UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez - Predictions and Picks

It's a big night of fights on ESPN on Saturday with Francis Ngannou vs. Cain Velasquez
It's a big night of fights on ESPN on Saturday with Francis Ngannou vs. Cain Velasquez

#4 Alex Caceres vs. Kron Gracie

Can Kron Gracie live up to the hype in his UFC debut?
Can Kron Gracie live up to the hype in his UFC debut?

The Gracie family are undoubtedly considered MMA royalty by fans of the sport, but the truth is that nobody carrying the Gracie name has succeeded in the UFC since Royce first departed the Octagon back in the mid-1990s. Since then we’ve seen Rolles and Roger both fail miserably in their attempts to usher in a new era for the Gracie name, while the aged veteran Renzo was also destroyed in his lone UFC appearance.

Kron Gracie will now attempt to change all of that. The youngest son of the legendary Rickson Gracie, it comes as no surprise to learn that Kron is a whiz in grappling. A black belt in judo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, he won the gold medal in the 2013 edition of the prestigious Abu Dhabi grappling tournament and has a long list of other grappling achievements to his name.

But he’s no rookie in MMA, either. Sure, he hasn’t fought since December 2016, but when he did fight, he defeated longtime Japanese veterans Hideo Tokoro and Tatsuya Kawajiri, good victories by anyone’s standards. And he didn’t just use his BJJ, either – against Kawajiri, in particular, he looked excellent standing, working over ‘The Crusher’ with boxing combinations from the clinch and from the outside.

Training with the Diaz brothers and Gilbert Melendez in Northern California, could Kron really be the Gracie Messiah in the UFC we’ve waited for the last two decades for? We should find out – sort of – as he faces Alex Caceres this weekend.

Caceres – AKA Bruce Leeroy – has somehow been in the UFC now for 8 years, putting together 19 fights in the Octagon over that time. 10-9 in the Octagon, he doesn’t have the greatest record, but when you actually see him fight, it makes total sense. Basically, he’s always had a lot of potential and at times he’s shown glimpses of brilliance – but he’s also thoroughly inconsistent.

That means that great showings like his one against Cole Miller could easily be followed by something awful – like his poor loss to Jason Knight, for instance. One fight it looks like he’s ready for an elite opponent, and the next he looks on the verge of being cut from the UFC.

That inconsistency is what makes this fight tough to pick. Caceres is clearly far more experienced than Kron – he’s got more than 6 times the fights of Gracie – but when you never know what you’re going to get from the guy, it’s really difficult to decide whether he can beat someone whose skill set seems basically straightforward.

The fact that Caceres has always been happy to grapple regardless of the opponent is the main reason why I’m picking Kron. Gracie should be probably the best grappler Caceres has ever faced, and ‘Bruce Leeroy’ already has 6 losses by submission on his ledger. I expect Kron to add his 7th this weekend.

The Pick: Gracie via first round submission

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