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After a blank weekend, the UFC will return to our screens on May 30th with UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns. The show is tentatively scheduled to take place at the UFC's Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, but that's contingent on the Nevada State Athletic Commission, giving them the all-clear this week.
If that doesn't happen, the promotion reportedly have a fall-back plan to take the show into Arizona – so either way, it looks like it'll be going ahead. It's not as deep a card as the last few that we were given, but there are still a number of decent-sounding fights on tap here.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns.
#1 Welterweight: Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns
Before Covid-19 struck, former UFC Welterweight champ Tyron Woodley's return was meant to come in March. He was all set to main event the UFC's Fight Night in London against the UK's Leon Edwards – the owner of a lengthy win streak – with the winner probably being handed a title shot.
Of course, that went by-the-by, leaving 'The Chosen One' on the shelf for two more months. By the time he enters the Octagon next weekend, it'll be well over a year since we last saw him in action. That fight saw him dethroned by Kamaru Usman, and since then, he's had to rehab a number of injuries.
With this newly booked fight, the biggest loser is actually Edwards; 'Rocky' will probably have to wait until 'Fight Island' is up and running before he can compete again. And if Gilbert Burns manages to upset Woodley, then suddenly he might find himself in the queue behind the Brazilian in one of the UFC's most loaded divisions.
So can 'Durinho' upset the former champion? There are a number of things worth considering when it comes to picking a winner for this fight. Firstly, let's look at Burns.
The Florida-based Brazilian first debuted in the UFC back in 2014. As one of the world's most decorated grapplers, he came in with quite a reputation, and his first two fights went to plan. He comfortably outpointed Andreas Stahl, and then unsurprisingly outclassed fellow grappler Christos Giagos.
By 2015, though, question marks began to emerge. 'Durinho' submitted Alex Oliveira, but only after struggling tremendously with his striking. And in his follow-up fight, he was painfully outclassed on the feet by Rashid Magomedov. Since then, he's largely flown under the radar until his two most recent fights – a decision win over Gunnar Nelson and a TKO of Demian Maia.
There can be no question about Burns' grappling skill; his accomplishments in that sport speak for themselves and his wins over the likes of Mike Davis and Lukasz Sajewski in the UFC show that his talents have translated well into MMA. And while he's not the greatest wrestler, he does have a solid array of trips and takedowns that he uses to good effect largely from the clinch.
His striking meanwhile has always been powerful – witness his KO's of Dan Moret and Jason Saggo – but more recently, he's looked much more technical on the feet. His win over Nelson was made possible by a series of excellent leg kicks, and while his KO of Maia came from his usual clubbing power, Maia isn't exactly easy to stop – only Nate Marquardt had managed it previously.
Essentially then, Burns is a dangerous man in all areas. So how does he match up with Woodley? Well, there's very little chance of him being a better wrestler. 'The Chosen One' was a two-time NCAA Division I All-American at the University of Missouri, and really, only Usman – a freakish athlete – has been able to dominate him in that area.
Burns may have an advantage in pure grappling, but it's not like Woodley is a slouch there either; he's a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt in his own right and has never been submitted in his 11-year career. And everyone knows about his own striking power. Woodley hits remarkably hard even if he hasn't got all that many KO's to his name.
However, the former champion does have an Achilles heel. Throughout his career, he's shown a susceptibility to a lot of forward pressure. A dangerous counterpuncher, it's not wise to simply charge towards Woodley, but a smart fighter can use their footwork to force him into a pattern of circling along the fence, and from there it's a case of sniping at him from the outside while avoiding his big power shots – if they ever come.
Rory MacDonald used that gameplan to comfortably outpoint him in 2014, and Stephen Thompson came extremely close to doing the same on two occasions. Had Woodley not landed a bomb on him in both of those fights, 'Wonderboy' would likely have taken his title.
Usman took that gameplan to another level, of course, forcing Woodley back but also physically dominating him in the clinch and with takedowns too, but again, 'The Nigerian Nightmare' is a one-of-a-kind physical freak. The likelihood of Burns repeating his success is very unlikely.
The question for me then is whether Burns has enough striking technique these days to follow that gameplan. If he isn't capable of backing Woodley up with smart footwork, then it's likely he'll find himself taken down, and while he might be a better grappler, it's unlikely he'll submit Woodley from the bottom.
However, if he tries to force the pressure by just marching forward and looking to land a bomb of his own, there's every chance that Woodley could turn his lights out with one of those monstrous right hands he possesses.
This is undoubtedly a huge opportunity for Burns to step up into title contention, but I'm just not sure this is the best match for him right now. If he can get to the clinch, there's a chance he could surprise Woodley with a trip – and obviously, anyone with his power has a puncher's chance.
