UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik - Predictions and Picks

#3 Stefan Struve vs. Ben Rothwell

Ben Rothwell hasn't won a fight since 2016

This one is a very curious fight, largely because Stefan Struve actually announced his retirement back in February after his win over Marcos Rogerio De Lima, and so it’s unexpected to see him return so quickly. At 31 he’s still very young, but he’s taken a lot of damage during his MMA career and has had numerous health issues too. Is it a mistake for him to be coming back? Quite possibly.

Rothwell hasn’t had the best time of things as of late either; he hasn’t won since his 2016 submission of Josh Barnett, as he spent the best part of three years on the shelf following a positive test for PEDs and a lengthy ban, returning in February to lose to Blagoy Ivanov and most recently Andrei Arlovski.

Basically then, this is a battle of two solid but limited Heavyweights; either Rothwell will find a way to get inside Struve’s ludicrous range – he has an 84.5” reach and stands at 7’0” – to land one of his powerful, clubbing punches, or Struve will manage to keep the plodding American at distance and pick him apart over three rounds.

Rothwell was never the fastest fighter on the roster, but prior to his 2019 return he was usually able to find a way to land a big shot, as he was being picked apart by both Brandon Vera and Alistair Overeem before getting inside to knock them out with clubbing blows. Junior Dos Santos beat him almost purely by using a jab though, which should give Struve some hope.

The problem though is that ‘Skyscraper’ has never had a great jab, despite his massive reach. What’s more, he’s always been susceptible to a big punch over the top – even the severely undersized De Lima dropped him in the early going – and doesn’t have a good chin by any means.

Therefore, it’s hard to see the Dutchman following in the steps of Ivanov – who basically squeaked past Rothwell despite taking some heavy shots – and Arlovski, who used his footwork and movement to pick the bigger man apart. Struve is probably better on the ground, but it’s hard to see him getting the fight there either, simply due to Rothwell’s size and the Dutchman’s lack of wrestling background.

Overall I don’t think Rothwell has too much to offer to the Heavyweight division these days, but this is definitely a winnable fight for him based purely on the styles of both men. Struve is too plodding to pick ‘Big Ben’ apart using his footwork, and his chin just can’t hold up to big shots any more.

The Pick: Rothwell via second round KO