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The USC Trojans (1-1) will play host to the Vermont Catamounts (1-2) on Tuesday night. Vermont has lost back-to-back road games, most recently dropping a double overtime game at Cal State Fullerton 94-85. Dylan Penn, a transfer from Bellarmine, finished with a team-high 27 points and four assists. Upperclassman Robin Duncan added eight points and seven rebounds. Although the Catamounts are under .500, they will look to make the NCAA Tournament for the third time in the last five seasons under coach John Becker.
After an embarrassing 74-61 home opening loss to Florida Gulf Coast, the Trojans spanked the Alabama State Hornets 96-58. Five Trojans scored in double-figures, led by Drew Peterson with 21 points. The Trojans splashed 11-of-23 from downtown, with guard Reese Dixon-Waters shooting 75% from beyond the arc.
USC vs. Vermont Betting Odds
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ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Per ShotQuality data, these squads are well-rounded teams under their respective coaches. USC posted a 1.08 AdjOFF SQ number last season, good for 39th in the country. Although they were only in the 10th percentile in shot making (324th in the country), they were elite in open three rate, rim and three SQ PPP, and shot selection. Andy Enfield, who has been the bench boss at USC since 2013, has always relied on getting length and size in his rotation. His recruiting power was fully displayed last season, ranking in the top 85 in the country in frequency and SQ PPP in finishing at the rim, post-up, and transition. ShotQuality key stats are eye-opening when comparing the USC offense to the Vermont defense. Everything the Trojans do well on offense, the Catamounts do well on defense, and vice versa.
The same cannot be said about the Vermont offense against the USC defense. The Catamounts were in the middle of the pack in AdjOFF SQ thanks to everything but free throw rate and open three percentage. They excelled in spacing and shot-making, two metrics the Trojans floundered with last season. Although the Catamounts won the American East last season, they suffered from a low SQ PPP in cuts to the hoop despite a high-frequency rate. Their opponent on Tuesday was one of the best in the country in limiting SQ PPP off of cuts to the basket.
USC vs. Vermont Prediction
Vermont is in the middle of a six-game road trip that takes up most of November. Their tilt against USC on Tuesday will be their third game against a California school in the last six days. But if anyone has their team ready to go regardless of the circumstances, it will be an elite coach like John Becker. They match up exceptionally well against the Trojans on defense and should give the Trojans a battle for 40 minutes. Meanwhile, the Trojans rank 49th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Buckets should take work for both teams tonight in a slower-than-usual (Neither team is in KenPom's top 180 for adjusted tempo ranking) paced game.
Prediction: Under 138.5 (-110)
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