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The Baltimore Ravens agreed to terms on a two-year deal worth up to $20 million with All-Pro running back Derrick Henry. The 2020 NFL Offensive Player of the Year will get $9 million in guaranteed money for the 2024 season.
While getting a four-time Pro Bowl running back will excite Ravens fans, it’s not a good sign for Keaton Mitchell’s fantasy football impact. Looking at the numbers, it would be hard for Baltimore to bench a player who amassed 1,167 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.
Though Henry’s yards per carry dropped from 4.4 in 2022 to 4.2 last season, he went over 1,000 yards in 69 fewer attempts. That’s part of the reason Pro Football Focus still gave him a 90.2 overall grade and an 86.8 rushing mark for 2023. More importantly, he never fumbled throughout the season.
Though Derrick Henry is already 30, an age when running backs often experience a decline in production, he remained a productive contributor fantasy football-wise. He provided the eighth-most points last season (246.66) and was second in rushing yards behind Christian McCaffrey.
With the Ravens letting Gus Edwards join the Los Angeles Chargers, Henry will heavily figure in Baltimore’s vaunted ground attack. On paper, it looks like a mismatch with the two-time All-Pro at running back and two-time Most Valuable Player Lamar Jackson’s scrambling prowess.
However, Derrick Henry’s arrival will drastically affect Mitchell’s snap count. He put the league on notice after tallying 138 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 9 against the Seattle Seahawks. However, he did not reach the century mark again. Worst yet, his season ended in Week 15 after an ACL tear.
Keaton Mitchell must exercise patience as Derrick Henry takes over
Barring any injury, Henry will be the Ravens’ lead running back. He still has enough power and speed to become a productive part of their game plan. However, Baltimore will monitor his decline over the next two seasons.
Derrick Henry can be a part of the outliers and remain a dominating running back in his 30s. But he has an injury history, and the hits he receives as a bigger back can take its toll at some point.
It’s not that Keaton Mitchell won’t get his opportunities. Instead, he will be Baltimore’s option when they want to change the pace or during obvious passing situations. However, his availability remains a primary concern, considering the typical recovery period for ACL injuries.
The Ravens are lucky if they can extend Henry after his current contract. Otherwise, Keaton Mitchell will be the next man up, and his fantasy football stock should rise.
