UFC: Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale - Predictions and Picks

#7 The Prelims: Fox Sports 1 card

Rick Glenn will bring his aggressive style against Kevin Aguilar

Exciting Featherweight Rick Glenn headlines the FS1 portion of the prelim card, and he’s faced with a late replacement in the form of Kevin Aguilar, who stepped in about two weeks ago to replace Arnold Allen. Aguilar has an impressive record at 15-1 and after winning on Dana White’s Contender Series, was probably knocking on the door of the UFC regardless. This could be a tough fight for him, though – Glenn is a step up in competition and has shown aggression in all areas as well as a strong takedown game. I favour Glenn’s pressure game here; I’m just not sure how Aguilar will deal with someone who will not stop coming forward. Glenn via decision is the pick.

At Flyweight, longtime veteran and former title challenger Joseph Benavidez was pegged to face off with Ray Borg here, but instead he’ll take on Alex Perez, who has already reeled off 3 wins in the Octagon since debuting via the Contender Series in 2017. In his prime this likely would’ve been a comfortable win for Benavidez, but he’s been looking slower and slower with every fight recently, and after a serious knee surgery he was beaten in a non-title fight for the first time by Sergio Pettis earlier this year. This fight screams upset to me; Perez showed stunning punching power in his knockout win over Jose Torres, appears to be a solid wrestler, and Benavidez looks more vulnerable than ever right now. Call me crazy but I’m taking Perez via knockout.

In a battle of beaten TUF semi-finalists, Heavyweights Maurice Greene and Michel Batista throw down. Greene should have the advantage on the feet here, as he’s 6’7” and showed a strong kickboxing game on the reality show, but the question is whether he can keep the fight standing, given Batista was a 2008 Olympian in freestyle wrestling representing Cuba. Batista isn’t a physical specimen like his countryman Yoel Romero and his loss on TUF to Justin Frazier doesn’t bode well for his future in my opinion, but I think he’s got enough to take out the inexperienced Greene here, and win a decision.

The Women’s Featherweight losing semi-finalists also face off as Leah Letson takes on Julija Stoliarenko. This should come down to whether Letson’s aggressive brawling style can take out Stoliarenko before the Lithuanian can get the fight to the ground, as on the mat she’s a highly dangerous grappler who used an armbar to submit Marciea Allen on the reality show. Letson has more top-flight experience though, and so I think she can keep the fight standing and beat Stoliarenko up for a decision.