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UFC 194 takes place this SundayUFC 194 is finally here. Month of build-up, hours of debate and never ending coverage all come to a head this Sunday. The main card for 194 is as stacked as any card has been since UFC 100 all those years ago.There is something for everyone this Sunday. A long time king faces a Phenom on the cusp of superstardom beyond measure. Two well rounded fighters slugging it out for a title in the prime of their respective careers. An Olympic silver medallist faces a world renowned grappler. Two of the best BJJ practitioners in the UFC collide and a rising star looks to take his stock to the next level against a fighter in his prime looking to push his way into title contention.For a detailed preview of the co-main event between middleweight champion Chris Weidman and challenger Luke Rockhold, click here And for a detailed preview of the highly anticipated featherweight world title unification bout between Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor, click here The story lines are as varied as they are intriguing and the fights are as exciting as they are unpredictable. Here we look at the first 3 fights on the card.
#1 Max Holloway vs. Jeremy Stephens
On a weekend where the spotlight is firmly fixed on the featherweight division, Max Holloway could be forgiven for feeling a little short-changed. Aldo-McGregor, Edgar-Mendes and he gets Jeremy Stephens, whose last 2 losses were Holloway’s last 2 wins.
Holloway is on a spectacular win streak having won the last 7 of his fights. What’s even scarier about Holloway is that he continues to get better. Still only 24, he is a far while away from his athletic peak.
There was a time when Holloway’s grappling was the chink in his armour. However Holloway has worked tirelessly at it and has now converted that weakness into another weapon in his impressive arsenal. He has become very difficult to pin down and is well versed in the offensive art of Jiu Jitsu.
Holloway has a tendency to bite down on his mouth piece and swing for the fences. Against someone who possess the power of Jeremy Stephens, any attempts to ‘stand and bang’ on Holloway’s part would be foolish. Instead he must trust his technique and work from distance.
Stephens is a boxer and fighting him at range will expose significant flaws in his game.
Stephens also tends to lunge into his opponents with explosive strikes. Against a less proficient striker it may pay dividends but any reaching attacks will be the perfect set up for Holloway to counter and go for the finish.
Back to back defeats to Cub Swanson and Charles Oliveira left Stephens out in the cold for a while. However he reminded everyone of his skill and knockout power against Dennis Bermudez at UFC 189. The win was a bit overshadowed by the fact that Stephens missed weight.
Stephens will have to take the initiative in the fight and force Holloway to stay at a close distance. He needs to apply constant pressure and not allow Holloway to hit and move too often. Turning the striking into pure or dirty boxing will be the most prudent strategy on Stephens’ part.
At range, Holloway has too many tools to work with and Stephens is a bit dry. However in the pocket, Stephens' big punches come into play and could earn him to win he needs to be back in the conversation for a top 5 ranking.
Jeremy Stephens is a tough test for young Max Holloway and is a test he cannot afford to fail. A loss for Holloway will ruin much of the momentum he has built up and would be a major setback in his career.
However despite Stephens’ knockout power, Holloway is far too technical for him and is too good of a counter striker for Stephens to handle.
Prediction: - Max Holloway via Unanimous Decision
#2 Gunnar Nelson vs. Damian Maia
A fight straight out of Jiu Jitsu heaven. This is a fight that people have been crying out for, since Nelson got into the UFC. For a while it seemed as if this wouldn’t happen given Maia’s age and proximity to retirement.
When Damian Maia is at his best he is an anaconda who will stick to his opponent and break them first physically then mentally. Maia will have a significant size advantage having competed for the middleweight title at one point in his career and there are those that believe Nelson should drop down to Lightweight.
Maia will look to close the distance and shoot for the takedown. When Maia is at his best, it is almost impossible to stop him from taking you down.
Once he has Nelson on the mat though it will be difficult for Maia to submit him. Nelson is an elite grappler in his own right and should be able to defend Maia’s BJJ offence. Nelson will also find it very difficult to take Maia down and could surrender top position in an attempt to secure a take down.
Nelson mixes his grappling background with solid Karate. His striking, while not the most distinguished in the welterweight division, is a notch above Maia’s. Kickboxing is Nelson’s best bet in this fight.
While he is more than capable of holding his own against Maia on the ground, he has a clear advantage on his feet. His unorthodox style and unusual footwork are an additional benefit making him unpredictable and dangerous to even the most experienced of strikers.
Maintaining distance will be the key for Nelson in this fight. Using his kickboxing and karate to shut Maia down and staying away from the takedowns will all be in his best interest. Nelson’s main goal has to be to stop Maia’s plan A. The Brazilian doesn’t have much beyond that.
Hopefully there will be some good grappling exchanges for the BJJ die hards out there however when it comes down to it, Nelson has far more in his locker than Maia does
Prediction: - Gunnar Nelson via Unanimous Decision
#3 Ronaldo Jacare Souza vs. Yoel Romeo
These two have been on a collision course for a while now. The two top ranked middleweights will slug it out in an unofficial number 1 contender’s match.
Jacare is riding a 8 fight winning streak since losing his Strikeforce middleweight title to Luke Rockhold. Yoel Romero on the other hand has also not been beaten since the night Rockhold became Strikeforce champion.
Most of his finishes in the fights he has had in the UFC have ended in violent fashion.
Jacare is an elite level grappler. However against a wrestler as qualified as Romero, takedowns and mounts will be difficult to execute. To overcome Romero, Jacare will have to be effective in each department of his game.
His elite BJJ, his ferocious striking and his strong takedowns. To counter Romero’s wrestling prowess, Jacare will have to pressure punch and force Romero onto the cage. Despite having devastating knock out ability, Romero is no brawler and is not as well rounded as Jacare is on his feet.
Romero relies on feints and a sudden explosion to take his opponents out. He has used this to put away many a fighter, most famously Lyoto Machida in his last fight. His explosive abilities however will be nullified if Jacare can keep him pinned up against the cage with no room to move in.
Romero also tends to get sloppy as fights wear on and fatigue sets in, something he cannot afford to do against Jacare.
Romero’s athleticism has allowed him to become a dangerous striker. He is one of the most explosive fighters in the UFC and has elite reactions as well. Romero needs to set the pace of the fight and manage distance well.
He needs to keep Jacare on the outside and punish him every time he tries to get too close. Romero needs to be aggressive and not hold back from testing Jacare’s chin with his power. An all-out striking exchange could allow him to use his power to stop Jacare or at least create the opening he needs to score a takedown.
With a title shot on the line, this is a high stakes battle. However given that both men are in their late 30s’, this could be the last chance either of them have to fight for a UFC title. The middleweight division is a shark tank and a slip up for either man could be the end of his title aspirations.
Despite Romero’s elite wrestling, Jacare has a bit too much to work with. Romero’s stamina is also subject to failure in the later rounds of fights and against someone has versatile as Jacare, getting sloppy is a recipe for disaster.
Prediction: - Ronaldo Jacare Souza via Submission, Round 3
