UFC Fight Night 168: Felder vs. Hooker - Predictions and Picks

#2 Jimmy Crute vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Jimmy Crute is one of the UFC's top prospects at 205lbs

Judging on what we’ve seen previously from these two Light-Heavyweights, the likelihood of this one going the distance seems to be somewhere between slim and none. Crute has yet to see the end of the third round in his UFC career, while Oleksiejczuk’s last 3 fights have ended before the end of the second round.

Interestingly enough, both men are coming off losses, but in a division that appears to be in constant flux, the fact that they’re still so young – 23 and 24 respectively – means that either man could develop into a future title contender. So who takes this one?

We probably know a little more about Oleksiejczuk’s skills. The Polish fighter is an excellent striker who hits hard, particularly with his body shots – as we saw in his win over Gian Villante in 2019. We also know from his later overturned win over Khalil Rountree that he’s powerful for 205lbs, particularly in the clinch, and his chin appears solid enough.

On the ground he’s more questionable; Ovince St. Preux caught him in his trademark Von Flue choke, and while he’s definitely an expert at the move, it’s still a low-percentage submission that should theoretically be avoidable by savvy ground fighters. It is worth noting though that ‘Lord’ was destroying ‘OSP’ up until he was submitted.

Crute also has KO power – we saw him spark Sam Alvey out in one strike and also hurt Paul Craig on numerous occasions – but he’s a cruder striker than Oleksiejczuk who may well be open to sharper counterpunches. Where he appears to be stronger is on the ground; he went hold-for-hold with Craig before submitting the Scotsman – a wily grappler in his own right – and also held his own with Misha Cirkunov before finally succumbing to a nasty Peruvian necktie.

For me this depends on what Crute looks to do; if he tries to grapple with Oleksiejczuk from the off then it could well be a winnable fight for him, but I’d definitely worry for him if he chooses to trade off with the Polish striker. ‘The Brute’ probably needs to ignore a bloodthirsty crowd who will want him to exchange blows, but realistically, that’s harder than it sounds.

I’m leaning towards Oleksiejczuk here; I was impressed with him against OSP even though he lost, and he appears to be a monster from the clinch as well from distance. Given Crute isn’t a renowned wrestler and can be sloppy himself on the ground, I’m just not sure that he’s got enough to deal with ‘Lord’ in all areas.

The Pick: Oleksiejczuk via second round TKO