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The #6 Gonzaga Bulldogs (3-0) will square off against the Portland State Vikings (2-2) at the Phil Knight Invitational in Portland, Oregon, on Thursday.
Spirits are high in Portland State after they knocked off Oregon State 79-66 last week. Jorell Saterfield, a transfer from UTEP, dropped 26 points on 47% shooting in the win. Hunter Woods, formerly of Elon, added 19 off the bench.
Six of the Vikings' seven leading scorers, including Saterfield and Woods, are new additions via the transfer portal.
Gonzaga vs. Portland State Betting Odds
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Gonzaga, meanwhile, is fresh off an excellent bounce-back victory against Kentucky 88-72 after being blown out by Texas on the road. Star center Drew Timme had 22 points and seven rebounds in the win. He returns for his fourth season in Spokane.
Fellow backcourt mate Anton Watson dropped a double-double in a near blowout win. Watson joins Timmie and backcourt companions Rasir Bolton and Julian Strawther as the key returners from last season's 28-win team.
This year's new faces for the Bulldogs are former Chattanooga star Malachi Smith and LSU transfer Efton Reid.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
The ShotQuality data paints an ugly picture of the Portland State defense.
The Vikings' key stat page bleeds red as they are one of the worst defensive units in the country. They are 310th or worse amongst all the teams in the following: shot-making (100th percentile), free throw rate (72.9%), adjDEF SQ (1.09), and rim & three rate (91%).
Meanwhile, Gonzaga is in the 94th percentile in shot-making and has a 34.9% FTR percentage.
The saving grace of the Vikings' defense is that they defend the Zags' most frequent shot types better than the rest. The Bulldogs like to run in transition, but use a lot of pick & roll ball screens and post-ups in the halfcourt.
The Vikings are middling with defending those shot types. Likewise, they struggle mightily with defending the three, something the Zags have yet to dominate this season.
The Portland State offense has been light years better than their defense, posting a quality 1.06 adjOFF SQ number this season. They are in the 55th percentile in shot-making, but the Zags are best in forcing misses from their opponents.
From a frequency standpoint, the Vikings are a mixed bag but love isolation sets. They have a 7% frequency with isolation and are second in the country in SQ PPP with a 1.17 in that shot type. Unfortunately for the Vikings, the Zags are one of the best among the qualifiers in defending on an island.
Where Gonzaga struggles, Portland State struggles, giving the ladder no real matchup advantage in this game.
Gonzaga vs. Portland State Prediction
The Bulldogs' defense matches great with what Portland State is trying to do on offense. Meanwhile, although the Vikings have a slight matchup advantage on defense. As per the numbers, one team oozes elite talent, and the other doesn't.
The spread is significant for a reason, yet it shouldn't scare you off in this neutral-court game.
Prediction: Gonzaga -28.5 (-110)
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