UFC on Fox 31: Lee vs. Iaquinta 2 - Predictions and Picks

#2 Dan Hooker vs. Edson Barboza

Dan Hooker has been on a roll since moving to 155lbs

This looks like a fascinating fight between one man who appears to be climbing the ladder, and another who seems to be clinging onto the said ladder by his fingertips right now. A win for Hooker would rocket him up the ranks and make him an instant contender, while a win for Barboza would merely keep the Brazilian afloat.

New Zealand’s Hooker wasn’t supposed to get this far; he started his UFC career at 145lbs, going 3-3 and generally seeming like a reliable action fighter at best. A move to 155lbs in 2017 paid dividends though, and since then ‘The Hangman’ has gone 4-0, finishing all of his opponents for good measure. Sure, you could claim Ross Pearson and Jim Miller were past their best at the time he faced them, but you can’t sneeze at a knockout over someone the calibre of Gilbert Burns.

A rangy Lightweight at 6’0”, Hooker’s best asset is his Muay Thai game. He makes excellent use of long punches and kicks from the outside, and he’s also deadly with his elbows and in particular his knees – as both Pearson and Miller painfully found out. Hooker has shown issues with takedowns, but on the ground, he’s also proven himself dangerous, and he submitted Marc Diakiese in impressive fashion just under a year ago with a nasty guillotine choke.

Barboza is now in his 8th year with the UFC and we all know what he brings – a vicious Muay Thai assault centred around his brutal low kicks and a penchant for throwing flashy – but dangerous – spinning kicks. The Brazilian has a handful of the UFC’s best-ever highlight reel knockouts on his ledger, which stands at an impressive 13-6.

The issue surrounding ‘Junior’ throughout his UFC tenure has been his struggles to absorb damage well. Of his 6 losses, 4 of them all involved him being either knocked out or knocked down; he’s been hurt by fighters not notable as strikers such as Danny Castillo and Beneil Dariush, and his questionable chin cost him fights he was actually winning against Jamie Varner and Donald Cerrone.

This issue has been highlighted even more since a really bad loss last December to Khabib Nurmagomedov. The current UFC Lightweight champ absolutely dismantled Barboza over 3 rounds, taking him down and pulverising him to the point where he looked completely broken. He took a few months off following this, but his next fight – a loss to Kevin Lee – followed the same pattern. Could it be that Nurmagomedov simply took his fighting soul?

My bet is yes. 8 years at the top of the UFC fighting tough opponent after tough opponent has to take its toll, and at 32 Barboza is no spring chicken either. All that damage has to catch up to a fighter at some point and I just don’t trust that he can take punishment well any more.

Admittedly, Hooker doesn’t have the wrestling-based offense that gave Barboza so much difficulty against Khabib and Lee, and he isn’t anywhere near as dynamic on offense as Barboza himself. But he is a proven and violent finisher, and I find it hard to see Barboza fighting a perfect fight that doesn’t involve him getting hurt at least once. And when he does, I just don’t think he’ll be allowed to recover.

The Pick: Hooker via second round KO