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The Oregon Ducks (2-1) will play host to the (#3) Houston Cougars (4-0) in a primetime matchup on Sunday night.
Houston has been untouchable during the first few weeks of the season, winning by an average of 36.5 points against all mid-major schools. The Cougars made a Sweet Sixteen run last season despite losing the backcourt duo of Marcus Sasser and Tremon Mark with season-ending injuries. The duo have returned to full strength this season, with Sasser leading the team with 16.8 points per game and Mark sitting at 11.8 PPG on 48% shooting.
Jamal Shead, a junior guard who stepped up last season, leads the team with 6.5 assists per game. The Cougars also added two ESPN top 100 recruits to the mix. Jarace Walker and Terrance Arceneaux, both Texas natives, have dominated to start their collegiate careers.
Houston vs. Oregon Betting Odds
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Oregon got back in the win column against Montana State on Tuesday after being tripped up by UC Irvine last week. The loss to Irvine was an ugly one. They were favored by 15 points and lost by 13 in a game they trailed throughout. The Ducks, however, took their frustration out on Montana State, winning 81-51 while shooting 53% from the field. Freshman phenom Kel'el Ware led the way with 16 points and seven rebounds. Four-year starter Will Richardson put up a quality stat line, scoring 12 points with three rebounds and six assists.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
The 2021-22 ShotQuality data suggests that the Oregon Ducks were a high-quality unit on the offensive end. They had an adjOFF SQ of 1.07, the 50th-best mark in the NCAA. The Ducks were brilliant in spacing and rim & three rate while being in the middle of the pack in all other key offensive metrics. From a frequency standard, the Oregon offense used a heavy dose of isolation (8%) and interior shots (44%) last season.
The Houston defense, 22nd in the country in adjDEF SQ in the previous season, stymied opponents in those shot-type metrics. The Cougars dominated all defensive shot types per SQ PPP except on the perimeter, where the Ducks struggled last season.
The Houston offense was elite last year. They had the second-best adjOFF SQ number at 1.15, placed in the 89th percentile in spacing, and had a comedic open three rate of 27.7%. Conversely, Oregon's two worst defensive metrics last season were spacing and open three rate. The Cougars were elite near the basket, and regression stats suggest they should have been 4% better at finishing near the rim than they were. Meanwhile, the Ducks did an above-average job defending their opponent's half-court offense but were shredded in transition, a strength of 2021-22 Cougs.
Houston vs. Oregon Prediction
The spread and data have this game right around two possessions, with the Cougars having the edge. The Ducks may be without N'Faly Dante, who is dealing with a hip issue. Even if he does go, his ability may be limited. He is averaging 14.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game.
Meanwhile, the Cougars have steamrolled everyone and have a clean bill of health heading into this star-studded matchup. Laying 6.5 points is a lot, but it's hard to go against the Cougs at this point of the season.
Prediction: Houston -6.5 (-110)
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