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(#10) Arizona Wildcats (7-1) will play (#14) Indiana Hoosiers (8-1) in the Las Vegas Clash on Saturday. Arizona recovered well from a loss against Utah with a 81-68 home win against California Golden Bears last Sunday. The Wildcats' leading scorer, Azuolas Tubelis, had 25 points and 12 rebounds in the win, increasing his season points average past 20. Lithuanian guard Kerr Kriisa, who averages 12.8 points per game, struggled with his shot but distributed a team-high eight assists. Courtney Ramey, a former fourth-year starter at Texas, former blue-chip prospect Oumar Ballo, and Campbell transfer Cedric Henderson also scored in double digits. Jack-of-all-trades guard Pelle Larsson struggled in the win but is still averaging 9.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game on 46% shooting.
Arizona vs. Indiana Betting Odds
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Indiana recovered from a road loss with a home win over Nebraska 81-65. Big man Trayce Jackson-Davis, arguably one of the best forwards in the country, dropped a triple-double with three steals and three blocks in the game. Sophomore Trey Galloway has struggled with consistency this season while missing time with a knee injury, though he was masterful against Nebraska, scoring a team-high 20 points on 4-of-6 from the deep. However, second-leading scorer Xavier Johnson had his worst game in a long time, scoring four points on 25% from the field and turning it over a season-high seven times.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
We will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions
Arizona
Offensive Key Stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjOFF SQ = 1.10 (32nd)
Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.17 (2nd)
Shot Selection = 100th Percentile (3rd)
Free Throw Rate (FTR) = 41.2% (24th)
Shot Making = 77th Percentile (72nd)
Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Finishing at the Rim = `1.29 (3rd)
P&R Ball Screen = 1.04 (14th)
Transition = 1.41 (71st)
Cut = 1.21 (77th)
Off the Dribble 3PT = 1.02 (98th)
Defensive key stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjDEF SQ = 0.97 (112th)
Rim and 3 Rate = 80.1% (9th)
Shot Making = 11th Percentile (42nd)
Shot Selection = 14th Percentile (55th)
Open 3 Rate = 28.0% (240th)
Spacing = 68th Percentile (266th)
Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
P&R Ball Screen = 0.90 (21st)
Midrange = 0.73 (27th)
Transition = 1.19 (40th)
Cut = 1.02 (55th)
Isolation = 0.92 (196th)
Off the Dribble 3PT = 1.00 (211th)
* = outside top 175 but added for matchup sake.
Indiana
Offensive Key Stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjOFF SQ = 1.10 (39th)
Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.17 (1st)
Shot Selection = 99th (5th)
Rim and 3 Rate =86.2% (218th)
Shot Making = 32nd Percentile (237th)
Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Finishing at the Rim = 1.29 (2nd)
Cut = 1.28 (28th)
Transition = 1.49 (31st)
Post-Up = 0.89 (145th)
Midrange = 0.75 (248th)
Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.00 (261st)
Defensive key stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjDEF SQ = 0.94 (50th)
Rim and 3 Rate = 82.9% (26th)
Shot Selection = 9th Percentile (34th)
Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.02 (42nd)
Shot Making = 14th Percentile (56th)
FTR = 26.7% (94th)
Spacing = 76th Percentile (290th)
Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.00 (22nd)
Isolation = 0.84 (47th)
P&R Ball Screen = 0.97 (67th)
Off the Dribble 3PT = 0.96 (96th)
Half Court = 0.96 (101st)
Midrange = 0.80 (257th)
Post-Up = 0.91 (274th)
Off-Screen = 1.06 (315th)
* = outside top 175 but added for matchup sake.
Arizona vs. Indiana Prediction
The Arizona Wildcats have had their fair share of big wins this season, having beaten San Diego State, Cincinnati, and Creighton. Meanwhile, aside from Xavier, the Hoosiers of Indiana have yet to see a formidable foe and none that have the talent available at Arizona's disposal. ShotQuality also suggests that the Wildcats can challenge the Hoosiers at the rim and can contain TJD on account of their superior size. The Wildcats have more experience and a deeper roster in this neutral-court matchup.
Prediction: Arizona ML (-125)
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