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The (#17) San Diego State Aztecs (4-2) will host the UC-Irvine Anteaters (6-1) on Tuesday (November 29) night in the NCAAB.
Irvine blew past New Mexico State in the Las Vegas Classic on Saturday. Leading scorer DJ Davis dropped 25 points on 5-of-7 from the deep as the Anteaters went into half-time with a 48-30 lead.
Dawson Baker, who sits in double-digit scoring for the third consecutive season, added 19 points of his own. The Anteaters shot 58% from the deep, raising their season average to 42%.
Irvine has won their last three games by a combined 106 points. Their most significant victory (69-56) came against the Oregon Ducks on the road.
UC-Irvine vs San Diego State Betting Odds
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Meanwhile, San Diego State most recently lost a back-and-forth to the Arkansas Razorbacks in OT 78-74 to finish fourth in the Maui Invitational. SDSU led 70-69 in the extra frame before surrendering the lead on the subsequent possession.
Aztec star Matt Bradley, a transfer from Cal in 2021, missed a potential game-tying layup in the final seconds of the contest. He ended with 23 points and seven rebounds.
His fellow backcourt mate and Seattle U transfer Darrion Trammell added 13 points on 39%. Senior Keshad Johnson was the only other Aztec in double figures.
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we'll highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions
UC-Irvine
Offensive Key Stats
AdjOFF SQ = 1.05 (69th)
Open Three Rate = 45.9% (29th)
Shot Selection = 54th Percentile (149th)
Spacing = 33rd (232nd)
Rim & Three Rate = 81.3% (318th)
Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 150 Frequency)
Isolation = 1.07 (8th)
Off the Dribble Three-Pointer = 1.04 (72nd)
Half Court = 1.01 (84th)
Finishing at the Rim = 1.11 (173rd)
Defensive key stats
AdjDEF SQ = 0.99 (138th)
Spacing = 28th Percentile (111th)
Rim & Three SQ PPP = 1.03 (112th)
Open Three Rate = 44.7% (325th)
Free Throw Rate = 44.2% (334th)
Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 150 Frequency)
Finishing at the Rim = 1.04 (84th)
Half Court = 0.99 (189th)
Off the Dribble Three-Pointer = 1.06 (335th)
Isolation = 1.03 (339th)
San Diego State
Offensive Key Stats
AdjOFF SQ = 1.05 (80th)
FTR = 41% (35th)
Rim & Three SQ PPP = 1.1 (59th)
Rim & Three Rate= 76.6% (355th)
Offensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 150 Frequency)
Off the Dribble Three-Pointer = 1.05 (56th)
Post-Up = 0.92 (112th)
Midrange = 0.75 (232nd)
Off-Screen = 0.99 (200th)
P&R Ball Screen = 0.94 (252nd)
Defensive key stats
adjDEF SQ = 0.97 (108th)
Open 3 Rate = 13.6% (84th)
Rim and 3 Rate = 84.5% (81st)
FTR = 35.6% (254th)
Shot Selection = 65th Percentile (257th)
Defensive Shot Type: SQ PPP (Strengths & Weaknesses w/top 150 Frequency)
Transition = 1.19 (87th)
Off the Dribble Three-Pointer = 1.01 (253rd)
P&R Ball Screen = 1.02 (255th)
Half Court = 1.02 (265th)
Midrange = 0.83 (303rd)
UC-Irvine vs San Diego State Prediction
On paper, the San Diego State matchup is a wash against UC Irvine. They get to the charity stripe a lot, while their opponents are more than generous in committing shooting fouls.
They do like to get out in transition on offense, and the Anteaters struggle with that shot type, albeit seldom seeing it. However, SDSU's half-court strengths also represent what UCI does well.
On the flip side, Irvine kills it in the half-court, while San Diego State has been abysmal, especially against the three. Now don't expect the Anteaters to get out and run against a transition defense that has put the clamps on the opposing offense.
Neither team has a clear edge in the numbers, yet they play at a slower tempo, suggesting the under is the play.
Prediction: Under 137.5 (-110)
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