Could the AFC Wild Card Race get any closer?

They look the front runnerAs the NFL enters their final four-game stretch of the season, there is one game separating five teams in the AFC Wild Card race. As it currently stands, the Kansas City Chiefs and the New York Jets are barely in, while the Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans, and Buffalo Bills are right on their heels.It is going to come down to which team executes, makes the big plays, and even who they play to close out the season. Let’s jump in and see who will make it when the dust settles.

#1 Kansas City Chiefs

Will the Chiefs’ luck run out at the worst moment?

Schedule

vs Chargers

@ Ravens

vs Browns

vs Raiders

Why they’ll make it

They are playing as well as any team in the league right now, winning six straight games, including five by double digits. They are finding a great mix of a running back by committee run game and Alex Smith finally pushing the ball downfield, allowing the Chiefs to make big plays.

The defense is the third-ranked over this streak and they are playing at the type of level that can carry a team even when the offense slips. Also, their schedule doesn’t have one team with a winning record on it.

Why they won’t make it

The running game can’t sustain itself and they fall into a rash of bad luck. Phillip Rivers is capable of sending them to a loss on Sunday just by having a throwback game.

#2 New York Jets

Schedule

vs Titans

@ Cowboys

vs Patriots

@ Bills

Why they’ll make it

They will be favored in their next two games and then get to host a Patriots team that still might be missing Gronk and Julian Edelman. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to play better than expected, and Chris Ivory regains his early season form and gives the offense two solid dimensions. The defense continues to get after the opponent and shuts down the Patriots limited options in three weeks.

Why they won’t make it

The Cowboys, with something to play for after last week’s win vs Washington, spring an upset on the Jets, who then lose to the Patriots the next week. Fitzpatrick struggles and throws interceptions that have characterized his career, limiting Brandon Marshall’s ability to carry the pass offense. The number one ranked rush defense has a few big breakdowns that set back a Jets defense that can’t afford any holes.

#3 Pittsburgh Steelers

Schedule

@ Bengals

vs Broncos

@ Ravens

@ Browns

Why they’ll make it

Their offense is deadly, plain and simple. They have playmakers galore who are all playing extremely well, and a quarterback capable of making sweet music with them. Despite losing Le’Veon Bell for the season, they have barely skipped a beat as DeAngelo Williams has been a revelation.

The defense has been playing better of late and is the final piece the Steelers need to be a true Super Bowl contender. They are hot right now and will continue with a big December.

Why they won’t make it

In the next two weeks they play the top two teams in the AFC standings. That is a tall order, not to mention they have three of four on the road in this stretch. The schedule gods were not kind to the Steelers and a 2-2 record in this stretch will most likey doom them. The defense isn’t able to keep up their good play and a crucial Ben Roethlisberger turnover sends them into the offseason instead of the postseason.

#4 Buffalo Bills

Schedule

@ Eagles

@ Washington

vs Cowboys

vs Jets

Why they’ll make it

The offense is humming along thanks to a top five run game and will continue to be the catalyst as they push to the playoffs. The schedule is kind to them as they get to play the lowly NFC East for three games before a potential playoff deciding division showdown vs the Jets in the last week.

They can definitely win the three NFC East games, and with the way quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been playing, steady, sometimes spectacular and turnover free, they have the recipe to get hot and enter the playoffs.

Why they won’t make it

The defense that Rex Ryan was supposed to take to even greater heights when he was hired as head coach has not performed well and it will continue to be the demise of the Bills. They don’t do one thing particularly well and they will not be able to stop the mediocre attacks they face to close the season. Too much will be on Taylor’s shoulders and the Bills will fall short of the playoffs once again.

#5 Houston Texans

Schedule

vs Patriots

@ Colts

@ Titans

vs Jaguars

Why they’ll make it

They get to play division opponents, AFC South, and that is some of the best schedule news you can hear. If their defense can continue playing like a top 10 unit, they have a chance to slow down the Patriots on Sunday and then constrict their division brethren. DeAndre Hopkins goes off the last four weeks and carries a below average offense over the finish line.

Why they won’t make it

They aren’t particularly good, especially on offense where play behind center and injuries at running back really hold them back. They have been all over the map this season, only coming on once their defense started to get fully healthy at mid-season. But the defense isn’t quite good enough to get them out of the hole that was dug early on, and the offense continues to sputter outside of Hopkins’ stellar production

#6 And the winner is....

Who makes it

When the dust settles at the end of the season, I see the Kansas City Chiefs winning out and getting the five seed at 11-5, while the Pittsburgh Steelers go 3-1 with a big home win vs the Denver Broncos and squeak in just ahead (10-6) of the New York Jets who lose their last two games and finish 9-7.

I feel like the Texans will get knocked out this week with a loss to the Patriots. The Bills will suffer what becomes a heartbreaking loss as they win their last three games and are left to wonder, what if. Even if none of these predictions come true, this is sure to be a race to watch, as two of the hottest teams could emerge, the Chiefs and Steelers, capable of putting big scares in the four division winners.