3 bold predictions ahead of first NASCAR playoff elimination race at Bristol

With the Bristol night race serving as the NASCAR Round of 16 finale, fans can expect a showdown filled with drama under the lights. The playoff standings are tight, and even the smallest mistake around the 0.533-mile Tennessee oval could make or break a championship run.

After 500 laps of racing, four drivers will see their playoff hopes end, with Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman, and Josh Berry currently below the cutline. Only Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin have locked into the Round of 12, each with a win this round.

With the green flag set to wave Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET, here are three bold predictions ahead of the first elimination race.

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1. AJ Allmendinger converts the pole

AJ Allmendinger scored his first pole position in 10 years after lapping around Bristol in 15.117 seconds, 0.003 seconds faster than runner-up Ryan Blaney. With Bristol’s heavy tire wear, starting up front could be a major advantage for the #16 Kaulig Racing driver, provided he defends the position well and nails his pit stops.

AJ Allmendinger drives the #16 Chevrolet Camaro for Kaulig Racing - Source: Imagn

Allmendinger, 43, has scored three NASCAR Cup Series wins, all coming on road courses — Watkins Glen in 2014, the Indy Road Course in 2021, and the Charlotte Roval in 2023. A win this weekend would mark his first short-track triumph at an iconic venue.

He will lead the field to green ahead of Ryan Blaney, Austin Cindric, Ty Gibbs, and Kyle Larson, last year's Bristol night race winner. Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Bubba Wallace, Christopher Bell, and Josh Berry round out the top 10.

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2. Alex Bowman makes the cut

Alex Bowman may be in troubled waters, but Hendrick Motorsports has historically thrived in the NASCAR playoffs. For the upcoming race, the organization has swapped pit crews of the #48 team in hopes of extending the 32-year-old’s postseason run.

Alex Bowman during the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Media Day - Source: Imagn

This stands out as a bold prediction, since Bowman sits 35 points below the cutline in 15th. To survive, he’ll either need to win or pile up stage points while hoping his rivals stumble. He’ll roll off the grid in 15th, just ahead of Hendrick teammate Chase Elliott.

The #48 pit box will now feature front tire changer Daniel Bach, rear tire changer Rod Cox, tire carrier Jarius Morehead, and jackman Cody French — all reassigned from Carson Hocevar’s #77 Spire Motorsports team. Fueler Jacob Conley is the lone member staying put with Bowman.

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3. Joey Logano exits the NASCAR playoffs

Defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Joey Logano hasn’t had the strongest season, with just one win to his name — a sharp contrast to contenders like Denny Hamlin with five and Kyle Larson with three. Starting 22nd at Bristol puts him in a tough spot, as track position and tire management are critical, leaving him vulnerable to an early playoff exit.

Joey Logano is the reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion - Source: Imagn

With a 21-point cushion in 10th, Joey Logano enters Bristol in a relatively comfortable spot. As long as he avoids major trouble, he should advance, though a rare worst-case scenario—like a DNF combined with a Bowman or Berry upset win—could still shake things up. While unlikely, such a twist would send shockwaves through the NASCAR nation.