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The (#25) Arizona State Sun Devils (11-1) will visit the San Francisco Dons (9-4) on Wednesday night. Arizona State has been on a roll as of late, winning nine straight, and their only loss of the season came by one point against Texas Southern at home in early November. The Devils dominated last Sunday, beating San Diego into submission 91-67.
Two-time All-MWC and Nevada transfer Desmond Cambridge had a season-high 23 points on 8-of-14 shooting in the win. Every Sun Devil starter scored in double-figures, highlighted by Devan Cambridge, the brother of Desmond, and his 13-point, 11-rebound double-double. ASU finished 14-of-30 from beyond the arc as they eclipsed 90 points in a game for the first time this season.
Surprisingly, they are doing all this without the services of Marcus Bagley. A top prospect in 2020, Bagley has been out most of the season with what many see as a rift between the coaching staff and himself.
Arizona State vs. San Francisco State Betting Odds
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San Francisco most recently suffered a shocking home loss to UT-Arlington 68-63. The Dons closed as a 14.5-point favorite but trailed by as much as 17 and never led in the contest. Washington State transfer Tyrell Roberts dropped a career-high 24 points in the loss. Two-time All-WCC guard Khalil Shabazz struggled to find his groove, finishing 4-of-13 from the field with 11 points and three turnovers. The Dones were outscored in the paint 36-10 and committed five more fouls.
Arizona State vs. San Francisco State Match Details
Fixture: Arizona State at San Francisco
Date and Time: Wednesday, December 21, 10:00 pm ET
Venue: War Memorial Gymnasium, San Francisco, CA
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions
The Arizona State Sun Devils own a 1.08 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 52nd in the nation. San Francisco has the 86th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.96. ASU does well in all key stats but open three rate and rim & three rate, where they rank in the bottom third of the country. Conversely, the Dons are in the top 65 in the country in defensive open three rate and rim % three rate.
The Sun Devils own high-frequency numbers in isolation, midrange, off-the-dribble three-pointers, off-screen, P&R ball screen, and transition shot types. ASU is in the top 60 in all those shot types except isolation, with a 0.94 SQ PPP (119th in the country), midrange with a 0.74 SQ PPP (134th), off-the-dribble three-pointers with a 0.96 SQ PPP (275th), and off-screen with a 0.93 SQ PPP (313th). Conversely, the Dons are top 50 in all those categories except 160th in isolation (0.91 SQ PPP), 101st in off-the-dribble three-pointers (0.97 SQ PPP), and 189th in transition (1.23 SQ PPP).
The San Francisco Dons have a 1.01 AdjOFF SQ, the 165th-best mark in the country. Arizona State has posted a 1.00 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 148th in the country. The Dons are in the top 80 in shot selection, spacing, and rim & three rate. The Sun Devils are in the bottom 12th percentile in defensive spacing while excelling in shot selection (31st percentile) and rim & three rate (85%).
San Francisco is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, half-court, isolation, off-the-dribble three-pointers, off-screen, and P&R ball screens. SF is in the top 150 in all those shot types per SQ PPP except catch & shoot three-pointers (275th in the country). Arizona State is in the top 100 in defending all those shot types except catch & shoot three-pointers and isolation, where they own a 1.02 (170th) and 0.90 SQ PPP (129th).
Oregon vs. Washington State Prediction
Correction and pace suggest this game should hit the over, but the matchup does no favors for San Francisco. First, I'm a big Khalil Shabazz fan, and I love the transfers they brought in, but former head coach Todd Golden is with Florida now, and two-time All-WCC guard Jamaree Bouyea has since graduated.
Meanwhile, Arizona State matches up well with what SF is trying to do on offense, and if the Devils can get out and run in transition, they should be able to keep up the scoring. The Devils are yet to face a proper road test this season outside of a neutral court clash with Michigan, but I like their prospects as we advance with or without Marcus Bagley.
Prediction: Arizona State -3 (-110)
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