Alabama vs. Michigan State Basketball Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: November 24

The #18 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) and the #12 Michigan State Spartans (3-1) will clash in the PK85 invitational in Oregon on Turkey Day. Alabama is yet to leave its home state, sweeping the non-conference schedule, most recently overpowering Jacksonville State 104-62.

Coach Nate Oats dominated the recruiting trail this offseason, landing four of ESPN's top 100 prospects in the class of 2022. Brandon Miller, the white whale of the quartet, is averaging 20.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game. Fellow freshman Rylan Griffin also sits in double-figures at 10.3 points per game. The only upperclassman in the starting five is junior Mark Sears. Sears made his way from Ohio University via the transfer portal and was part of the All-MAC team last season.

Alabama vs. Michigan State Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Alabama Crimson Tide	-4	0145.5	-182
Michigan State Spartans	+4	u145.5	+150

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While Alabama has faced only mid-majors up until today, Michigan State has been battle-tested after the season's first two weeks. They lost a nail bitter to Gonzaga on an aircraft carrier, beat Kentucky on a neutral court, and edged out Villanova at home 73-71.

Also, unlike the Crimson Tide, the Spartans are loaded with upper-level students. Seniors Joey Hauser and Tyson Walker lead the team in scoring at 14 and 13.5 points per game. However, junior Malik Hall has made huge strides this season with production but will miss multiple weeks after leaving early with an injury during the last game.

ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

ShotQuality data has this matchup as a high-scoring affair yet a wire-to-wire contest. Michigan State is truly middle-of-the-pack in all key stat metrics on offense. Outside of a lowly 80.4% rim & three rate and being in the 25th percentile in shot selection, Sparty is between 100-200 in the country in spacing, shot making, and open three rate. From a tendency standpoint, when the Spartans aren't running in transition, they abuse the post and mid-range shots.

The Alabama defense is exceptional in some metrics while mediocre in others. They are first in the county in defending shot selection, rim & three SQ PPP, shots at the rim, and transition. However, they have struggled to defend the perimeter this year, and the Spartans have done a decent job at splashing deep shots.

Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide offense has posted a 1.16 adjOFF SQ this season, good for fourth in the country. Their key stat metrics resemble that of a booming economy as it flashes only green colors. They own a 95.3% rim & three rate, the seventh-best mark in the country. The Tide are also in the 71st percentile in shot-making, while the Spartans are awful in that department defensively. Alabama loves to run in transition and find open shooters along the way. Michigan State has done an excellent job defending opponents in transition but has struggled with allowing shooters to get open.

Alabama vs. Michigan State Prediction

Tendencies suggest both these teams will want to get out on a run. Meanwhile, neither team defends the perimeter well in a game where both teams can get hot from downtown. This matchup has all the markings of a late-night shootout where the first to 70 should come out victorious.