Overall though, I'm not convinced that he can carry out the correct gameplan to beat Woodley. Unless 'The Chosen One' has suddenly fallen victim to Father Time – and at 38 years old with a year on the shelf behind him, it's possible – I feel like Woodley's more than capable of uncorking a huge right hand to put the Brazilian out, most likely on the counter.
The Pick: Woodley via third-round KO
#2 Heavyweight: Blagoy Ivanov vs. Augusto Sakai
On the one hand, this co-main event makes perfect sense. The thin nature of the UFC's Heavyweight division means that a big win for either of these two would vault them into title contention, or in the very least, a fight with someone like Alistair Overeem that could lead to title contention. Augusto Sakai is 14-1-1 in his career and already has three wins in the UFC, while Blagoy Ivanov is 18-3 with two wins in the Octagon.
However, the nature and style of both men means that there's every chance we end up with a dull, plodding affair with both fighters looking exhausted before the final buzzer. If that's the case, then this will undoubtedly be a fight to forget. Hopefully, it won't end that way, but their previous fights don't bode too well.
Ivanov – the former Heavyweight champion in the WSOF, now PFL promotion – debuted in the UFC with little fanfare back in 2018. The world-renowned Sambo champion was outpointed in that fight by Junior Dos Santos but was able to edge decisions over Ben Rothwell and Tai Tuivasa before being edged himself back in November by Derrick Lewis.
The Bulgarian has a lot to like in terms of his game; he hits hard, has some solid striking fundamentals and can use a decent jab, and while he hasn't really shown it in the UFC yet, he's definitely a powerful grappler. However, the fact that he stands at just 5'11" means that he's a smaller Heavyweight even with his fireplug-like physique.
That's meant that he's struggled to get into range to land his strikes at times – particularly against Dos Santos – and that he hasn't really been able to put his opponents on the ground that often despite that strong grappling background.
Brazil's Sakai meanwhile is definitely a bigger Heavyweight. Standing at 6'3" and needing to cut weight to make the 265lbs limit, he's not jacked up like Francis Ngannou, for instance, but is just a huge guy – similar to former UFC favorite 'Bigfoot' Silva, in fact.
Like Bigfoot, he's surprisingly quick for a big man and carries huge power in his strikes. Of his 14 wins, 11 have come by KO or TKO – including his UFC victories over Chase Sherman and Marcin Tybura. Perhaps his most impressive win came against Andrei Arlovski, though.
In that fight, Sakai didn't KO the former UFC champ, but he was largely able to land the better strikes than him across 15 minutes, something that was beyond more proven fighters like Ben Rothwell and Stefan Struve. Arlovski's not a contender these days, but to outpoint him standing is still relatively impressive.
The issues for Sakai largely stand around his penchant for winging punches without too much in the way of defense. He hits extremely hard, but is clearly open to taking a hard counterpunch – not that anyone in the UFC has done that yet – and as we saw in his lone career loss to Cheick Kongo in Bellator, if he's put on the ground, he isn't really that great.
With that in mind, he's going to have to keep Ivanov at a distance to win this fight. If the Bulgarian can get inside his reach (Sakai has a 4" advantage), then there's no doubt that he can probably drag him down from the clinch and work him over from there, perhaps even latching onto a submission.
If he can keep Ivanov at the end of his punches though, he's more than capable of outpointing him to a decision – even if another KO looks unlikely due to the strength of the Bulgarian's chin.
Despite Sakai being on the better run, I'm going with Ivanov here. To really outpoint him, Sakai will need to keep him at the end of a ramrod jab – as Dos Santos largely did – and needs to avoid the clinch at all costs. I'm just not sure that he can do that, as the striking we've seen him use for the most part isn't measured or technical, it's more a lot of power strikes thrown with surprising speed.
Given that Ivanov isn't slow himself – especially early in the fight – I can definitely see a scenario where he can get inside Sakai's strikes and use the clinch to bully him around, and perhaps even get a takedown or two. Will he finish the Brazilian? I'm going to guess no, but I do think he's got enough to grind out a decision win.
The Pick: Ivanov via unanimous decision
#3 Welterweight: Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez
Although there have been a handful of fighters to do it in the modern era, it still takes a certain amount of guts to step into the Octagon twice in a month. Kevin Holland will join that list of fighters here, as he last saw action on May 16th, taking out Anthony Hernandez in a flurry of violence in just over 30 seconds.
Essentially, it makes sense for him to fight here; he probably needs money, the UFC need bodies for these shows, and he clearly took no damage in the Hernandez fight. So why not? If ‘Trailblazer’ can pick up a win here, while he won’t vault into title contention, it’ll do him a world of good in terms of his overall career with the UFC.
