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So far, this season in the NFL has been crazy exciting and wildly unpredictable. Many games have gone done to the wire with teams winning and losing in the final seconds of the game. This has drove fans and gamblers crazy. But, the one trend in past seasons that has been relatively constant has been the FAVORITES & The UNDERDOGS.
Since 2013, neither the FAVS nor the DOGS have been overly dominant in any one season. There have been weeks that the FAV or the DOG had a big week but, by the end of the season it pretty much evened out. Each season has ended with either the DOGS or the FAVS ending the season with an edge by not more than nine wins. That is not too bad considering how many games are played during the season. Every season has its ups and downs, but a lot of teams can be predictable from the middle of the season on. However, there has been one season in the last ten seasons where either the DOGS or the FAVS have been dominant, that was 2019. That year the DOGS finished the season 23 games ahead of the FAVS. This season, including last night’s Thursday Night Football game, the UNDERDOGS are 76-58-3 ATS. DOG are +18. This season is heading up to be just like that season.
Now, there may be some discrepancy to my record here but I always use the Caesars Point Spread in Las Vegas when doing my analysis. I have always used Caesars because it is the most reliable and recognizable in the industry. I also frequently compare Point Spread to Interest Rates. If you shop around, you’ll get a rate that you like.
Anyway, looking at the 2019 season, the DOGS had only two dominant weeks. In week 4, the DOGS were 11-4 ATS. In week 10, the DOGS were 9-3-1 ATS. There were some weeks where both the DOGS and FAVS beat each other by four wins like, 9-5 ATS which happened 4x during the 2019 season. The 4x it happened were by both the DOGS and FAVS 2x. So basically, they cancelled each other out. The DOGS did beat the FAVS in week 13 10-6 ATS but, nothing like what I mentioned previously.
Let’s look at 2022. In nine weeks of football, the DOGS have already had three dominant weeks. In wk 3, the DOGS were 11-5 ATS. In wk 5 the DOGS were 10-5-1 ATS. In wk 9, the DOGS were 9-3-1 ATS. The two best weeks for the FAVS have been week 4, 9-6-1 ATS and week 8, 9-6 ATS. This has all happened and we have a whole ½ season of football to go! If the 1st half of the season is any clue moving forward, the DOGS will be at +30 at the end of the season.
There could be many different reasons why the DOGS are as dominant this season than in past seasons. One reason you could say is that the GOOD teams or the FAVS have not been playing solid football. There have been more sloppy games with turnovers creating more opportunities to score. In 2019, 17 teams had a 0.0- +1.2 turnover ratio for the season. In 2022, 18 teams have a ratio of 0.0- +1.9. But believe it or not, there is nothing really out of the ordinary as compared to the other seasons for the turnover differential.
Another factor that I looked at was 4th qtr points. Teams with lousy SU records have six spots in the top 11 for scoring points in the 4th qtr. This happens because they are usually playing catchup. In 2021, only one team in the top 11, the Baltimore Ravens, had a losing record. Could it be that Defenses are easing up, making it easier to score points? This could be a contributor.
Other factors that we could look at are injuries, strength of schedules, QBs, etc. My point being, after all of this, things tend to even out. You may be saying to yourself, what kind of comparison is this? But if you go back far enough you will find seasons where the FAVS were just as dominant as the DOGS were in 2019 and so far in 2022. No one stat is going to be the unicorn that stands out and gives you that extra edge. Remember who sets the betting line. The Las Vegas Casinos set the betting lines and they are in business to make money, not lose it.
One stat that they are not in control of is trends. Trends come in all shapes and sizes and I for one look for certain trends that sometimes tells me what team, players, HCs, etc have an edge. They can come in team vs team or even a particular coach but, they do occur. These trends eventually swing the other way because players and coaches eventually change teams. You can only ride them so long before it starts to swing the other way.
The DOGS and FAVS are always a factor in trends and you should not exclude them when they appear in your analysis of a particular game. One thing to note, that you should pick up on is that after a dominant week by either the DOGS or the FAVS, the next week is a little closer to the middle. It doesn’t always go towards the middle but it gets a little closer. This has been the trend.
All I can say at this point is that you need to be smart about your picks and don’t waiver over them. A lot of time your gut tells you what the right pick is. I know, I’ve been there too. So far this season, the DOGS have been dominant, but like any other trend that I mentioned, that will end too. Ride it while you can.
I hope that I was able to help you understand the game a little better and not confuse you. Enjoy the games and I will talk to you next week.
You can find me www.jeffcadillac.com, Twitter @jeffcadillac1 and on the Rick Kamla Show on the Bettor Sports Network app on Friday nights at 7:30pm Eastern Standard Time.
