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2022 NFL SCHEDULE WEEK 13 (ATS)
All times Eastern Standard Time
ALL SPREADS ARE COURTESY OF CAESARS HOTEL IN LAS VEGAS @ THE TIME OF ANALYSIS
BYES: Arizona Cardinals & Carolina Panthers
Sunday December 4th, 2022 1:00pm
NY Jets (7-4), (7-4) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (4-1) ATS @ Minnesota Vikings (9-2), (6-4-1) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (3-2-1) ATS NYJ+3
LW on TNF, MINN @HOME beat NE by a 33-26 score. MINN only had 57yds of rushing so it was left to MINN QB Kirk Cousins to carry the load. He didn’t disappoint going 30/37, 299 yds, 3TDs & 1INT. He spread the ball around to seven different receivers and didn’t have any fumbles. The INT that Cousins had did turn into a fg by NE that temporarily gave NE a 10-7 lead. But by the half, it was 16-16.
The MINN DEF did make stops in the 4th qtr which led to the win. It was a much-needed win for MINN coming off that big loss @HOME vs DAL. LW, NYJ QB Mike White came in a did a great job vs CHI. Granted, CHI was without QB Justin Fields or RB Khalil Herbert which takes away a lot of the CHI running game. CHI did manage 127yd rushing but CHI was playing catchup for all of the 2nd half. CHI QB Trevor Siemian was starting and the team was not the same. White did his job throwing for over 300yds and 3tds while the NYJ DEF kept CHI in check. The NYJ won the game 31-10. It was a nice win for NYJ and they need to keep winning if they have their eyes on the playoffs.
L4 NYJ vs MINN, NYJ 2-2 SU & 2-1-1 ATS. MINN 33-32-2 ATS @HOME in DEC. MINN 31-40-2 ATS as a FAV in DEC. MINN 24-20-2 ATS L46 in DEC. MINN 9-11 ATS w/rest. MINN 2-7 ATS as a FAV <6pts off SU non-conf win. MINN 1-7 ATS w/rest vs >.500 opp. NYJ 5-11-2 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. NYJ 38-30-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. NYJ 46-38-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYJ 8-10 SU & 8-9-1 ATS L18 vs NFC NORTH. NYJ 9-7 ATS before BUFF. NYJ 10-15 ATS as a ROAD DOG 4<pts. NYJ 4-13-2 ATS vs opp w/rest. NYJ 10-19 ATS L29 after scoring 25>pts. NYJ 5-16-1 ATS as a ROAD DOG <17pts vs opp off SUATS win.
MINN is a phony. Look who they have beaten. They have beaten GB, DET, @NO(London) barely, CHI(PUSH), @MIA, ARZ, @WASH(barely), @BUFF, NE. MIA was vs a 3rd string QB. The BUFF game was where the BUFF team turned into no-D, NO OFF team that gave the game away. I give them credit for the NE game because NE is still middle of the pack and can beat some teams. The NYJ have a QB that brings excitement to the game. Mike White sees the field better than Zach Wilson and lifts his teammates do better. I like the matchup of CB Sauce Gardner on WR Justin Jefferson and let the rest of the NYJ secondary play the matchups. The DEF for NYJ gets to the QB and Cousins is susceptible to mistakes.
The NYJ DEF has 12INTS & 34 sacks. NYJ #5 TOT DEF w/#8 PASS DEF & #12 RUSH DEF.
Is the O-LINE for MINN so good that they can keep the NYJ DEF away from Cousins? He has been sacked 28x this season. That equals what he was sacked for all of 2021. He is on pace to be sacked the most times in his career. Some of those sacks resulted in lost fumbles. Look for that this weekend. White should have a good game this weekend vs a soft MINN DEF. I don’t see the NYJ getting blown out because they have something to play for. But we have seen stranger things this season. I like the NYJ in this game because they match up well vs MINN and NYJ should stop the run completely and put it all on Cousins shoulders. Take the NYJ here.
THE PICK: NYJ+3
Sunday December 4th, 2022 1:00pm
Washington Commanders (7-5), (8-4) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (4-2) ATS @ NY Giants (7-4), (8-3) ATS, (4-2) HOME, (4-2) ATS NYG+1 ½
The WAH DEF is playing tough no matter who they are playing. They are not giving up much and their D-LINE made a play vs ATL that saved the game for WASH. ATL QB Marcus Mariota threw a ball that was tipped at the line by DT Daron Payne and intercepted by WASH CB Kendall Fuller in the endzone that sealed the 19-13 win for WASH. I liked WASH-3 ½ in this game and it was my BEST BET of the week. How can you not ride the momentum that WASH QB Taylor Heinicke brings to this team?
