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This weekend sees a rare UFC Fight Night card with a title fight as its main event, as Joseph Benavidez faces off with Deiveson Figueiredo for the vacant UFC Flyweight title in Norfolk, Virginia. Unfortunately for the fans, this is about as close to a boxing card as you’ll get from the UFC; there are a couple of intriguing fights on the undercard, but nothing that’s likely to affect any title pictures. Thankfully UFC 248 – a genuinely huge card – is on tap for a week later, so there you go.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 169: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo.
#1 Joseph Benavidez vs. Deiveson Figueiredo
After Henry Cejudo defeated Marlon Moraes to become the UFC’s latest double champion, it seemed pretty obvious that he’d never defend his Flyweight crown again, and with that in mind, it’s tricky to understand why it took the UFC so long to simply come to an understanding with him with regards to dropping the title and crowning a new champion.
Well, over a year after the last Flyweight title fight – Cejudo’s knockout of TJ Dillashaw – here we are. At least there’s no question that both men deserve this opportunity; ignoring a contentious split decision loss to Sergio Pettis, Joseph Benavidez has only ever lost to one man at 125lbs – Demetrious Johnson – and he also holds a win over Cejudo, while Deiveson Figueiredo has just one loss to his name too, dropping a decision to Jussier Formiga in 2019.
This will be Benavidez’s 3rd attempt at claiming UFC gold following two failed attempts against Johnson, so can ‘Joe-B-Wan’ finally get his hands on the big prize? In all honesty, he has to be the favorite coming in. Not only does he have far more experience against high-level opponents than his Brazilian foe, but he also knocked out Formiga last year, just two months after Formiga had beaten Figueiredo.
MMA math doesn’t always work, but in this case, it does appear to bode well for Benavidez. If Formiga had simply used his wrestling to beat ‘The God of War’ then that’d be one thing, but in actuality, the Brazilian struck with Figueiredo for portions of the fight too and had no problem in simply avoiding his power shots and landing counters to set up his takedowns.
Not only is Benavidez a much better striker than Formiga – he’s knocked him out twice, after all – but he’s also a superior wrestler, even if his skill at controlling an opponent from the back isn’t quite on the level of the Brazilian’s. So, does that mean Figueiredo has no chance? Well, not exactly.
The issue for Benavidez here is that he’s now 35 years old, and he’s also been fighting for ages – since 2006 to be exact. The general rule is that top fighters tend to fall off after around a decade at the top, and ‘Joe-B-Wan’ of course debuted in the WEC back in 2008 – just over a decade ago. So while he looked amazing against Formiga a year ago, it’s hard to tell when a sudden decline could begin. After all, he certainly looked a little slower in that loss to Pettis.
Then there’s the fact that Figueiredo appears to hit harder than any other 125lber on the roster. The Brazilian is a huge, ripped Flyweight who throws insane power into his shots, and we saw that when he knocked out the tough John Moraga back in 2018. And while Benavidez throws with good technique, he is susceptible to exchanging bombs at times, which could be a mistake against a guy who hits as hard as ‘The God of War’.
I’m favoring Benavidez here; overall the styles seem to mesh well for him, he has far more experience and the main event slot and the fact that a title is on the line won’t affect him as it could Figueiredo, but I’d certainly give the Brazilian a puncher’s chance. Overall though, I think Benavidez works him over and takes a late stoppage to pick up his first major title.
The Pick: Benavidez via fourth-round TKO
#2 Felicia Spencer vs. Zarah Fairn dos Santos
The Women’s Featherweight division is easily the most under-developed division on the UFC roster, and so it’s a breath of fresh air to see two female fights at 145lbs on the main card of this show. With that said, the nature of the division means that it’s hard to really get a handle on how good these fighters are and really break a fight down.
We saw Felicia Spencer debut in 2019 with an upset of sorts, as she easily outgrappled and submitted the highly-rated Megan Anderson in June. From there she was booked in a nightmare fight against the much larger and far more powerful Cris Cyborg, and while she did well to absorb Cyborg’s strikes and never seemed to be out of the fight, it was a clear-cut loss for her.