The odd part? Holland fought Hernandez at 185lbs and from all reports, this fight will take place at 170lbs. Is the idea of losing 15lbs in that period of time – after already completing a training camp – a little worrying? Almost certainly, yes.
To make matters stranger, while Daniel Rodriguez’s UFC debut came at 170lbs, he’s fought most of his career at 155lbs. That means that Holland will definitely be the bigger man – but whether it means that Rodriguez will have an advantage down the stretch is a definite question.
‘D-Rod’ is a well-rounded fighter, and his UFC debut saw him choke out a battle-hardened veteran in the form of Tim Means. Of his 11 wins, only one has come via decision; he’s got 6 KO’s and four submissions to his name.
However, Holland clearly has the advantage when it comes to experience. Both men debuted in MMA in 2015, but ‘Trailblazer’ has 6 UFC outings to his name, and even survived three rounds with the terrifying Thiago Santos.
For me, the question here is this: will Holland, after his weight cut and after fighting just two weeks ago, have enough to really push the pace and outwork Rodriguez over 15 minutes? I’m not convinced he can take out ‘D-Rod’ in a rush, and while I’d give him the advantage physically and in terms of experience, if he tires out then Rodriguez – who has a bunch of late finishes to his name – could take over.
It’s a tight one to call, but I’m going to go with the more proven fighter in Holland to squeeze out a decision – but I won’t be surprised if Rodriguez manages to take over in the later rounds and finds a way to finish.
The Pick: Holland via unanimous decision
#4 Lightweight: Roosevelt Roberts vs. Brok Weaver
This Lightweight clash definitely has the potential to be fun – but whether it’ll give us a highlight reel finish is another thing entirely. Realistically, the question of who comes out on top should come down to a simple thing – can Weaver deal with the lanky style of Roosevelt Roberts, both on the feet and inside the clinch?
Roberts – nicknamed ‘The Predator’ for his dreadlocks that he’s since shaved off – made his UFC debut in late 2018 and looked fantastic, using a nasty guillotine to submit Darrell Horcher in the first round. His win over Thomas Gifford was also impressive, as he basically beat Gifford up in every possible area.
At 6’1”, he’s a remarkably tall 155lber and uses his length to his advantage, particularly in the clinch. His long arms mean that he’s capable of latching onto chokes that other fighters might not be able to pull off, but he’s also become a solid striker too, capable of landing heavy shots on his opponents from the outside.
Thus far, he’s only got one loss to his name. That fight saw him outworked by veteran Vinc Pichel, who was able to get inside, take ‘The Predator’ down, and beat him up from top position while avoiding his submission attempts. So could Weaver repeat that feat?
Well, like Pichel, Brok Weaver is a workmanlike fighter who seems comfortable in grinding an opponent out down the stretch. Of his 15 career wins, eight have come by decision, and he’s only been finished twice. He’s a tough guy, capable of absorbing punishment and giving it back, too.
His UFC debut was one to forget – he beat Rodrigo Vargas by DQ after being hit by an illegal knee late in the first round, but before a close guillotine attempt, he was also being hurt by some nasty leg kicks.
Surprisingly enough, ‘Chata Tuska’ stands at 6’0” himself, meaning he doesn’t have so much of a reach disadvantage compare to some of Roberts’ other opponents. However, the likelihood is that Roberts’ use of his length will mean that Weaver will have issues in all areas.
The other problem he’s going to have is that while Roberts was taken down and beaten up by Pichel, the sole reason Pichel’s been able to stick around for as long as he has is that he’s renowned for his freakish physical strength. Weaver just isn’t likely to be able to muscle him around in the same way, and we already saw that Alexander Yakovlev struggled greatly due to the same issue.
Overall I’m not convinced of Weaver’s UFC credentials from what I’ve seen, and with that in mind, I think Roberts will likely have him beaten in all areas. Weaver’s toughness should keep him in the fight until the bitter end, but I think this will be one-sided in favour of ‘The Predator’.
The Pick: Roberts via unanimous decision
#5 Strawweight: Mackenzie Dern vs. Hannah Cifers
This Strawweight clip features a pair of fighters who, thus far at least, haven’t quite lived up to their athletic potential in the UFC just yet. Given her issues in making the 115lbs Strawweight limit, it’s a surprise to see Mackenzie Dern fighting at this weight again. This will be her first fight since last October, when she suffered the first loss of her career at the hands of the underrated Amanda Ribas.
Dern is undoubtedly a world-class grappler; her credentials in that sport are insane and it’s clear that the UFC would probably love for her to repeat her success in the Octagon, as she’s also highly attractive and has a massive following on Instagram for a fighter not exactly at the top of the division just yet.
