Why New Hampshire could expose Hendrick Motorsports' playoff struggles despite Kyle Larson's best-case stats

The first round of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs has belonged to Toyota, while for Hendrick Motorsports, the picture has been far less convincing. Joe Gibbs Racing swept the Round of 16, with Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell each securing wins. On the other hand, the team that dominated the regular season is now on shaky ground going into New Hampshire for the Round of 12.

On paper, Hendrick carries nine all-time Cup wins at New Hampshire in 198 starts. In reality, the Next Gen car has leveled the field and exposed their weaknesses. Across three New Hampshire races since 2022, Hendrick’s average finish sits at 16.6 with just three top-fives and no victories. The last time the team won here was back in 2012 with Kasey Kahne, which underlines how long this track has been a blind spot.

Kyle Larson has been the exception. Of the remaining 12 playoff drivers, he owns the best Next Gen average at New Hampshire (7.0) with six career top-fives, including three runner-up finishes. His pace this season is undeniable. He has led 939 laps, more than anyone in the field, despite a disappointing second half of the season. But in the last seven races, he has just two top ten finishes.

William Byron (L) and Chase Elliott during the NASCAR Cup Series race at WWT Raceway. Source: Getty

Losing form at the business end of the season can be costly for the No. 5 team. For William Byron and Chase Elliott, the numbers are poorer. Byron has never finished in the top 10 at Loudon in seven starts, with his best result being 11th. Elliott has only three top-10s in 11 races. With Joe Gibbs Racing already in control and Toyota on a hot streak, Hendrick Motorsports risks being outmuscled if results don’t turn fast.

---

Why is Hendrick Motorsports in a precarious position in the 2025 playoffs?

Hendrick Motorsports' Kyle Larson (5), Chase Elliott (9), and William Byron (24) at Daytona International Speedway. Source: Imagn

William Byron enters the Round of 12 as the second seed (+24), Kyle Larson sits third (+24), but Chase Elliott's margin offers little security if another rough weekend unfolds. He sits just +5 above the elimination line. New Hampshire has rarely been the stage for Hendrick Motorsports' breakthroughs, and 2025 offers little reason to expect a change. Unless Larson can finally convert consistency into victory, the track is far more likely to deepen the organization’s struggles than cure them.

Their struggles began at Darlington, where no HMS driver finished higher than 17th. Gateway brought some relief with one top-5, but the team’s fortunes collapsed again under the Bristol lights. Alex Bowman was the lone HMS car inside the top 10, but it wasn’t enough to keep his playoff hopes alive. He joined Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, and Josh Berry as the first eliminations of 2025.

Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Chase Elliott all scraped through. Larson finished 32nd, Elliott DNFed with 38th, and Byron salvaged a 12th at Bristol. For a team that entered the postseason with Byron as the regular-season champion and Larson second in points, it was a sharp drop from expectation. Now, with New Hampshire kicking off the next round, Hendrick Motorsports faces a track that has been historically unkind in the Next Gen era.