Denny Hamlin discloses which playoff rule makes him ‘nervous’ as he predicts Hendrick and Penske stars “most likely” to win at Martinsville

NASCAR Cup Series South Point 400 - Source: Getty
Denny Hamlin, driver of the #11 ampm Toyota, looks on backstage during pre-race ceremonies prior to the NASCAR Cup Series South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on October 12, 2025 - Source: Getty

Denny Hamlin recently shared which playoff rule makes him nervous heading into Martinsville. In a video by Dirty Mo Media on X, Hamlin talked about the “win and you’re in” rule that defines the Cup Series playoffs and how it could shake up the final standings before Phoenix.

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Martinsville is the final race of the Round of 8, where one win can change everything. Under the NASCAR playoff format, any playoff driver who wins at Martinsville automatically gets a berth in the Championship 4, even if their overall points are lower. In the video, Denny Hamlin explains that while he welcomes any competition, the “win and you’re in” system makes him nervous.

“I say come one, come all, I’m gonna have to beat them all to win the championship anyway,” Hamlin said. “It doesn’t really matter to me who you put in that final race. That’s the thing with win and you’re in, it’s just, really nervous when you get someone from the bottom that wins.”
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Later, Denny Hamlin also made a guess on his fellow racers from Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsports. Adding,

"Now, Larson’s in a, I don’t know, I think he’s in a vulnerable spot. Like Chase or Blaney, are the most likely of the bottom four, to go out there and win and get themselves in."
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When each playoff round begins, the points reset. Drivers have some bonus playoff points from earlier rounds, but those can be overtaken by a single win. That’s what makes Martinsville so critical; no matter how consistent a driver has been, they could still lose their championship chance if a lower-seeded driver wins.

The current playoff standings show how tight the battle is. Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin have already secured their spots in the Championship 4 with wins. Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson currently sit above the cutoff line, but only by a narrow margin.

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Below them, William Byron, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott are on the outside looking in, desperate for a win at Martinsville to keep their seasons alive.


“The downside is one of my competitors will know what I have,” says Denny Hamlin on teammate advantage

After Chase Briscoe’s win at Talladega secured his Championship 4 spot, Denny Hamlin discussed what it means for Joe Gibbs Racing to have two cars in contention. While happy for Briscoe, Hamlin admitted it creates unique challenges within the same team. On his Actions Detrimental podcast, via Dirty Mo Media, Hamlin explained,

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“The downside is one of my competitors will know what I have. More than likely at some point we will run each other's setups to see ‘what does he like?’, ‘what’s he gonna go into this weekend with?’ We all feel as though we’re the best, I’m not gonna get beat by equipment. Puts more pressure on me to go out and get it done.”
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Having two strong drivers from Joe Gibbs Racing, himself and Briscoe, means shared information could help both, but it also means less secrecy in strategy heading into Phoenix. Hamlin has been with JGR for years but is still in search of his first Cup championship, while Briscoe is in his debut season with the team.

Denny Hamlin already secured his place in the final four by winning at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on October 12, with the 60th win of his career and tying Kevin Harvick for 10th all-time. Briscoe’s Talladega win made him the second JGR driver locked into the finale. With two spots remaining and one race left at Martinsville, the pressure is mounting for the rest of the field.

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Edited by Tushhita Barua
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