UFC 189: Preview and predictions

An exciting card awaits at the UFC 189 eventThe wait is almost over. The most talked about event of the year UFC 189 goes down this Sunday in Las Vegas, the fight capital of the world. While the main event may have changed, this is still the biggest card of the year and arguably the strongest UFC card since UFC 100.The culmination of international fight week, the biggest week for the UFC, Sunday’s card is headlined by the bout for the interim featherweight championship between Chad Mendes and Conor McGregor. The co-main event is a barn burner in the making for the UFC Welterweight championship between the champion ‘Ruthless’ Robbie Lawler and the challenger Rory Macdonald.The main card features 3 other exciting fights. In the flyweight division, Dennis Bermudez will take on Jeremy Stephens. In the welterweight division, Brandon Thatch will take on Icelandic fighter Gunnar Nelson. Finally in the bantamweight division, Brad Pickett will take undefeated rising star Thomas Almeida.

#1 Brad Pickett [25-10-0] vs Thomas Almeida [18-0-0]

Of his 18 career wins, Thomas Almeida has won 15 via first round stoppages. The 23-year-old Brazilian is just 3 months removed from his win over Yves Jabouin at UFC 186, a fight that earned him a performance of the night bonus. British fighter Brad Pickett, on the other hand, hasn’t been in the octagon since November when he lost a close decision call to Chico Camus.

The biggest challenge for Pickett will be trying to stop the beautiful Muay Thai attacks of the Brazilian Almeida. He will have to force the fight to the mat and utilize his wrestling ability to stifle Almeida’s stand up. Nicknamed ‘One Punch,’ Pickett is an excellent boxer but his ground game is often under-estimated. Training out of American Top Team has only helped his grappling. Almeida lands a remarkable 7.82 strikes per minute.

For Pickett to try fighting him standing up would be playing with fire. Almeida is younger, faster and has some of the best Muay Thai in the lighter weight classes of the UFC. For his part, Almeida will be trying to keep his opponent at a distance and let his hands and feet loose.

Prediction – Thomas Almeida via TKO, Round 2

#2 Gunnar Nelson [13-1-1] vs Brandon Thatch [11-2-0]

Icelandic sensation Gunnar Nelson will be looking to bounce back from his loss to Rick Story in October. Brandon Thatch will also be looking to make amends for a submission loss to former Lightweight champion Benson Henderson in February.

An ambidextrous striker, Nelson likes to take the fight on the mat. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under the legendary Renzo Gracie, Nelson is a submission machine. Of his 13 career wins, 9 have come via submission. He has a unique ability to completely shut people down and stifle them on the ground.

Thatch, on the other hand, is a world class kickboxer. He will go into the fight wanting to keep it as a stand-up slugfest. If he does get taken down, it will only be a matter of time before Nelson sinks in a submission. An aggressive fighter with an impressive range of attacks, Thatch will look to maintain his distance and use his technical striking to stop Nelson landing a takedown.

If Nelson starts slowly in this match-up, he’s going to be overwhelmed by Thatch’s devastating striking arsenal. However Thatch’s aggressiveness is both his biggest strength and biggest weakness and the longer this fight goes, the more it favours the submission expert Nelson.

Prediction – Brandon Thatch via TKO, Round 1

#3 Dennis Bermudez [14-4-0] vs Jeremy Stephens [23-11-0]

Much like Nelson and Thatch, both of these featherweights will be looking to bounce back from losses. Stephens has a 5-inch reach advantage over Bermudez and will be looking to exploit that the best he can. Bermudez, on the other hand, will be looking to set the pace and dictate the flow of the fight.

Given that he is the smaller man, Bermudez will look to press with his high-energy wrestling and wear Stephens down. It’s no secret that Bermudez has the better cardio, but Stephens is a veteran and has seen all of this before. He has the 7th most fights in UFC history and 15 knockout wins. Bermudez will be buzzing around constantly moving trying to impose his will on the fight.

Stephens will look to get a hold of him, push him against the cage and land some clean body strikes and elbows. Slowing the pace and frustrating Bermudez will be the best strategy for Stephens.

Prediction – Dennis Bermudez via Submission, Round 4

#4 Robbie Lawler [25-10-1] vs Rory Macdonald [18-2-0]

At UFC 167, these two put on a barn burner of a fight which Lawler won by a close decision. While the judges’ cards may have been close, Macdonald never established his jab in the fight and Lawler took advantage inflicting a lot of punishment on the Canadian phenom as a result. Lawler will enter his first title defence off the back of a impressive 2014 that saw him lose a title fight in his first showing of the year and win a title fight in his last showing.

In his first defence since beating Johny Hendricks in December, Lawler faces arguably his toughest challenge. It’s hard to pluck holes in Macdonald’s game. He is just as comfortable on the ground as he is on his feet and seems to have matured after his defeat to Lawler. It’s hard to believe that Macdonald is only 25; he has been in the UFC since he was 20 and some feel was due a title shot even earlier than he’s getting it.

Lawler has an impressive 19 knockout wins. His strategy will be to stand and slug with the challenger and bet that his chin is stronger than Macdonald’s. With only 1 submission win in his career and 5 submission defeats, Lawler won’t want to grapple with a world class Jiu Jitsu practitioner like Macdonald. His display at UFC 167 was arguably the most impressive of his career and his game plan will be somewhat similar- impose his will and use his big fight experience to stifle his young challenger.

Not allowing Macdonald to get his jabs in by constantly changing angles and forcing him to adjust worked perfectly for Lawler last time and there is no reason to think that it won’t this time. But Macdonald will look to finally step out of Georges St Pierre shadow and become champion.

He will look to grind out the fight on the cage and grapple early on to wear down the older champion and go for the kill in the later rounds. This fight will probably be the fight of the night and while not promoted as much as the main event, has the potential to be one of the best fights this year, with neither fighter afraid to stand and trade.

Prediction – Rory Macdonald via split decision.

#5 Chad Mendes [17-2-0] vs Conor McGregor [17-2-0]

Ok, it’s not Jose Aldo. The world tour, the great ads, the great quotes, all went up in smoke when the undisputed featherweight champion and pound for pound king injured his ribs and was forced to pull out of the biggest fight of his life. His replacement, the number 1 ranked featherweight in the world, Chad ‘Money’ Mendes, who has his own personal score to settle with Irish superstar Conor McGregor.

There has been plenty of talk and plenty of drama surrounding the fight. Let’s forget about that and focus on the fight itself. While their records may be identical, Mendes’ credentials are more impressive. The only man to have ever beaten him is Jose Aldo. Mendes has smoked pretty much everyone else he has taken on. His last outing was a sensational performance against highly rated Ricard Lamas.

McGregor’s unorthodox style and wide stance expose his front leg to leg kicks that will take their toll as the fight goes on. Mendes will look to grapple and wrestle with McGregor, get close to him and force McGregor to abandon his kicks and punches for take down defence. McGregor, on the other hand, will be looking to keep his distance, to stay on the outside and land those trade mark kicks.

For someone fighting at 145lbs, McGregor is a big man. 3 inches taller than Mendes, McGregor has knockout power unlike any featherweight in the UFC. The Irishman won’t want to get caught in close quarters with Mendes. He will have to constantly move around and stay at a safe distance. Mendes will want to turn this into a scrap, plain and simple. Take the fight into the later rounds, somewhere McGregor has never been and stifle his movement.

This is a classic Striker vs Grappler fight. There has been plenty of excitement before and there will be plenty of drama after but the fight itself will be the most exciting thing to watch as the McGregor show faces its biggest obstacle to date.

Prediction – Chand Mendes via Unanimous Decision