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The (#2) Gonzaga Bulldogs (2-0) will take on the (#11) Texas Longhorns (2-0) in Austin on Wednesday. The matchup is the second this season featuring two top-15 teams. Gonzaga edged out Michigan State 64-63 while on the USS Abraham Lincoln last week to keep themselves among college basketball's unbeaten. Star Drew Timme had 22 points and 13 rebounds as the Bulldogs powered back from a double-digit second-half deficit. Gonzaga's Julian Strather had 13 points and nine boards, but was called for a traveling with 31 seconds left to set up Michigan State for a potential game-winner. However, the Bulldogs' defense came through in the clutch, forcing an off-center and desperate three-point attempt at the buzzer.
Texas bludgeoned UTEP and Houston Baptist to start the season. Tyrese Hunter, a star as a freshman for Iowa State last season, leads the team in scoring with 14 points per game. Sir'Jabari Rice, a fifth-year senior who transferred from New Mexico State, and Marcus Carr also sit in double figures.
Gonzaga vs. Texas Betting Odds
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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Per 2021-22 ShotQuality data, the Texas Longhorn boasted a 1.12 AdjOFF SQ number. They excelled in shot-making and free throw rate while having a poor rim and three-rate. They were fourth in the country in cut frequency last season while posting a healthy 1.23 SQ PPP in that category. They also ran several isolation sets, but were 291st in SQ PPP at 0.84. Many of those shots came midrange, where their 0.77 SQ PPP matches their iso struggles. The Longhorns' best shot types were cutting, transitioning, and finishing at the rim. These are also Gonzaga's best defensive shot types.
Gonzaga had the fifth-best offensive Adjusted SQ at 1.15 last season. They were in the 100th percentile in shot making and rim & three SQ PPP. They were one of the country's most efficient and effective teams in pick & roll shots, but that shouldn't be a surprise, given that they deployed Drew Timme. They also posted a league-best 1.25 SQ PPP when finishing at the rim. Texas may be flush with bucket-getters, but they took on the identity of their head coach Chris Beard last season, being a gritty and tough unit when on defense. They were 11th in AdjDEF SQ and one of the best in defensive shot selection. The Longhorns were also fantastic in the P&R screen game last season.
Gonzaga vs. Texas Prediction
Anytime bettors can take Gonzaga with the points, it's a good idea. KenPom has the two teams neck and neck, holding the second and third spots in adjusted efficiency margin, respectively. With the Bulldogs a full-possession underdog going into this tilt, grab them with the points.
Prediction: Gonzaga +3 (-120)
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