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The 2022 NFL season has been the wildest season that I have seen in many years. There have been many exciting plays to talk about. Many teams ended games with a victory or a defeat in the last minute of the game. There have been many controversial calls when it came to “roughing the passer” that were discussed and rehashed over the course of the season. Unfortunately, in certain games, it may have changed the outcome of those games. For the first time that I can remember, a game was actually cancelled because a player almost died on the field. My prayers and wishes go out to Buffalo Bills CB Damar Hamlin for a speedy and healthy recovery.
There have also been a lot of teams still in the hunt for the playoffs so late in the season. There has also been a lot of games that were won by the DOGS. If you have been following the season as I have and have been watching closely how the season has been turning out, you will notice at my calculation that the DOGS are currently +29 for the 2022 season going into week 18. Now, as I said before and I’ll say again, “Betting lines are like Interest rates, if you shop around, you’ll find one that you like.”
The lines that I have used during my time as an NFL Analyst & Prognosticator, is the Caesars Line in Las Vegas. It is the most widely used and respected line and no one has ever questioned a line that I have posted. I use the line that is current at the time that I analyze the game. Now, if a line changes dramatically due to a player movement, coach’s movement or sudden weather forecast, I will adjust that line and re-evaluate my analysis based on the changing environment.
As you may or may not know from reading my articles here on Sportskeeda.com, the DOGS have only been this prevalent 1x in the last 10 seasons. That season was the 2019 season when the DOGS finished a +23 ahead of the FAVS. Other seasons looking back it was under ten for either the DOGS or the FAVs. Now going into the final week of the season, you may be ahead on your bets for the season and you may lay off betting for the 18th week of the 2022 NFL season. You figure, you did well and you don’t want to give money back.
You also may be far behind on your bets and for another reason, you may lay off betting this weekend. You may not want to get deeper and deeper in the hole. But as most people who gamble, you may be circling around the .500 level. Now for reasons that I am going to show you, if you are planning on betting this weekend, you still should be careful and try to find that edge that gamblers are always looking for.
We are only going back to and including 2013. Every season, in the last week of the season, there are teams that have not been eliminated from playoff contention and still have a legitimate shot at getting into the playoffs. Now, I am not talking about these teams that are 1-10% mathematically still in the playoff hunt. I am talking about teams that if they win, they are in. I am also talking about teams that can better their playoff seeding by winning in the last week of the season. Most teams that are still in it, need at least a win to get into the playoffs. It is a rare situation where a team loses in the last week of the season and they back themselves into the playoffs.
Depending if the team you are looking at has a legitimate chance of getting into the playoffs, you should understand if they are going to be listed as a DOG or a FAV for this weekend. Now, I am not going to list every scenario dating back to 2013 for every team that still had a shot at the playoffs in the last week of the season. That could fill a textbook. But what I am going to show you is that you CANNOT go to heavy on one side or the other.
For example, in 2013, leading up to wk 17, the DOGS were ahead for the season +6. What happened in wk 17? The FAVS won the week 10-6. The season tally ended up being DOGS+2.
In 2014, leading up to wk 17, the FAVS were actually ahead that season by +2. What happened in wk 17? The DOGS won eight games and the FAVS won eight games. That season ended up with the FAVS @+2.
In 2015, leading up to wk 17, the DOGS were +2 when there were a lot of teams that still had a legitimate shot at the playoffs. What happened that week? The DOGS went 11-4-1 ATS and the DOGS ended up +9 for the season.
In 2016, leading up to wk 17, the DOGS were +6 on the season. Again, you would need to decide if a team was serious in their pursuit of the playoffs or just trying to go out on a positive note. The FAVS won the week 9-6 ATS and the DOGS still finished the season @+3.
In 2017, leading up to week 17, the FAVS were actually at +1 on the season. There might have been some teams that were in serious contention with not too big of a spread because, the FAVS went 10-6 ATS to finish up the season @+5.
In 2018, leading up to wk 17, the DOGS were @+9 for the season. In wk 17 the DOGS and FAVS were 8-8 ATS. Pretty even when you look at it and if you were a DOG better you still came out ahead for the season but things ended up pretty much equally for wk 17.
In 2019, leading up to wk 17 the DOGS were at an amazing +21 for the season. This season was the anomaly. You would think that things would sway back to the other side for wk 17 as often is the case. Sometimes we don’t have control and things sort of even out over time. But the DOG won again and went 9-7 ATS ending the season at +23. Over the first six weeks of that season, the DOGS were +18 but the rest of the way the FAVS fought back and only gave 5 games the rest of the season. I said that things sort of find a way out.
In 2020, the COVID season where games were played on every day of the week and not one games was cancelled (miraculously), the DOGS were +5 going into the last week of the season. That season which was pretty much topsy turvy, and had teams playing without players because of COVID only had one week (Wk 8) where either side dominated. That week, DOGS were 10-4 ATS. In the last week of the season, FAVS went 9-6-1 ATS to finish the season DOGS+2.
In 2021, FAVS were +1 going into the last week of the season. This is another one of those seasons that overall was pretty equal. Well in wk 18, the last week of the season, the DOGS went 10-6 ATS to finish the season +3. This is the only season that went from a positive to a negative.
In 2022, DOGS are plus +29 going into the last week of the season. No, that’s not a misprint. Do the FAVS dominate this weekend or do the DOGS? Are there teams that will play hard with something at stake or are there teams that are just writing it in? Will the FAVS dominate in a way that tries to even out the scales? In 2022, the FAVS didn’t have a week that they really dominated. Is it the level of play that caused the DOGS to be so far ahead? My advice to you is that things have a way of evening out and I would not go too far on one side if you are involved in a pool. If you have been winning, it would be wise to keep using the strategy that you have been using and stick to it. My feeling is that you need to be smart and do your due diligence on who you think is serious this week and who you think has already packed up and gone home.
My point is this, you cannot decide to put your money all on one side. You have to decide for yourself if the team that you feel strongly about (whether a FAV or a DOG) has what it takes to win or cover in the last week of the season. There will always be teams that are not even in the conversation that play a game that is perfect and spoil a team’s chances for getting into the playoffs. You must decide which team has more incentives to win the game. I hope that my articles have given you some insight into the world of NFL Prognosticating and you have wagered your money wisely. Take care and hopefully we will talk, wild card weekend.
Jeff Cadillac can be found at www.jeffcadillac.com where he analyzes every NFL game every week. He can also be found on the Bettor Sports Network app on Friday nights at 7:30pm EST on the “Rick Kamla Show” discussing NFL games. Jeff also appears as a frequent guest on the Dr. Roto show also on the Bettor Sports Network. He is on Twitter @Jeffcadillac1 where he posts his BEST BET of the WEEK every week on Fridays. He also co-hosts a weekly video for Sideline Sports called the “J & J Sports Express” on Wednesday evenings where they discuss NFL games. That video can be seen LIVE & is posted on Twitter and YouTube. He can be emailed at [email protected].