But while she hasn’t quite proven to be more hype than substance like say, Paige VanZant, she’s definitely had issues. Her striking, while powerful at times, is still a work in progress, and she’s been outstruck by two of her three UFC opponents thus far. And while she’s an excellent grappler, her takedowns haven’t been that great, which is probably why she’s only managed one submission thus far.
Hannah Cifers is basically the polar opposite of Dern. ‘Shockwave’ was brought into the UFC as essentially a hand-picked opponent for another vaunted prospect in Maycee Barber, and was subsequently stopped in decisive fashion. A pair of decision wins over Jodie Esquibel, and Polyana Viana followed, but her last fight saw her firmly beaten by Angela Hill in a fight that was, to be fair, too much of a step up for her.
A striker by trade, Cifers will definitely hold an advantage over Dern on the feet, but the question is whether she’s got enough to stop Dern from taking her down, where she’ll be way out of her depth. Personally, I’m not convinced that she does.
Firstly, her UFC wins, in particular, came against fighters who were pretty firmly at a disadvantage when it came to athletic ability, something that shouldn’t be too much of an issue for Dern. And secondly, ‘Shockwave’ seemed more than happy to grapple with Barber in their fight, something that obviously proved to be a major error when ‘The Future’ finished her on the ground.
If Cifers fights in a smart way, looks to keep Dern at a distance and avoids grappling, then this is a winnable fight for her – but assuming Dern can make the weight, I think she’s athletic enough to close the distance, take ‘Shockwave’ down, and submit her.
The Pick: Dern via first-round submission
#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card
From most reports, the show’s preliminary fights will be shown on the ESPN+ streaming service. Headlining the portion of the card will be a Flyweight clash between former title challenger Katlyn Chookagian and the sister of the current champ, Antonina Shevchenko.
Chookagian looked firmly out of her depth with Valentina Shevchenko, but Antonina is not ‘The Bullet’ and doesn’t quite carry the same threat that her sister does. ‘Pantera’ is much more of a point-based striker, and while she’s solid on the ground, she’s also proven to be beatable there too.
I suspect this one will take place on the feet, and while Shevchenko has more credentials, I’m actually leaning towards Chookagian. She’s more experienced in the UFC, has beaten credentialed strikers before (Joanne Calderwood, Jennifer Maia) and should hold a slight reach advantage. Chookagian via decision is my pick.
In a Catchweight bout at 150lbs (I’m not sure of the reason for this), Billy Quarantillo takes on Spike Carlyle. A high-level grappler, Quarantillo returned to the UFC last year with an impressive triangle choke win over Jason Kilburn, erasing the memories of his poor showing on TUF 22. Carlyle meanwhile looked tremendous in his own UFC debut, taking out Aalon Cruz violently in the first round. Given Carlyle’s hard-hitting style, this should be a classic striker vs. grappler match.
I’m giving a slight edge to Quarantillo in this one; he’s more proven against higher-level opponents and has far more experience, and he’s also not a bad striker by any means. If he can weather an early storm, I like him to win by submission.
At Light-Heavyweight, Jamahal Hill faces Klidson Abreu. An experienced campaigner, Abreu hasn’t done so well in the UFC, going 1-2. That’s largely due to the fact that he lacks size at 205lbs despite being an extremely skilled grappler. He’ll hold a big experience advantage over Hill, who only started fighting in late 2017. However, ‘Sweet Dreams’ makes up for that lack of experience with plenty of athleticism.
This one’s a tricky fight to pick as Hill’s takedown defense didn’t look great in his fight with Darko Stosic, but I feel like his athletic ability can pull him through for a decision win.
At Flyweight, former title challenger Tim Elliott is back, facing newcomer Brandon Royval. On paper at least, you’d give the advantage to Elliott here; judging by his footage, ‘Raw Dawg’ shouldn’t have too much to bother such a skilled grappler. But Elliott is also getting old for a Flyweight now and hasn’t won since 2017. I’m going with the safe pick of Elliott via decision, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Royval overwhelms him early on with sheer aggression.
In a fun-sounding Bantamweight fight, Casey Kenney squares off with Louis Smolka. Kenney looks like a great prospect; he was able to outwork Ray Borg and Manny Bermudez in his early UFC days and didn’t look out of his depth in a loss to Merab Dvalishvili in February, while Smolka has had an up-and-down career as of late, largely only overcoming overmatched opponents. I like Kenney to grind out a decision win in this one.
Finally, Chris Gutierrez faces Vince Morales in a Featherweight tilt. Gutierrez is currently 2-1 in the UFC, although none of his fights were overly memorable, while Morales hasn’t been seen since a wild fight with Benito Lopez last summer. Given that both men usually fight at Bantamweight, the winner here could depend on who takes to their newer division better. I’ve been more impressed with Morales thus far into their UFC careers, so I’ll take him to edge a decision.
