UC San Diego vs. UCSB Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 31

UCSB Gauchos (10-2) will host UC San Diego Tritons (6-7) on Saturday night. UC San Diego are in their third season of DI play, competing in the Big West under head coach Eric Olen. Guard Bryce Pope is one of the premier scorers in the conference, averaging 19.2 points per game on 43% from the field. On Thursday, he scored 25 points in their upset win at Long Beach State. Freshman Roddie Anderson, UC-Irvine transfer Emmanuel Tshimanga, sophomore Francis Nwaokorie, and center Justin DeGraaf joined Pope in double-digits.

UC San Diego vs. UCSB Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
UC San Diego Tritons	+12.5	0131.5	+590
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos	-12.5	u131.5	-900

All Lines Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

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UC Santa Barbara have won six in a row, and a win over UC San Diego would secure an undefeated December. They also took down Cal State Fullerton 66-58 on Thursday night. 2021-22 All-Big West leading scorer Ajay Mitchell dropped 24 points, and senior guard Josh Pierre-Louis added 17 points on 55% from the field. Former Oregon Duck and 2018 top recruit Miles Norris struggled, finishing with four points on 2-of-7 shooting, but still averaged an excellent 12.7 points per game in the young season.

ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

We will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The UC San Diego Tritons own a 0.94 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 308th in the nation. UC Santa Barbara have the 121st-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.98. UC San Diego crop up awful (bottom 50) in all key stats, but in shot-making, where they are in the 56th percentile. Conversely, the Gauchos are in the 63rd percentile in defensive shot-making.

The Tritons own high-frequency numbers in half-court, isolation, and finishing-at-the-rim shot types. However, they are in the bottom 40 of all those shot types except isolation, with a 0.88 SQ PPP (253rd in the country). The Gauchos are 114th in defending in the half-court and between 167-173 in stopping isolation and shots near the rim.

The UCSB Gauchos have a 1.03 AdjOFF SQ, the 136th-best mark in the country. UCSD have posted a 0.98 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 108th in the country. The Gauchos are in the top 50 in shot selection, rim & three SQ PPP, and free throw rate. The Tritons are in the top 10 in defensive shot selection and rim & three SQ PPP, but 161st in defensive free throw rate.

UCSB are in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: transition, P&R ball screen, off-screen, cut, isolation, finishing at the rim, midrange, and post-up. The Gauchos are in the top 50 in transition, P&R, and post-up. On the other hand, UCSD are among the bottom ten teams in the country in defending in transition and the post-up but 99th in stopping the pick & roll (0.94 SQ PPP).

UC San Diego vs. UCSB Prediction

UCSB are on a mission to win the Big West and punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons. They should school a UCSD team that matches up poorly on the defensive end and need more length to compete with the Guachos down low. Take the first-half spread and expect Santa Barbara to come out hot and establish a substantial lead early.