Florida State vs. Wake Forest Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread, and Picks - January 11 | 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Season

The Florida State Seminoles (5-11) will travel to Winston-Salem to take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (11-5) on Wednesday night. Florida State beat Georgia Tech 75-64 last Saturday. However, the final score didn't indicate how much the Seminoles controlled the game, as they led by as many as 20 points late in the second half.

Leading scorer and former ACC 6MOY Matthew Cleveland dropped a 21-point, 12-rebound double-double, while UCF transfer Darin Green Jr. and former Houston standout Caleb Mills finished with a combined 32 points on 12-of-26 from the floor. FSU drilled ten three-pointers and shot 49% from the field overall.

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Florida State vs. Wake Forest

Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Total	Money Line
Florida State Seminoles	+7.5	o150	+275
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	-7.5	u150	-330

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

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Wake Forest bounced back from a close defeat to UNC with a win over Louisville 80-72 last Saturday. Four Demon Deacons finished in double-figures, led by Damai Monsanto's 21 points on five threes and 8-of-10 shooting.

Wake never trailed in this game and even led by as many as 22 points. They look like a real tournament team this season, with wins over Virginia Tech, Duke, and Wisconsin.

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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The Florida State Seminoles own a 1.06 AdjOFF SQ this season, suitable for 84th in the nation. Wake have the 79th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.97. FSU do well to average in all key stats, but in the rim and three rate metric with 67.7% posting (348th in the country). Conversely, the Demon Deacons are 182nd in defensive rim and three rate.

The Seminoles own high-frequency numbers in the midrange, off-the-dribble three-pointer, and half-court shot types. They are in the top 10 in off-the-dribble three-pointers and solid in the half-court, but have posted a 0.70 SQ PPP in the midrange (343rd in the country). Conversely, the Demon Deacons are 82nd in the defensive half-court and average in off-the-dribble three-pointers and midrange.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have a 1.08 AdjOFF SQ, the 62nd-best mark in the country. Florida State have posted a 1.02 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 207th in the country. The Demon Deacons are in the top 80 in all key metrics, with the exception of 124th in free throw rate. The Seminoles are 180th or worse in all key stats.

Wake Forest are in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, finishing at the rim, isolation, off-the-dribble three-pointers, and transition. However, Florida State are in the bottom 175 in defending all those shot types while mainly struggling with defending the perimeter (350th in off-the-dribble three-pointer SQ PPP).

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Florida State Seminoles vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Prediction

I love this Wake team as much as the next guy, but Florida State have been playing some great ball of late. Outside of getting squashed at Duke, they hung tight with Virginia and Purdue while beating Louisville and Georgia Tech. They started the season with an extremely poor November but have answered back with mostly quality games over the last month and a half.

Fortunately, Wake Forest are giving up too many points to an FSU team trending in the right direction with quality talent and coaching.

Prediction: Wake Forest +7.5 (-110)

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