What Is Sports Betting Expected Value?
Expected Value in sports betting is seen as the way in which bettors calculate the probability gap between their expectation odds and what the sportsbooks have presented. There are a lot of scenarios in sports betting in which bettors come to the conclusion that sportsbooks’ lines do not accurately reflect the probability of events in a given game. Bettors could therefore take advantage of the situation and assign expected value to the wager, giving them the opportunity to make more profits. Expected Value betting is therefore the strategy of scanning for undervalued and profitable odds on sportsbooks and wagering on the outcome having more chance of happening.
Sportsbooks in the United States assign their probability in betting lines which is available in all betting types including point spread, money and totals. Although it can be switched in some sportsbooks, legal online sport betting platforms in the country exclusively use the American odd format which assigns negative figures to the favorite and positive figures to the underdog. Therefore, an increase in the line figure signifies a decrease in the probability of winning while a line figure decrease communicates an increase in winning probability. Practically, a +125 underdog is more likely to win than a +200 while a favorite with -180 holds a better chance of winning than a -110 favorite.
Betting lines can be converted into implied probability by bettors. Implied probability is simply the conversion of betting odds available on sportsbooks into percentages which gives a much clearer picture of the chances. A sportsbook could assign "Team A" a line of +120 in a matchup against "Team B"; this translates to a winning probability of 45.5%. A bettor who believes that the chances of "Team A" has been undervalued by the sportsbook and obviously possess a greater chance to win than 45.5% would assign a positive expected value (+EV) to the wager. A bettor who on the under hand perceives that Team A has a lower chance of winning than 45.5% would assign a negative (-EV).
Importance of Expected Value to Sports Bettors
One of the advantages of expected value to bettors is that it presents them a rare opportunity of having a slight edge over sportsbooks. Finding a positive expected value puts a bettor ahead of the curve, it creates some added opportunities which aren't available to other bettors. It helps bettors in adequately weighing profitable bets to their own favor in a bid to win in the long run.
It's pretty impossible in sports betting to keep winning for a long term by just picking the potential winner in matchups. Sportsbooks by default have a wide edge over bettors, they are very much on the upper side in every wager made. They have long term data on several sporting events statically assessed which helps them detect the most accurate lines.
Cost of Vig
Also known as the vigorish, the vig is the amount charged by sportsbooks on every bet taken. It is the percentage cut on betting lines that is held by sportsbooks. This technically means bettors actively pay an additional levy on every wagered bet whether it ends in a win or lose. Historically, 5-8% of wagered funds are held by sportsbooks.
This is one good reason professional bettors adopt expected value betting. They pretty much don't look for the best team that has a very high chance of winning which could demand large stakes to win anything meaningful. They just shop across the fixtures on sportsbooks and find games in which there's a big disparity between their views and what the books have communicated with the odds.
To be ahead of the curve in sports betting, bettors need to look for smart bets. Being pragmatic, expected value by any means isn't an assurance of winning in the long term, but not giving it a thought obviously leads to betting failure and unexpected bankroll collapse.
How to Calculate Expected Value
There is absolutely no dependable way in which bettors can precisely filter bets with positive expected value. Else, sportsbooks across the globe would have gone bankrupt one after the other. Bettors have different ways of scouting for bets in which sportsbooks have undervalued. Some bettors rely on their neural calculation while others use the events around a matchup such as injuries, weather, etc to decide.
Scouting the fixtures with the best positive expected value is by no means an easy task. Sportsbooks are empowered with tons of experience and enormous capital resources in creating the most accurate lines. This is a level of accuracy beyond the capacity of an average individual. In essence, it pretty much lies on an informed guess made through experiences or factual perception for most bettors.
Tips on Positive Expected Value
Scan Very Early: An almost certain occurrence in sports betting is the lines moving as the game nears. So, the best time for sports bettors to find value bets is in their early appearance on sportsbooks. In many cases, value bets are not available for so long before the market catches up with it. It is therefore crucial for bettors who hope to take advantage of positive expected value bets to shop early.
Shop All Over
Scanning around different markets is certainly the best way to find available positive expected value bets on sportsbooks. Bettors are most likely going to get the best value bets in the most unexpected place. It is therefore crucial to go all around different markets to locate the right bets. Also, shopping around different sportsbooks can be a good way to find more positive expected value bets. Odds differ from one sportsbook to the other, which therefore offers the biggest chance of finding positive expected value bets than any other means.
Ignore Your Favorite Team
One of the smartest things to do while looking for positive expected value bets is ignoring personal favorite teams. There's obviously a level of bias that comes alongside it which eliminates the accuracy in a bettor's calculation. When betting on positively expected value, a bettor prolly has to ignore his emotional attachment and be pretty much realistic. Betting of one's favorite team can be intriguing, but doesn't apply to the fundamentals of value bets.
Avoid the Crowd's Favorite
A good number of times, certain teams receive tremendous attention from the fans and media which often present them as favorites during matchups. Teams like this are certainly not a good pick for positive expected value bets as their odds might not be worth it most of the time. Therefore, bettors have to avoid these teams while scouting positive expected value bets. It's not a positive expected value bet in the first if it is obvious to everyone.
Avoid Favorite League
Favorite leagues across the world get the best attention from sportsbooks. They pretty much record the most bets and have the biggest market available on the books. This ensures a great level of efficiency in the lines beyond all other markets. They move almost in time to adequately reflect the situation of things. This makes it very difficult to find value bets on in fans favorite league and the oddsmakers are closely keeping tabs on it as much as the fans.