France’s Zarah Fairn dos Santos meanwhile also debuted against Anderson – but actually found herself completely outgrappled by the Australian kickboxer, and was eventually submitted with a nicely worked triangle choke. That’s worrying in my opinion; Anderson is clearly a developing fighter who’s making strides in her ground game, but to be dominated by an opponent who was herself dominated on the ground by Spencer doesn’t bode well.
From the footage available, more problems seem to be visible for Fairn, as she appears to be a striker by trade, but not a truly powerful one. Given that the hugely powerful Cyborg couldn’t take out Spencer then, it’s hard to imagine that ‘Infinite’ is going to be capable of pulling it off.
For me this sounds like Spencer’s fight to lose even if she’s equally unproven at the top level. My guess is that she’ll drag Fairn down early and probably slap on a first round choke to get her out of there.
The Pick: Spencer via first-round submission
#3 Ion Cutelaba vs. Magomed Ankalaev
This is easily the second-best fight on the card behind the main event; a clash of two of the best prospects out there at 205lbs that should see the winner vaulted into title contention in what remains a thin division. Given the intensity that both men bring, there likely won’t be a crazier staredown in 2020, either.
Cutelaba has more UFC experience than his Dagestani opponent; ‘The Hulk’ debuted back in 2016 with a loss to Misha Cirkunov, and since then his career has largely followed a pattern – he destroys his less athletic foes with brutal power strikes, but faced with someone a little more technical – Cirkunov, Jared Cannonier and Glover Teixeira – he tends to start quickly but fade, allowing his opponent to take over.
Overall though, the Moldovan fighter has some fantastic skills; he’s a big 205lber, carries insane power in his strikes, and his takedowns are pretty strong as well, even if he prefers to throw bombs at his opponent. The question then is whether Ankalaev fits into the category with Teixeira, Cirkunov et al, or whether he’s more Henrique Da Silva or Jonathan Wilson.
Judging by what we’ve seen from him in the Octagon, I’d be tempted to say he’s as good as those higher-level fighters. He lost his UFC debut to Paul Craig in simply ludicrous fashion – he was beating the Scotsman from pillar to post before somehow falling into a last-gasp triangle choke – but since then he’s been perfect, knocking out Marcin Prachnio and Dalcha Lungiambula and outgrappling Klidson Abreu for a decision.
It’s that win over Lungiambula that makes me lean towards Ankalaev in this fight. Like Cutelaba, Lungiambula was a highly explosive, incredibly athletic striker with a tendency to slow down – but against Ankalaev, that hardly mattered. The Dagestani simply took him down and smashed him to pieces over the course of two rounds before finishing him in the third.
Is Cutelaba a better wrestler than Lungiambula? Most likely, but I’m still not convinced he’d be capable of outgrappling Ankalaev, who looks like one of the best wrestlers in the 205lbs division and trains with the Akmat Fight Club, a team responsible for grappling monsters like Frodo Khasbulaev and Magomed Bibulatov.
This could be a tricky one for Ankalaev as he’ll definitely need to watch out for Cutelaba’s power, but I also think it’ll be an eye-opener for everyone to see how good the Dagestani is. I see him as a title contender in 2/3 fights, and this will be his first step closer to that status.
The Pick: Ankalaev via unanimous decision
#4 Megan Anderson vs. Norma Dumont Viana
After her losses to Holly Holm and Felicia Spencer, many fans were ready to write off the prospects of Megan Anderson at the very top of the UFC, even in the ultra-thin Women’s Featherweight division. A notable kickboxer who’d won the Invicta Featherweight title with her striking, the Australian was badly exposed as a below-par grappler by Holm and Spencer, knocking her out of title contention temporarily.
The issue with writing her off though is that she’s still young at just 30 with only 6 years of experience behind her, and in truth, she’s still rounding out her overall game. We saw a snippet of that when she showed much-improved grappling to take out Zarah Fairn last October, and the truth is that she could still do a lot of damage to any fighter in the division with her strikes.
