Chase Elliott's Vegas record raises alarms as Hendrick Motorsports' momentum shifts to Kyle Larson

The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs now head to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Round of 8 opener, and Chase Elliott is under caution. The No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports driver enters the weekend, 14 points below the cutline, with a poor record at the 1.5-mile track.

All three HMS drivers in the playoffs delivered a strong Round of 12 performance. Except for William Byron's 11th-place finish at the Roval, all others were inside the top 10. Elliott won at Kansas, and Larson’s runner-up finish at Charlotte rounded off a strong showing. Now, Las Vegas looms as both opportunity and threat.

Kyle Larson (5), Chase Elliott (9), and William Byron (24) at Daytona. Source: Imagn

Kyle Larson has nine top-10s in his last 11 Las Vegas starts, including three wins and two runner-ups. The 2021 Cup champion has the best average finish of 9.4 at the 1.5-mile oval. He ranks No. 1 in speed and No. 2 in long-run speed on intermediate tracks in recent Racing Insights metrics. He’s piled up postseason stage points (73, most among playoff drivers) and has shown the ability to lead long runs and manage tires at tracks like Las Vegas.

William Byron isn’t far behind. The No. 24 driver has five top-10s at Las Vegas (including a win) and the best average finish among the remaining playoff drivers in the Next-Gen era. He has led just five laps in the past nine races, so a Las Vegas surge would come at the perfect time.

Chase Elliott’s situation, however, is much less stable. His position below the cutline means every point matters, and Las Vegas could become the defining race of his playoff run. In his last two Las Vegas playoff races, he has finished outside the top 30 (2023 and 2024). He holds an average finish of 19 in his 16 career starts, despite a solid 12.2 average starting position.

The next three weekends (Las Vegas, followed by Talladega and Martinsville) will decide the Championship 4. And with Larson in form, it might shift HMS’s title push around No. 5 rather than No. 9.

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Chase Elliott "excited to get to Vegas" after a solid Roval run

Chase Elliott before the NASCAR Cup Series Bank of America ROVAL 400. Source: Getty

Chase Elliott had a solid day in the Bank of America ROVAL 400. He scored 40 points, collecting stage points even though his Round of 8 ticket was sealed a week earlier at Kansas. He ran top 10 in both stages and finished in P8.

Speaking after the race, Elliott told NBC:

"I thought our pace was actually respectable. To restart, in the mid-20s there behind 20th place on a couple of occasions and get back inside the top 10, I feel like we were decent. Just needed to have something kind of go our way, with the way we were running it, but overall I thought it was a solid day for us and certainly gave it our best effort. Excited to get to Vegas."

Chase Elliott treated the Roval like a points opportunity. Instead of pitting ahead of the stages to go for the win, he focused on collecting points. That mindset is exactly what he needs to replicate at Las Vegas, where he can earn buffer points to offset the risk at Talladega.

Las Vegas will demand clean restarts, aero-management, and long-run handling. Those are areas where Kyle Larson has demonstrably held an edge the last two seasons. Elliott must find an equivalent long-run setup and tire life for Sunday to avoid the same fate as recent Vegas playoff outings.

One thing in his favor will be the tires. Goodyear plans to run the same right and left side compounds used two weeks earlier in the Kansas playoff race, which Chase Elliott won. With a superspeedway wild card in Talladega next, a poor result in the South Point 400 can immediately turn a championship bid precarious.