The WASH OFF rushed for 176yds on 37 carries but the WASH DEF gave up167yds on 29 carries to ATL. But it was major stop and win for WASH. NYG are coming off a Thanksgiving loss @DAL. I liked DAL-9 but we won’t go into the circumstances on how the score ended up DAL 28-20. Anyway, NYG actually had a 13-7 halftime lead in this game but didn’t score another point until :08 left in the game. NYG looked very good in the 1st half but DAL shut them down in the 2nd half and the NYG DEF couldn’t stop DAL at all who scored 21 straight points to put the game out of reach for NYG. Also, NYG DEF had no answer for the DAL run game that rushed for 169yds & 2tds on 39 carries. NYG RB Saquon Barkley was held to 39yds,1td on 11 carries. Because of injuries to receiver corps, NYG QB Daniel Jones is limited to who he can rely on to throw to.
Also, the NYG DEF didn’t sack DAL QB Dak Prescott 1x but Jones was sacked 3x. L15 NYG(H) vs WASH, NYG 10-5 SU but 7-8 ATS. L26 NYG vs WASH, DOG 15-11 ATS. NYG 14-21 ATS L35 as a HOME DOG. NYG 5-9 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. NYG 44-34 ATS as a DOG in DEC. NYG 32-31 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. NYG 35-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. NYG 4-9-1 ATS L14 after DAL. NYG 5-0 ATS w/rest vs .700<opp off SU win. WASH 7-3 ATS L10 as a ROAD FAV. WASH 5-10 ATS since 2007 wk before their bye. WASH 26-40 ATS vs NFC EAST in DEC. WASH 39-31 ATS AWAY in DEC. WASH 33-29 ATS as a FAV in DEC. WASH 12-4 ATS off 3+ATS wins. WASH 9-5 ATS as a FAV vs opp off BB SU losses.
The NYG have started out nicely but because of injuries and inconsistent play they are going backwards and are in jeopardy of going on a losing streak. WASH is going in the right direction having started the season on the losing side. WASH is getting stronger each week and are giving opposing teams more things to worry about. Also, is WASH DE Chase Young going to be available? He will bring more things for the NYG O-LINE to game plan against. WASH QB Taylor Heinicke gives the team added energy and belief that they can beat anyone. Hey, they convincingly beat PHILLY @PHILLY. NYG Daniel Jones has his work cut out for him as the only healthy reliable guy, other than him is RB Saquon Barkley. But, the two of them can’t do it alone. There are also injuries to the NYG O-LINE which makes Jones an endangered species. He will have pressure on him all game. WASH cannot let NYG run game get going. WASH #8 TOT DEF w/#8 RUSH DEF & #10 PASS DEF. Let Jones throw to his less experienced receiver corps. This is going to be a good game but I have to give the edge to WASH. With all the injuries to NYG at the receiver corps, I am surprised that WASH is not favored by more. But I will take WASH laying the 1 ½ .
THE PICK: WASH-1 ½
Sunday December 4th, 2022 1:00pm
Tennessee Titans (7-4), (8-3) ATS, (4-2) AWAY, (5-1) ATS @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-1), (5-5-1) ATS, (5-1) HOME, (4-1-1) ATS TENN+6
LW, TENN was @HOME vs CINNCY. TENN was @HOME as a HOME DOG +1 ½ . I felt that they had a strong shot at winning this game outright because the TENN DEF doesn’t give up much and they usually don’t make mistakes. This was tight game throughout and neither team had a turnover. It was 10-10 at the half. TENN RB Derrick Henry was held to 38yds rushing but had 79yds receiving. TENN could not muster a td on OFF except for a recovery from a Derrick Henry fumble that was recovered by TENN WR Treylon Burks in the endzone for a td.
Other than that, TENN had 3fgs. But with 1:53 left in the game and CINNCY leading 20-16, CINNCY was setting up for a fg that would have made it a 7pt game but would have given the ball back to TENN. Instead, there was an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on TENN and CINNCY got to keep the ball and run out the clock for 20-16 win. That’s how close this game was. TENN had a missed fg in the 1st half that may have had a part in how the 2nd half was played. LW, on SNF, GB+7 was @PHILLY. I like PHILLY but, GB was playing toe-to-toe with GB. PHILLY even knocked out GB QB Aaron Rodgers but when QB Jordan Love came in he ignited GB and mounted a few scoring drives.
PHILLY could have gone for a td late and made the score 44-30 which would have made GB ultimately go for tds. But instead PHILLY kicked a fg to make it 40-30. GB added a fg and tried to do an onside kick but to no avail. The final score was PHILLY 40-33. But in this game, PHILLY rushed for 363yds, 3tds on 49 carries. PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts rushed for 157yds and passed for 153 yds & 2tds. Even though PHILLY won, their DEF did give up a lot to GB. This game was PHILLY 27-20 at the half and it was far from over. PHILLY ran 77 OFF plays to GB’s 46 plays and PHILLY only won by 7pts. GB made the most of their opportunities event though Rodgers threw 2INTS.
