El Clasico – Tactical Preview

52 La Primera Ligas, 43 Copa Del Reys and 13 UEFA Champions Leagues between them, 20 players from the current FIFA Team of the Year, the two best managers in football, the two most richest football clubs in the world according to Deloitte and a TV audience of almost 1 billion when they go head to head. That is, in a nutshell, the significance of El Gran Clasico on the footballing landscape.

What Now?!

Four years since Barcelona gave the pasilo (Guard of Honor) to Real Madrid, three years since Real Madrid last won against Barcelona at either the Santiago Bernabeu or the Camp Nou; three years in which Real Madrid lost 2-6 and suffered a manita (a 5-0 loss) at their home ground and three years since Real Madrid last won La Primera Liga. And we’re now in 2011; Real Madrid riding a winning streak of 15 matches – second to only Barcelona’s 16 – in the record books, leading the table for the first time and “welcoming” their arch nemesis to the Santiago Bernabeu. It has been a frustrating three years for most madridistas who want this Barcelona hegemony to end. Now.

Current league form dictates that Real Madrid have an edge going into this match. But I’m going to try and put a dampener on your hopes in this article since I’m feeling way too pessimistic. The last time we lost 5-0 at the Santiago Bernabeu, was incidentally also the same time when we were riding a winning streak and were unbeaten in the league; not to mention the fact that Barcelona have scored 9 goals in their last three matches and conceded none. The question begs answering: How do you plan to stop a team that is nigh on invincible, against whom almost every game plan of yours has failed so far (though a combination of luck and unsavory tricks helped the rivals on more than 1 occasion) and about whom one cannot predict a definite starting 11…or even a proper footballing formation for that matter?

That task has fallen to me, to try and look for a way that Real can trump Barcelona at least this time. Thankfully, this task of figuring out a definitive game plan is only on paper, so all you readers can rest easy and be comfortable with the thought that it is Mourinho who’s calling the shots in the actual game and not some upstart bugger…er…blogger.

The Season so Far

Head to Head

Recent Form

The Barcelona Starting XI Conundrum

The prime reason as to why I’m so insanely pessimistic coming into this game is the lack of consistency when it comes to the Barcelona starting XI. Barcelona hasn’t played the same starting XI in consequent matches since October. The players themselves don’t know who is going to start until the day of the match, another measure of how much importance Guardiola gives to his starting XI and how close he plays it to his chest.

It’s not only about the starting XI either. Guardiola’s side has played in different formations over the course of the current season, which is a first, given the typical possession oriented 4-3-3 formation which Guardiola usually prefers.

This season, Guardiola has experimented with broadly four different formations viz.

• The usual 4-3-3 with strong reliance on building from the back, using Alves’ pace and trickery as the proverbial “extra man” up in attack, with Messi wreaking havoc down the center as a false nine
• The 3-4-3 in possession which becomes a 4-3-3 while in defence, utilizing the positional sense of Sergio Busquets / Mascherano to slot between the two center backs while in defence while Alves remains as a roving, advanced wing back
• The 3-5-2, leveraging the skills of an extra attacking, scoring midfielder in Cesc Fabregas who makes the final overlapping run into open space
• The 3-4-3 with only three center backs who are actually defensive minded midfielders playing as center backs with emphasis on building from the back and attacking (and with supreme arrogance towards the defensive aspects)

So, which formation does Guardiola use for the upcoming Clasico? Your guess is as good as mine, though I am inclined to believe that Guardiola will play this safe. He knows that we have ceased to be the push overs we were a couple of seasons ago and given the pace at which we counter attack (which to point out has been surprisingly rusty in recent matches), Guardiola would probably field the tried and tested 4-3-3. But that is me thinking that Guardiola will play safe. If he’s as intelligent a manager as he’s proclaimed to be, I think he will have the cojones to put out a 3-4-3 which becomes a 4-3-3 against us, or simply a 3-5-2.

Tackling the Inevitable

So how does Mourinho counter so many variables? To start with, there’s going to be absolutely no man marking in the match. When the starting XI of the opposition is so volatile that no one can predict it correctly for two consecutive matches, you cannot plan for multiple eventualities when it comes to man marking. Anyway, given the way we play, Mourinho would never consider man marking in the first place, except possibly for Messi. Our side has a strong emphasis on zonal marking. The players have been drilled to patrol their zones with diligence and discipline and I expect that is not going to change.

Based on the importance of the match, we can also predict quite few starters for Barcelona, viz. Messi, Xavi, Iniesta, Puyol, Pique, Alves & Valdes. The other positions are really up for grabs. This is where things get more interesting. Does Guardiola gamble on the explosive form that Cesc is in and the fact that with Cesc in the squad, Barcelona face a genuine threat to Real from outside the box; something which was not present in previous encounters and which Mourinho would’ve looked at in the Copa Del Rey when he had his team disrupt Barcelona’s build up play at the back and defend higher knowing that the extra midfielder wont probably pop up in free space outside the box to score? Or does Guardiola settle on the stability brought to the side by Busquets who can keep the game ticking when in offense?

