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(#21) Creighton Bluejays (6-3) will play BYU Cougars (5-5) in Las Vegas on Saturday. Creighton, one of the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament this season, have lost three straight games since starting with a perfect 6-0. After a couple of tough road losses to powerhouses Arizona and Texas, the Bluejays dropped a dud against Nebraska at home 63-53. They shot a grotesque 30% from the field and went 10-of-40 from the deep while getting outscored 46 to 16 in paint points. TCU transfer Francisco Farabello scored a season-high 16 points in the loss. Reigning Big East DPOY Ryan Kalkbrenner and former South Dakota State superstar Baylor Scheierman joined Farabello in scoring double figures. The duo of Ryan Nembhard and Arthur Kaluma, the Big East All-Freshman last season, struggled mightily, going a combined 3-of-21 from the field.
Creighton vs. BYU Betting Odds
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BYU are also in a tailspin, losing home games to South Dakota and Utah Valley over the last seven days. The Cougars were outscored 41-22 in the second half in an eventual 75-60 defeat to UVU on Wednesday. 2021 WCC All-Freshman forward Fousseyni Traore scored 18 points in the loss. Seniors Gideon George and Rudi Williams also scored double-digit points as the trio were amongst the team leaders in points. Spencer Jones is also in the mix for this game, but the guard has missed his team's four games with a knee injury.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
We will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possession
Creighton
Offensive Key Stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjOFF SQ = 1.16 (6th)
Spacing = 97th Percentile (11th)
Rim and 3 SQ PPP = 1.13 (16th)
Shot Selection = 83rd Percentile (52nd)
Shot Making = 81st Percentile (59th)
Open 3 Rate = 14.6% (292nd)
Free Throw Rate (FTR) = 25% (309th)
Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
P&R Ball Screen = 1.08 (8th)
Midrange = 0.90 (12th)
Off-Screen = 1.09 (35th)
Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.06 (66th)
Off the Dribble 3PT = 0.99 (189th)
Transition = 1.29 (200th)
Defensive key stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjDEF SQ = 0.90 (18th)
FTR = 12.7% (1st)
Rim and 3 Rate = 80.8% (10th)
Shot Selection = 8th Percentile (31st)
Shot Making = 25th Percentile (97th)
Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
P&R Ball Screen = 0.94 (81st)
Midrange = 0.76 (115th)
Finishing at the Rim = 1.09 (122nd)
Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.03 (238th)*
Transition = 1.36 (240th)
Cut = 1.20 (291st)
Post-Up = 0.92 (295th)
* = outside top 175 but added for matchup sake.
BYU
Offensive Key Stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjOFF SQ = 1.04 (109th)
Rim and 3 Rate = 91.0% (71st)
Open 3 Rate = 13.0% (314th)
Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Catch & Shoot 3PT = 1.04 (117th)
P&R Ball Screen = 1.00 (123rd)
Transition = 1.30 (198th)
Off the Dribble 3PT = 0.97 (220th)
Post-Up = 0.82 (282nd)
Defensive key stats (inside top 100 or outside top 200)
AdjDEF SQ = 0.95 (68th)
Rim and 3 Rate = 81.9% (19th)
FTR = 40.1% (313th)
Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 175 Frequency)
Midrange = 0.73 (39th)
P&R Ball Screen = 0.92 (46th)
Isolation = 0.84 (54th)
Transition = 1.37 (263rd)
* = outside top 175 but added for matchup sake.
Creighton vs. BYU Prediction
ShotQuality suggests that Creighton had a 48% chance or better to win their last three games. However, they dropped them all, including two nail-biters, to tourney-bound Texas and Arizona. The Bluejays have better SQ numbers on both sides of the court, and BYU are still most likely going to miss Spencer Johnson. Run with Creighton here to get off the schneid in a big way over BYU.
Prediction: Creighton -10.5 (-110)
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