North Carolina vs. Syracuse Prediction, Odds, Line, Spread, and Picks - January 24 | 2022-23 NCAA Basketball Season

NC State v North Carolina
NC State v North Carolina - G RJ Davis

The North Carolina Tar Heels (14-6) will take on the Syracuse Orange (13-7) on Tuesday. UNC, a favorite to cut down the nets in March, has struggled to live up to expectations this season but have won five of their last six and sit fourth in the conference standings. However, Syracuse has also been on a heater, winning five of their last seven, with the two losses coming by a combined 11 points.

North Carolina vs. Syracuse

Betting Odds

TeamSpreadTotalMoney Line
North Carolina Tar Heels-4.5o148.5-200
Syracuse Orange+4.5u148.5+165

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook

North Carolina vs. Syracuse Match Details

Fixture: North Carolina Tar Heels at Syracuse Orange

Date and Time: Tuesday, January 24 at 9:00 PM ET

Venue: JMA Wireless Dome

ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The North Carolina Tar Heels own a 1.14 AdjOFF SQ this season, suitable for 22nd in the nation. Syracuse has the 158th-best AdjDEF SQ at 1.00. UNC excels in shot selection (73rd percentile) and the free throw rate metric (41.7% FTR). Conversely, the Orange are in the 18th percentile in defensive shot selection and 23rd in defensive FTR.

The Tar Heels have high-frequency numbers in off-the-dribble three-point, midrange, P&R ball screen, post-up, and transition shot types. However, they are outside the top 175 in all those shot types. Conversely, the Orange are in the top 50 on defending in transition and the P&R but are one spot off the worst team in the country on defending in the post.

The Orange have a 1.08 AdjOFF SQ, the 65th-best mark in the country. UNC has posted a 0.97 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 75th in the country. The Orange are in the top 60 on shot-making and rim & three SQ PPP. The Tar Heels are in the 90th percentile in defensive shot-making and 19th in defensive rim & three SQ PPP. However, they are excellent in defensive FTR and shot selection, which are weaknesses of Syracuse.

Syracuse is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: cut, isolation, midrange, off-screen, and transition. However, UNC is outside the top 270 on defending all those shot types.

North Carolina vs. Syracuse Prediction

Both Syracuse and UNC are considered fast-paced via the KenPom adjusted tempo metric. UNC is in the 73rd percentile on shot selection but has struggled in shot-making and spacing. Thankfully for them, Syracuse has been brutal in defensive shot-making and is one spot off from being the worst team in the country in defensive spacing. However, Syracuse is excellent in shot-making and transition, while UNC is in the bottom 75 in those two essential categories.

Prediction: Over 148.5 (-110)

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Edited by Gaelin Leif