I suspect the former might happen with some variations. I feel that Guardiola intends to draw a rabbit out of the hat for this one. The graphic on the left indicates the type of formation and starting XI that I feel Guardiola would go with for this match. I believe that it is somewhere in between the 3-4-3 and the 3-5-2 that Guardiola will finally settle for. The arrows indicate best how the players will form up. Not the midfield line between the two diagonal red lines. The area spans a total of five players: Alves, Iniesta, Xavi, Busquets & Cesc. When in attack, Alves will bomb up the flank, creating an extra passing outlet, while Messi & Villa can run at our defensive line. Cesc can make the overlapping run, which is something we will face for the first time from Barcelona. While in defence, the same formation can double up as a 4-3-3 while in defence when Busquets drops between the two center backs and Puyol moves to the right to cover the gap left by Alves. All in all, I feel this formation, i.e. a 3-5-2 which becomes a 4-3-3 will be the one that Guardiola will most probably use.

Barcelona’s formation which I discussed in the little graphic above ensures that, while in attack, Barcelona will outnumber our midfield, no matter how you look at it. You may think that our 4-2-3-1 formation nullifies this potential problem. But the difference is in the way both teams play. Real Madrid have a noticeable gap between their attacking quartet and the two midfield players who sit deep and conduct the attack, hence we stand a risk of our midfield getting completely overwhelmed if we maintain that gap. So what is that Mourinho will do?

Coming back to the way we play, Mourinho has broadly employed two formations this season viz.

• The tried and tested 4-2-3-1 which uses the width of the pitch and then makes its kill through the center
• The 4-3-3 against teams which are good in their attacking quotient, which loads the midfield with two defensively oriented but ball playing midfielders who can transit from defence to attack quickly and then using swift counters to make the kill

The formation that Mourinho will most likely prefer going into this match, and which is more of a no-brainer really, is the 4-3-3. No matter which formation Barcelona plays, their midfield usually outnumbers us. Hence, it makes sense to go with the 4-3-3 and against a team which likes to have the ball, rely on swift counters to make the kill. The 4-3-3 formation ensures that we have a trivote in the middle, most probably a Xabi-Khedira-Coentrao trivote, and we’ll also rely on Di Maria’s work ethic while in defence. The graphic on the side illustrates the way we might probably line up.

Again the area between the two bands of red lines indicates how we might probably be in defence, to nullify the numerical advantage that Barca will try to exert on our midfield. The yellow lines indicate the routes some specific players might take for attacks or in defence. Note that our formation in defence is reminiscent of a 3-5-2. However I will not put it that way since our team, unlike Barcelona, is quite rigid when it comes to formations. While we may pile players in the midfield while in defence, and counter attack using meager resources, our formation would always be closer to a rigid 4-3-3.

Clash of Footballing Disciplines

This is going to be probably a classic Possession vs Counter Attack game. While Barcelona will have to be on their topmost form to weave their intricate passing towards Casillas’ goal, Real Madrid will have to be extremely direct and unerringly accurate in their finishing to stand a chance of winning.

The other aspect which Mourinho is sure to implement is aggressive pressing. Just like how we did in the Copa Del Rey, the players will have to press high up and not allow Barcelona to build up from the back. We showed in the Copa Del Rey that Barcelona can be given a taste of their own medicine when it comes to pressing. Mourinho’s basic ideology when it came to pressing was to block the three forward passing lanes that a Barcelona player can have, therefore limiting the player to either pass sideways or back and we’re sure to implement this tomorrow night as well.

Not only that, Mourinho would most definitely have had his squad practice is the quick transition from defence to attack. For our counters to be effective against a team like Barcelona which presses aggressively, the best tactic would be to deploy Xabi Alonso as a quick initiator to counters by spraying the ball aerially to the players down the flanks, with our other players running into space down the center.

Attitude

Barcelona have won or lost all their games dominating possession this season. On the other hand, Real Madrid have won most of their games dominating possession, have suffered in some matches for possession and have won some with distinctly less possession. The direct game play that we employ allows us not to feel frustrated when we’re without the ball, the kind of frustration Barcelona are susceptible to, and which Mourinho would like our players to instigate on the pitch.

Given the sheer variables involved, Mourinho might for once in this match, employ a strategy which is proactive and not reactive, meaning, he might set out the squad to do what they’re most comfortable in doing and see if they can harm Barcelona (Yes, I know that is very unMourinho-like and after the 5-0 it ain’t gonna happen!). The important thing here is attitude. To not get frustrated when things aren’t going your way, to not complain about refereeing decisions (Villarato conspiracy theories, anyone?) and most importantly, to have a drive to win, which is something I’ve finally seen in the squad after a long, long time.

The Catalans usually reserve their very best for Madrid and they use their hate for us to become an obsession which fuels them. I hope we are more mature than them, thinking with cold, calculating heads in this match, steer away from controversies and bring home the goddamned victory. Now, that would be a start. We can gloat later.