At 6’0”, Anderson is very much a “true” 145lber as opposed to a blown-up 135lber like the majority of the division, and so that means that she ought to be a big favorite over newcomer Viana, who has very little experience – 4 fights in a career that started in 2016 – and doesn’t appear to be anywhere near as big as the Australian.
Viana does appear to be a grappler, primarily, and that means she’s a good test to see whether Anderson has truly begun to close that hole in her game, or whether her win over Fairn was more down to the French fighter not being ready for UFC-level competition. I’m confident in taking Anderson to win this one though, as Viana has such low levels of experience that it’s easy to imagine her suffering from severe ‘Octagon shock’ too.
The Pick: Anderson via first-round KO
#5 Gabriel Silva vs. Kyler Phillips
Both of these Bantamweights will be looking for their first UFC win this weekend; Phillips is making his UFC debut following a 6-1 run on the regional circuit – and a loss to eventual champion Brad Katona on TUF 27 – while Silva debuted back in July 2019 with a tough loss at the hands of the far more experienced Ray Borg.
Given both men are primarily striking-based fighters, with 7 KO’s or TKO’s between them, this could be an exciting opener. Silva appears to be a more boxing-based striker, with a lot of power in his hands. He does train with Team Nogueira which ought to bode well for his grappling game too, but then he was easily controlled by Borg. With that said, Borg is a tremendous wrestler, and so it’s hard to hold that loss against him.
Phillips meanwhile is more of a rounded striker, as he tends to fire a lot of kicks and longer strikes from range, while using a lot of movement and footwork to avoid his opponent’s strikes. Given his penchant for trading, the likelihood of this one hitting the mat seems low, so it should come down to whether the shorter Silva can get inside Phillips’ range to catch him.
This is honestly a toss-up due to the inexperience of both men at this level, but I feel like Silva has fought the slightly better competition and has UFC experience already, so I’ll take him to edge a tight decision.
The Pick: Silva via unanimous decision
#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card
All of this weekend’s prelims will be shown on ESPN+, with the full prelim card still to be confirmed due to some late injury replacements.
It looks like a Middleweight clash between Tom Breese and Brendan Allen will headline, and it’s hard to look past Breese in this one. Allen looks like an explosive prospect out of Roufusport, and he choked out Kevin Holland in impressive fashion last October. The UK’s Breese though – who trains with Firas Zahabi and Georges St. Pierre – could well be in title contention at this point had he not suffered so many niggling injuries. A fantastic technical fighter, Breese hits hard, has a stiff jab and is also excellent on the ground. It’ll be tough but I like Breese to win a decision.
At Heavyweight, Marcin Tybura returns to take on Sergey Spivak. Spivak shocked everyone by rebounding from an awful KO loss at the hands of Walt Harris to choke out Tai Tuivasa last year, but the truth is that he’s still a very limited fighter overall. Tybura, on the other hand, is good in all areas, with only his speed and cardio letting him down in the past. Tybura needs this win as he’s 1-4 in his last 5, but I think he pulls it off by TKO.
Jordan Griffin takes on TJ Brown in a Featherweight clash, with Griffin looking to save his UFC career after two straight losses. Brown is on a 4-fight win streak, but he doesn’t have the experience that Griffin does, which makes this a tough one to pick as all else seems even. I’ll take Griffin to edge a decision.
Also at Featherweight, Aalon Cruz takes on Spike Carlyle in a battle of UFC newcomers. Cruz earned his opportunity by knocking out an opponent with a flying knee on Dana White’s Contender Series, while Carlyle is on a 4-fight win streak. Fights between debutants are always nearly impossible to pick, especially when both guys have a similar level of experience and apparent skill; I’ll take Cruz purely because he may be more comfortable in the UFC setting.
Finally, unbeaten Renzo Gracie student Sean Brady faces Ismail Naurdiev at Welterweight. Brady looked good in his UFC debut, beating tough veteran Court McGee, while Naurdiev stunned everyone by beating Michel Prazeres in a late-notice UFC debut and then outpointed veteran Siyar Bahadurzada in his last fight. This one could be very close as both men are excellent prospects; I’ll take Naurdiev by decision, but it could go either way.