L4 PHILLY vs TENN, TENN 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS. PHILLY 7-10 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. PHILLY 36-28 ATS @HOME in DEC. PHILLY 40-37 ATS as a FAV in DEC. PHILLY 23-15 ATS L38 vs AFC. PHILLY 8-14 ATS before NYG. PHILLY 14-7 ATS vs .400> non-conf opp. PHILLY 2-9 ATS as a non-conf FAV <7pts off BB SU wins. PHILLY 3-13 ATS as a non-conf FAV off BB SU wins. PHILLY 9-1 ATS as a FAV <7pts after scoring 35>pts. PHILLY 9-0 ATS as a non-div FAV <7pts after scoring 35>pts. TENN 27-33 ATS AWAY in DEC. TENN 28-30 ATS as a DOG in DEC. TENN 10-3 ATS vs .750>opp off SU win. TENN 8-1 ATS L9 AWAY vs NFC EAST.
TENN is one of those teams that plays solid football. Their games are very tight and they usually don’t make mistakes. They have only given up more than 22pts in a game 1x and that was week 2 @BUFF. Other than that, they play control football. PHILLY #2 TOT DEF & #4 TOT OFF. TENN RB Derrick Henry is overdue for a big game. His last 100yd game was in the loss at KC in wk 9. I think he will bust out and give TENN the advantage. The O-LINE for TENN needs to do their job big in this game. Plus, the D-LINE for TENN has to play big too. This is like a playoff game for TENN and they have to come through. If they fall flat, TENN is not going anywhere in the playoffs. TENN vs playoff teams this season, 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS. Big test for TENN, I like their chances. If I was TENN HC Mike Vrabel, I would yell and scream how important this game is. I hope TENN hears him.
THE PICK: TENN+6
Sunday December 4th, 2022 4:00pm
Miami Dolphins (8-3), (6-5) ATS, (3-2) AWAY, (2-3) ATS @ SF 49ers (7-4), (6-5) ATS, (4-1) HOME, (3-2) ATS MIA+3 ½
LW, MIA stormed out to a 30-0 lead @HOME vs HOU. MIA took QB Tua Tagovailoa out of the game and then coasted the rest of the way. HOU almost made a game out of it scoring 15pts and looking for more. The spread was MIA-12 and I liked MIA but, with DEFs being so lax in the NFL, anything was possible. Luckily, HOU did not get any closer. MIA will have its hands full this weekend. LW, SF was @HOME vs NO. SF was heavy FAV@-9 ½. I liked NO because I felt they could keep it close. They were keeping it close but a lost fumble by NO RB Alvin Kamara at the SF goal line stopped it from at least NO covering.
Uncharacteristically, Kamara had another fumble that was crucial for NO. The final score was SF 13-0. SF only scored 1td and that was tipped by S Tyrann Mathieu into the hands of WR Jennings in the back of the endzone. SF was lucky that NO made mistakes that gave SF the opportunity to win. But the DEF for SF was the winner here. The SF OFF really didn’t do much.
L5 MIA vs SF, MIA 4-1 SU but 2-3 ATS. ROAD 4-1 ATS. SF 6-13 ATS in 2nd of BB HGs. SF 32-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. SF 33-45 ATS as a FAV in DEC. SF 13-17-1 ATS in 2nd of BB non-div gms. SF 8-1 ATS as a HOME FAV vs .666>non-div opp. MIA 15-6 ATS 1NL in 1st of BB RGs. MIA 25-34 ATS AWAY in DEC. MIA 31-25 ATS as a DOG in DEC. MIA 21-24 ATS L45 in DEC. MIA 15-7 ATS as a DOG 2>pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins. MIA 10-3 ATS as a DOG 7<pts vs opp off BB SUATS wins.
Who has MIA beaten? In wk 2 they came back and beat BALT @BALT. That was impressive. Then, the next week @HOME, they beat BUFF, also impressive. But since then, they lost @CINNCY, @NYJ & vs MINN. Then they beat PITT by 6, @DET by 4, @CHI by 3 vs CLEV & vs HOU. Their last five wins are against teams that aren’t above .500 and are not going to the playoffs. The DEF for SF has certainly stepped up in the last four games but again, who has SF played? They were @LAR, LAC, @ARZ in Mexico and vs NO. These are also not exactly playoff teams. They were beaten badly @HOME vs KC before these four games and it was a wake up call. Now they seem to have an OFF in sync BUT, they really didn’t do too much LW vs NO. If it wasn’t for a tipped ball, SF may only have won 6-0. It was the only td in the game and NO was playing tough DEF.
