Astros Mariners Odds and Predictions

The American League Division Series will shift to Seattle as the Mariners take on the Houston Astros in Game 3 of the best-of-five series. The Astros played spoiler yet again on Tuesday, scoring three unanswered runs in a 4-2 win.

Astros RF Kyle Tucker gave Houston a 1-0 lead before the Mariners answered back with a pair of runs in the fourth. Seattle SP Luis Castillo was cruising through 5.2 innings before giving up a bases-empty single to SS Jeremy Pena.

Two pitches later, slugger Yordan Alvarez sent a 98-MPH fastball into the Crawford Boxes in left field for a go-ahead two-run blast. Alvarez, nicknamed "YorGod" by some, is living up to his name, slugging a stupid 1.375 in eight postseason at-bats. The Astros added an insurance run in the eighth before RP Ryan Pressley shut the door in the ninth with a strikeout from Ty France.

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The Astros will deploy Lance McCullers Jr. to start Game 3 of the ALDS. McCullers missed most of the 2022 season battling through a forearm injury, but unlike most pitchers coming off a lengthy stint on the IL, the righty dominated his competition in eight starts. The former first-round pick posted his lowest ERA (2.27) and ERA+ (171) in his seven-year career, albeit in only 47.2 innings.

McCullers is no stranger to postseason play, having already pitched in 16 games dating back to his rookie season in 2015. Most importantly, the former All-Star performs at his best on the biggest stage, owning a superb 2.83 ERA in 57.1 playoff innings. However, his postseason ERA is inflated on the road as it sits at a respectable 3.35 in 32.2 innings.

Like Game 2 starter Framber Valdez, McCullers has made a career pitching against the Mariners. in 18 career starts, the righty is 10-3 with a 2.80 ERA. He is equally dominant at T-Mobile Park in Seattle; however, he is only 4-3 when Seattle plays host to Houston.

Meanwhile, Seattle rookie George Kirby will make his first postseason career start. However, the righty pitched in the Wild Card series, earning the save in the Mariners' dramatic comeback win against the Blue Jays. Kirby, a former top-50 prospect in the MLB pipeline, shot up the Minor League ranks to make his debut after just 52 innings between AA and AAA.

Nevertheless, the Elon product should get some downvotes for the Rookie of the Year Award, thanks partly to a solid 3.39 ERA with 133 punchouts in 130 innings. Kirby has one career appearance against Houston, surrendering two earned runs on three hits while striking out seven over four innings. After allowing a pair of runs in the first, the rookie retired nine of the last 10, four via the strikeout. Kirby has similar home/road splits, although his ERA is a tick lower at T-Mobile Park despite his OPS being nearly 30 points higher.

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Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Houston Astros	-1.5 (Barstool)	o7 (Betfred)	-104 (Barstool)
Seattle Mariners	+1.5 (SuperBook)	u7 (BetMGM)	-102 (FanDuel)

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners Betting Prediction

Although the Seattle Mariners stole the hearts of America, it was only a matter of time before the clock struck zero on their Cinderella run. The Houston Astros, probably America's least-loved team, have owned their division foes over the years and the playoffs seem no different. The Mariners have a ton of young talent, including Saturday's starter George Kirby, and should become a mainstay in the postseason for years to come. Unfortunately, they ran into a juggernaut that has proven to be more than just cheaters and con artists. I expect Lance McCullers and company to shut the door on Seattle in the form of a clean sweep.

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