tukhugov
A training partner of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Tukhugov has been in the UFC for a long time now; he debuted back in 2014, which makes it amazing that he’s only had 5 fights in the Octagon thus far. Of course, that’s because his run has been controversial. ‘Warrior’ has struggled to obtain a Visa at times, and has also been suspended twice – once for a positive PED test, and once for his part in the wild brawl that took place after Nurmagomedov’s win over Conor McGregor.
A real all-rounder, Tukhugov has excellent skills in all areas, just as you’d expect from a product of Dagestan. He’s an excellent wrestler capable of taking most of his opponents down, and he’s also got considerable talent on the feet, as evidenced by his 2014 KO of Ernest Chavez.
Where ‘Warrior’ has struggled has been with his gas tank, primarily. He was all over Lerone Murphy at UFC 242 before running out of steam, and while a draw was perhaps unfair to the Dagestani – who appeared to clearly take two rounds – had he displayed better cardio, he almost definitely would’ve picked up a win if not a finish.
The question then is whether Aguilar – a hard-nosed fighter who graduated from Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018 is the kind of fighter who can take a bit of a beating in the early rounds before coming back to outwork ‘Warrior’ for a decision. ‘The Angel of Death’ is a pretty heavy hitter, but in all honesty he’s not a classic KO puncher at the UFC level and his toughness appears to be his greatest asset.
This one feels like a tough one to pick purely because I don’t trust Tukhugov down the stretch; he’s not the best finisher and Aguilar has only lost twice, with the lone finish coming at the hands of a notable heavy puncher in Leonard Garcia. I think the Dagestani should have enough skills to be able to outpoint Aguilar, but if he gasses out again, ‘The Angel of Death’ will almost certainly take advantage.
The Pick: Tukhugov via unanimous decision
#7 The Prelims: ESPN+ card
Headlining this weekend’s prelims – also to be broadcast on ESPN+ – is a fun-sounding Welterweight tilt between Jake Matthews and Emil Weber Meek. Australia’s Matthews has never quite hit the heights that his early potential suggested, but he’s still a big, powerful fighter with knockout power and some underrated grappling chops. I worry for him in this fight, though; ‘Valhalla’ is one of the few fighters who might be more powerful than Matthews at 170lbs and while his losses to Kamaru Usman and Bartosz Fabinski – particularly the second one – showed his limitations, he feels like the kind of fighter who could give ‘The Celtic Kid’ some problems. I’m going with Matthews as I feel like he’s got the better cardio, but this could go either way.
In another Welterweight clash, Aussie Callan Potter takes on China’s Kenan Song. More of a grappler, Potter has a ton of experience to his name but isn’t the best athlete, and his UFC debut saw him stopped very quickly by Jalin Turner. Song meanwhile carries big power in his punches, has three UFC wins to his name, and seems to be much quicker than his opponent. I like Song by decision in this one.
At Flyweight, New Zealand’s own Kai Kara-France takes on veteran Tyson Nam. Kara-France wasn’t expected to do that well in the UFC after his run on TUF but he’s been a pleasant surprise, winning 3 of his 4 fights with his excellent grappling and incredible gas tank. This one looks like a winnable fight for him, too – Nam has some skills but is likely past his prime these days, having come to the UFC a little too late in his career. I like Kara-France by decision.
At Strawweight, Angela Hill returns at very late notice to replace the injured Hannah Goldy in a fight with Thailand’s Loma Lookboonmee. This could be a hell of a striking battle, as Hill is one of the more dangerous women on her feet at 115lbs, while Lookboonmee showed a lot of talent in her UFC debut even if she’s hugely inexperienced. Hill’s experience ought to carry her through here, but I’m not so sure – Lookboonmee has been fighting since she was 7 years old and seems like a truly dangerous prospect. I’ll take the Thai fighter by a surprising decision.
At Welterweight, Maki Pitolo faces Takashi Sato in what sounds like a dangerous fight for Pitolo, who showed very little in his UFC debut – a loss at the hands of Callan Potter. Sato meanwhile was beaten by Belal Muhammad’s grappling in his previous fight, but before that he looked excellent in stopping Ben Saunders violently. I’m not sure Pitolo has the grappling chops to take out Sato so I’ll go with the Japanese fighter by TKO.
Finally at Flyweight, Priscila Cachoeira takes on Shana Dobson. This is likely the last chance saloon for Cachoeira, who is 0-3 in the UFC and has probably only been given this many chances due to her being willing to fight Valentina Shevchenko in the future champion’s 125lbs debut. Dobson has also struggled to establish herself – she’s 1-2 in the UFC – but I think she’s probably got the toughness to edge past Cachoeira via decision.
