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The Oregon Ducks (2-3) will face the (#12) Michigan State Spartans (3-2) after the two teams lost in the opening round of the Phil Knight Invitational. Oregon got blown out by UConn 83-59. They were without starter Keeshawn Barthelemy as the Ducks turned it over 16 times and, at one point, trailed by 30 points. Freshman phenom Kel'el Ware had 18 points and nine rebounds, leading the Ducks in both categories. Nate Bittle got the start at center for the third time this season and was held scoreless for 23 minutes. The starting backcourt of veterans Will Richardson and Rivaldo Soares combined to go 5-of-19 from the field in the loss.
Oregon vs. Michigan State Betting Odds
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Michigan State, who faced their third-ranked opponent in the last two weeks, faired much better than Oregon, but fell short to Alabama 81-70. Guard Tyson Walker, who made his way to East Lansing last season after transferring from Northeastern, led the team with 21 points in 37 minutes. However, fellow senior Joey Hauser fell short of his season average in the scoring department, dropping only nine points on 16% from the field. "Sparty" hung well with Alabama, but didn't capitalize off turnovers as the Tide did. As a result, they were outscored 18-7 on points off turnovers.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
The Ducks play in a pseudo-home game, with the tournament happening in Portland, Oregon. ShotQuality has this game within one possession, with both teams crossing 70 points. The Ducks have a 1.05 adjOFF SQ, which is good for 81st in the country. They are in the 17th percentile in shot-making, but in the 79th percentile in shot-selection. They also have a top 40 free throw rate (FTR) at 42.1%. The Sparty defense is 346th in defensive shot-making, giving the Ducks hope of taking the lid off the basket.
The Ducks live on the half-court, backed by a 96% frequency percentage. As a result, the Ducks shot many threes and set up in the low post while finding cutters to the basket. Michigan State's defense is better in transition, but still does a decent job on the half-court. They defend the cutters well, but have yet to see much of that from their opponents.
Meanwhile, the Michigan State offense has sputtered a bit due to being in the 13th percentile in shot selection. They also struggle to post a quality rim & three SQ rate and PPP, most likely contributing to their 0.99 adjOFF SQ. OU's defensive strength happens to be MSU's weakness, while the opposite is also true. The Ducks have struggled in spacing while the Spartans thrive.
MSU likes to get out running in transition, but also has high-frequency numbers in the mid-range and post-up. They are the best when shooting the three, but have yet to let it fly from deep. Oregon is great in the half-court. "Sparty" will look to run in transition to avoid their opponent's shot-type strength.
Oregon vs. Michigan State Prediction
If MSU can run and Oregon gets shot-making correction, this game should fly over the total.
Prediction: Over 133.5 (-110)
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