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#2 Joseph Benavidez vs. Jussier Formiga
It’s surprising to see a non-title Flyweight bout this far up a card in 2019; to be honest many people probably didn’t expect to see male Flyweights competing in the UFC at all by June. But evidently plans have changed, and so it’s expected that the winner of this fight will face Henry Cejudo for the 125lbs title at some point in the future; either that or a fight for the vacant title should Cejudo decide to focus solely on his Bantamweight career now.
At any rate, this is a rematch from a 2013 fight that saw Joseph Benavidez knock out Jussier Formiga in the first round, and I’d bet that if anyone had told fans at the time that the two would be rematching for a potential title shot some six years down the line, they’d probably have been laughed at.
That feeling comes more from Formiga than Benavidez, who probably would’ve held the UFC title by now had it not been for the dominant reign of Demetrious Johnson, a reign famously broken by Cejudo last summer. In fact, there’s probably an argument that Benavidez should’ve been given the nod in his inaugural title fight with Johnson back in 2012, but then ‘Mighty Mouse’ answered the question as to who was superior with a violent knockout in their 2013 rematch.
Benavidez is quite old for a smaller fighter now at 34 years old, and he’s definitely slowed down somewhat, although if any fighter could afford to slow down slightly it’s him, as in his prime he was one of the fastest men to ever step into the Octagon. That slowdown was evident in a tight decision loss last year to Sergio Pettis, but if anyone thought Benavidez was done, his recent wins over Alex Perez and Dustin Ortiz probably made them think again, as he looked as good as he’s ever looked in those fights.
Formiga is another senior citizen at 125lbs; also 34 years old, the Brazilian came into the UFC in 2012 with a big reputation as the division’s premier grappler, but knockout losses to Benavidez and John Dodson seemed to highlight a huge weakness for him. Not only was he an unnatural, stiff striker, but he was also apparently glacially slow in comparison to superior athletes like Dodson and Benavidez.
Since the Benavidez loss though, Formiga has been impressive. His striking game has come on leaps and bounds now to the point that he was able to hold his own with the likes of Pettis and Deiveson Figueiredo, and while he’s still not a great athlete, he’s now able to use his improved striking to set up his takedowns.
On the ground, the Brazilian is still an absolute wizard, too. His back control game is arguably the best in the UFC, period, and if he’s able to come close to getting a rear naked choke sunk – as Ulka Sasaki and Ben Nguyen both found out – the fight is likely to be over moments later.
The way this fight should go is quite simple, really: if Formiga’s striking has improved enough to the point where he’s able to have some success with Benavidez standing, then he could well rattle the American to the point where he’s able to get a takedown. And even if Formiga can’t submit the Team Alpha Male star, he could well keep him under control to earn a decision.
If he’s not able to stand with Benavidez though, then the fight likely ends in the same way it did in 2013 – with Formiga out cold. It’s a trickier one to pick than you might think simply because Benavidez isn’t the best striker technically – he’s very fast and hits very hard, but he does leave himself open somewhat.
With that said, he’s still a downright fantastic wrestler, and for as much as Formiga has improved his stand-up, he’s still not very fast for a 125lber and the fighters he’s beaten – Figueiredo, Pettis, Ortiz, et al – simply aren’t as quick as Benavidez either. Throw in the fact that power is the last thing to leave a fighter, and I like Benavidez’s chances here, although I wouldn’t count Formiga out either.
The Pick: Benavidez via second-round TKO
