UNLV vs. Southern Mississippi Prediction, Odds, Line, Pick, and Preview: December 22

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles (11-1) will visit the UNLV Rebels (10-1) on Thursday night.

In their last game, Southern Miss blew the doors off McNeese State 86-67. Leading scorer and Mercer transfer Felipe Haase has a team-high 19 points and two blocks in 38 minutes. Four other Golden Eagles scored in double-figures, with DeAndre Pinckney one rebound shy of an 18-point double-double.

Ole Miss transfer Austin Crowley stuffed the stat sheet with 14 points, seven rebounds, four assists, and two steals. The Golden Eagles finished 14-of-32 from deep in the win.

UNLV vs. Southern Mississippi Betting Odds

Team	Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles	+8.5	0145.5	+300
UNLV Runnin' Rebels	-8.5	u145.5	-360

All Lines Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

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UNLV suffered its first loss to San Francisco last Saturday, 75-73. Oklahoma transfer and leading scorer Elijah Harkless led the Rebels with 21 points, five assists, and two steals.

Ole Miss transfer Luis Rodriguez added 17 points and seven rebounds in the loss. San Francisco scored the final 11 points of the game to edge out UNLV in the game's last minutes.

ShotQuality Tale of the Tape

Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player's average ShotQuality points per possession.

Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles own a 1.03 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 132nd in the nation. UNLV has the eighth-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.89. Southern Miss does average or poor in all key stats, but shot-making is where they are in the 72nd percentile. Conversely, the Rebels are in the 48th percentile in defensive shot-making.

The Golden Eagles own high-frequency numbers in post-up and half-court shot types. In addition, they are the best team in the country in post-up SQ PPP. Conversely, the Rebels are seventh in defending the post-up per SQ PPP.

The ULV Rebels have a 1.06 AdjOFF SQ, the 75th-best mark in the country. Southern Miss has posted a 0.94 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 49th in the country. The Rebels are in the top 60 in shot selection and free throw rate. The Golden Eagles are just outside the top 100 in free throw rate while excelling at defensive shot selection (2nd percentile).

UNLV is in the country's top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, finishing at the rim, isolation, off-the-dribble three-pointers, and transition. Southern Miss is in the top 10 in defending all those shot types except catch & shoot three-pointers, where they own a 1.06 SQ PPP (342nd in the country), isolation, where they own a 0.89 SQ PPP (112th), and off-the-dribble three-pointers, where they own a 1.01 SQ PPP (254th).

UNLV vs. Southern Mississippi Prediction

It's no secret that Southern Miss wants to set up in the post and let their big men go to work. However, UNLV is extremely tough against opposing players in the post, which does not bode well for the Golden Eagles.

The Rebels' offense may also struggle, especially in transition. They are third in transition frequency, while Southern Miss is third in defending that shot type. The defenses should set the tempo and pace in this game, which has all the markings of a low-scoring affair.