Right now, SF #1 TOT DEF w/#1 RUSH DEF & #11 PASS DEF. But with MIA you have WRs Waddle & Hill that can get behind anyone. MIA #2 PASS OFF. The O-LINE for MIA is going to be crucial here as they defend against SF and their DEF. If Tua sees the blitz coming, he has to call another play and guys need to block. On the other side, MIA must shut down SF QB Jimmy G and make him make mistakes. This will be a very good game and should come down to the wire. This is another game on the schedule this week that is like a playoff game. By the way, the MIA RB tandem of Raheem Mostert & Jeff Wilson may be pumped up for this game just a little as they were both discarded by SF. A little payback may be in order.
THE PICK: MIA+3 ½
Sunday December 4th, 2022 4:00pm
KC Chiefs (9-2), (5-6) ATS, (4-1) AWAY, (3-2) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-4), (8-3) ATS, (3-1) HOME, (3-1) ATS CINNCY+2 ½
LW, KC was @HOME vs LAR. KC was a HEAVY FAV-15 ½ . I liked LAR because I felt that the DEF for LAR was still good and could make some problems for KC and make the game close. Well, I was right abut that but, the LAR OFF kept giving the ball back to KC. To make long story short, LAR with a 3rd string QB threw 2INTS late while the score was KC 20-10. KC converted both of these gifts to 2fgs and the final score was KC 26-10. KC covered by ½ pt.
If LAR had some kind of OFF, this game would have been a lot closer but, KC didn’t play with any urgency. KC QB Pat Mahomes did however spread the ball around to 10 different receivers which made the LAR guessing who’s next? LW, CINNCY won @TENN, 20-16. I didn’t think they were going to win and I liked TENN in the game. But the CINNCY DEF shut down TENN RB Derrick Henry and stopped TENN from getting more than 1td. The difference in the game was CINNCY scored a td in the 4th qtr to TENN’s only scoring a fg. CINNCY QB Joe Burrow and CO are putting together a nice streak and focusing on one game at a time.
L9 KC vs CINNCY, CINNCY 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS.(not incl playoffs). HOME is 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS. CINNCY 12-8-3 ATS L23 as a HOME DOG. CINNCY 12-6-1 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. CINNCY 47-30 ATS @HOME in DEC. CINNCY 45-38-2 ATS as a DOG in DEC. CINNCY 18-5-2 ATS as a non-div HOME DOG. CINNCY 17-5-1 ATS L23 vs AFC WEST. CINNCY 4-7-1 ATS off BB SU wins. KC 22-19-1 ATS L42 as a ROAD FAV. KC 8-10 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. KC 43-33-1 ATS as a FAV in DEC. KC 34-33-1 ATS AWAY in DEC. KC 11-3 ATS as a ROAD FAV <7pts off BB SU wins. KC 11-3 ATS off DD ATS win vs non-div opp. KC 18-9 ATS as a conf ROAD FAV <7pts. KC 17-5-1 ATS AWAY after BB SU wins. KC 12-4 ATS AWAY w/revenge. KC 12-4 ATS w/revenge. KC 1-9 ATS off non-conf gm vs opp off BB SUATS wins.
CINNCY beat KC convincingly 2x in 2021. CINNCY beat KC in wk 17 @CINNCY 34-31 and then @KC in the AFC Championship game, 27-24 in OT. Is there some revenge in the minds of KC? KC plays one game at a time but CINNCY may have their number. Burrow is cool and probably studying the film on KC all week. The CINNCY DEF has to come up big. In last year’s AFC champ game, CINNCY made the adjustment for the 2nd half by having DE Trey Hendrickson as the spotter vs KC. It worked and he even had 1 ½ sacks in the game. If CINNCY uses that type of DEF they will win again. I’m also sure that CINNCY does not like being a HOME DOG. They are probably feeling disrespected and will be out to prove something. The fans will be fired up. I like CINNCY to win outright here. This will be a battle and a fun game to watch.
THE PICK: CINNCY+2 ½
THE BEST BET OF THE FIVE: WASH-1 ½
Jeff Cadillac can be found at www.jeffcadillac.com where he analyzes every NFL game every week. He can also be found on the Bettor Sports Network app on Friday nights at 7:30pm EST on the “Rick Kamla Show” discussing NFL games. Jeff also appears as a frequent guest on the Dr. Roto show also on the Bettor Sports Network. He is on Twitter @Jeffcadillac1 where he posts his Best Bet of the WEEK every week on Fridays. He also co-hosts a weekly video for Sideline Sports called the “J & J Sports Express” on Wednesday evenings where they discuss NFL games. That video can be seen LIVE & is posted on Twitter and YouTube. He can be emailed at [email protected].
