Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 28

The (#8) Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) will visit the (#21) Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville on Wednesday night. Alabama blitzed Jackson State 84-64 out on the court last time, avenging their recent loss to Gonzaga Bulldogs. Freshman phenom Brandon Miller stuffed the stat sheet, going for 10 points, 14 rebounds, three assists, and three steals on 43% from the field. Two-time All-Southern honoree and former Furman Paladin Noah Gurley scored a team-high 16 points, while 2021-22 All-MAC and Ohio transfer Mark Sears added 15. Freshman standout Noah Clowney, Texas Tech transfer Nimari Burnett, and St. Bonaventure transfer Dom Welch were out for the game against Jackson State. Clowney expects to be back on Wednesday, while Welch's debut is right around the corner. Burnett is out indefinitely after undergoing wrist surgery in mid-December.

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Alabama Crimson Tide	-1	0141	-115
Mississippi State Bulldogs	+1	u141	-105

All Lines Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

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Mississippi State suffered their first defeat last Tuesday to Drake with the final score reading 58-52. The Bulldogs turned it over 17 times, leading to 13 points off of turnovers. Southeast Missouri State transfer Eric Reed was the only Bulldog in double-figure with 11. Leading scorer Tolu Smith was solid, adding nine points and six rebounds on 4-of-6 from the field, but the 2019 top prospect and former Memphis Tiger D.J. Jeffries struggled, shooting 14% from the field and turning it over a season-high six times.

ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

We will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

Crimson Tide have high-frequency numbers in catch-and-shoot three-point, finishing at the rim, off the dribble three, and P&R shots. They are in the top 130 in all those shot types, highlighted by a 1.07 SQ PPP in P&R shot types (17th in the country).

Conversely, the Bulldogs are eighth in defending the P&R. They have a 1.08 AdjOFF SQ, the 58th-best mark in the country. Alabama have posted a 0.93 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 35th in the country. The Bulldogs are in the top 60 in shot selection, and rim and three SQ PPP. Crimson Tide are in the 12th percentile in defensive shot selection, and 42nd in defensive rim and three SQ PPP.

Mississippi State are in the country's top half in frequency with respect to the following shot types: catch-and-shoot three-pointers, finishing at the rim, half-court, midrange, off-screen, and post-up. In contrast, Alabama find themselves in the top 80 in defending all those shot types except catch-and-shoot three-pointers, where they own a 1.03 SQ PPP (216th in the country), midrange, where they own a 0.78 SQ PPP (147th), and post-up, where they own a 0.88 SQ PPP (178th).

Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction

Alabama are one of the fastest-tempo teams in the country, while Mississippi State are one of the slowest. Suppose the Bulldogs are to hang, as SQ and Vegas suggest; either Mississippi will need to hit their shots or have the Crimson Tide play at a slower and more preferred pace. The Bulldogs thrive in the half-court, yet the Tide have been strong defending that shot type all season. Meanwhile, the spacing that the Crimson Tide create on offense should pose a problem for Mississippi. The over can certainly be a play, but off of SQ data, Crimson Tide have a favorable chance of leaving Starkville with a win.