HMS ace Kyle Larson steadies the ship, but is his momentum enough for a title push?

Kyle Larson has quietly put himself back in the NASCAR Cup Series championship contention with a runner-up finish at the Charlotte Roval. The Hendrick Motorsports driver clinched a Round of 8 berth after a long stretch of inconsistent form.

Since his failed Double Duty attempt, Larson had a slump of six finishes outside the top 20 and just three top fives in 18 starts, until this weekend. His only win this season remains the Kansas victory back in early May. The last time he had another stretch this lean was back in 2019, when he was at Chip Ganassi Racing.

However, Larson still leads the Cup Series in laps led (971), a sign of his dominance in the spring, when he won three of the first 12 races. The problem was conversion. But since the start of the Round of 12, that rhythm seems to have returned. After no top-10s in the Round of 16, Larson now has three straight - P7 at New Hampshire, P6 at Kansas, and P2 at Charlotte.

For the first time since early summer, Kyle Larson looks composed under pressure, a trait Cliff Daniels’ No. 5 crew had built its championship DNA on.

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Is Kyle Larson silently posing a title threat?

Kyle Larson (R) and Hendrick Motorsports Crew chief Cliff Daniels at WWT Raceway. Source: Getty

Kyle Larson looked comfortable at Charlotte Roval 400, winning nine points in Stage 1 to lock himself into the Round of 8. He was the only driver who consistently challenged Shane van Gisbergen on raw pace.

On Lap 63, Larson took the lead with Christopher Bell following him into second. A cycle of green-flag stops briefly shuffled the order, but SVG’s precision soon showed as he dived to Larson’s inside at Turn 7 and reclaimed the lead on Lap 96. The two swapped positions again later, trading contact through the backstretch chicane before van Gisbergen pulled away with 11 laps to go.

Still, for a driver who had four finishes in the 30s on road courses this year, Larson’s control and composure stood out. Former Hendrick Motorsports crew chief and NBC analyst Steve Letarte believes something has changed behind the scenes.

"I’ll be the guy that jumps on the grade here. Something changed (with) the team. I don’t know the details... but Cliff Daniels kind of made a statement last week about how the team’s been through more than the world knows.... The 5 had a slump. Now, I know he didn’t win, he didn’t come back and win, but he (looks like Kyle Larson again) yeah.. Like if Larson wins at Vegas, and that was four weeks ago, I'd be like, 'Hell, where'd he come from.' Now I'd be like, 'Yep we saw this one coming," Letarte said on NBC’s Inside the Race podcast (33:31 onwards).

He enters the Round of 8, seeded third behind Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney, tied on points with William Byron.

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Kyle Larson's path to the 2025 Championship 4

(L-R) 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship 4 drivers: William Byron, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, and Kyle Larson. Source: Getty

The upcoming tracks might play perfectly into Kyle Larson’s hands. The Round of 8 opens at Las Vegas Motor Speedway - one of his best tracks statistically. In 18 starts there, he’s scored three wins and 13 top-10s, the best active average in the field (9.4). He’s also led over 650 laps at the 1.5-mile oval, and with HMS' intermediate setup improving through the playoffs, the timing feels ideal.

Talladega remains the wildcard. Larson has not won there in 21 starts and has just one runner-up finish, which came last year. Martinsville, though, brings it back in his favor. Over his last six starts at the short track, he’s finished inside the top 10, with a win. His 5.4 average finish trails only Ryan Blaney’s 4.6 in the Next-Gen car.

Speaking earlier this week on the Stacking Pennies podcast, Larson expressed quiet confidence about the stretch ahead:

"I actually really like the Round of Eight. Vegas, I think, is going to be a great track for us. Talladega — hopefully, if it goes like the other speedways have this year, I think we can score good points. And then Martinsville is, oddly, our best track statistically." (53:37 pmwards)

But the competition will be steep. Team Penske’s Fords have won three of the four remaining tracks in 2024 and have owned the flat ovals this season. Toyota’s strength through the summer, especially on intermediates like Kansas, means Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell can’t be counted out either. Also, while Hendrick’s progress on flat tracks has been clear, it’s not yet at Penske’s level.

Phoenix, the championship finale, also leans toward Penske and Blaney, whose underlying pace and pit execution remain the benchmark. For the 2021 champion, the path to the title will require perfection, not just flashes of speed.