A pessimistic projection of how many medals India will win at the Tokyo Olympics 2020 

In the first of a series of three articles on medal projections at the Tokyo Olympics 2020, we had taken an optimistic approach to calculate the number of medals that the Indian contingent could fetch at the mega-event.

Taking an optimistic view, we assumed the luck of the draw in events such as boxing, archery, and wrestling. Likewise, in events including shooting and track and field, we assumed Indian athletes will match their best performance in the leadup to the Games.

Read: Tokyo Olympics 2021 Medal Tally

Using our optimistic model, we projected a total of 28 medals. In the second part, we assume the worst-case scenario at the Tokyo Olympics 2020. Here, we assume an unfavorable draw for athletes and a lackluster performance in events such as shooting and athletics.

Pessimistic medal projection for India in shooting, weightlifting, archery and athletics at the Tokyo Olympics 2020

The shooting contingent has had some inspired performances in the Tokyo Olympics 2020 cycle. Coming of age, Indian shooters have produced some impressive scores in World Cups and continental events.

However, one cannot predict anything conclusively in sports, especially shooting. At the recent ISSF World Cup in Osijek, Croatia, the whole Indian team underperformed, with a visible drop in the qualification scores of the rifle shooters. A similar performance could be a disastrous morale-buster for the Indian contingent at the Tokyo Olympics.

Despite this dip in form, the pessimistic model projects one medal for Indian shooters at the Tokyo Olympics. The pistol shooters have been too consistent to draw a blank at the quadrennial event. Saurabh Chaudhary, in particular, is expected to bring home a medal (probably in the mixed team event) in his debut Olympics.

India's most secure medal could be courtesy of Mirabai Chanu in women's weightlifting. Mirabai has a personal best (PB) total of 205kg in the 49kg division. She could potentially challenge the dominance of China's Hou Zhihui to bag the gold.

Even in the worst-case scenario, she should win a bronze behind American Elizabeth Delacruz, who has a PB of 200kg. The fourth-ranked weightlifter in this category is Piron Candelario Beatriz Elizabeth of the Dominican Republic, who has a best of 193 kg. Mirabai Chanu has not registered an aggregate of less than 193kg since 2017.

Over the years, Indian archers have disappointed at the Olympics, with not even a single medal to show for their efforts. However, this World Cup cycle has seen some standout Indian performances. But, it is also important to remember that traditional powerhouses South Korea and China did not participate in these events.

Akin to shooting, archery is also difficult to forecast. All this forces us to project that the Indian archery team will be blanked out at the Tokyo Olympics 2020.

Athletics has a similar tale. Indian track and field athletes have consistently failed to win medals at the Games. A total of 26 athletes from the country have so far qualified for this edition.

Although the roster boasts of names like Neeraj Chopra and Annu Rani, a medal cannot be taken for granted. Tokyo will be the first Olympics for most medal hopefuls in track and field and the occasion could easily get to them. Our pessimistic approach projects zero medals for Indian track and field athletes in the Japanese capital.

Pessimistic medal projection for India in boxing, wrestling, hockey and badminton at the Tokyo Olympics 2020

A total of nine Indian boxers have qualified for the Tokyo Olympics 2020, compared to a mere three in 2016. The current Olympic cycle has seen Indian boxers improve their game manifold. The change is visible in the increased number of qualifications.

However, the level of competition at the Tokyo Olympics 2020 might prove overwhelming for the Indian boxing team. The likes of Amit Panghal may not need the luck of the draw, but for other boxers, this might be the deciding factor.

We project one medal for the Indian boxing team at the Tokyo Olympics 2020 using a pessimistic approach.

Wrestling has been India's most productive individual event at the Olympics. Indian wrestlers have won one silver and four bronze medals at the event.

Seven Indian wrestlers will compete at the Tokyo Olympics 2020. All seven could win a medal on their day. However, with our pessimistic approach, only two wrestlers look good enough to win a medal at the Tokyo Olympics 2020.

Vinesh Phogat will be seeded no. 1 in the women's 53kg category. She will not face her nemesis Mayu Mukaida until the finals. She has looked invincible so far against all her other opponents, including Pang Qianyu of China.

India can expect a medal in men's wrestling too. The roster features the likes of Bajrang Punia and Ravi Kumar Dahiya. Bajrang will face heavy competition, considering the stupendous pedigree of almost all wrestlers in his category. Ravi is now a twice Asian champion in the 57kg category. He will be eyeing the big prize at the Tokyo Olympics 2020.

India has been doing well in Hockey in the past Olympic cycle. Both the men's and women's teams have performed well at various multinational and bilateral events.

However, the knockout format at the Tokyo Olympics 2020 might be a hurdle. The pessimistic approach predicts zero medals for Indian hockey teams at the Olympics.

In badminton, P.V. Sindhu will be challenged by the likes of Tai Tzu Ying, Akane Yamaguchi, Nozomi Okuhara and Chen Yu Fei in her quest for the Olympic title. P.V. Sindhu has been a brilliant performer at world-level events, but these competitors have given her a tough time in the recent past.

The men's doubles team of Satwiksairaj Rankireddy and Chirag Shetty have done well in international events but they are far from being the favorites. B. Sai Praneeth will look to create some inroads as well but a medal looks improbable.

In badminton, we predict zero medals for the Indian team.

Total medals for India at the Tokyo Olympics 2020 with the pessimistic approach

Indian athletes have qualified in 10 other items, including equestrian, gymnastics, tennis and table tennis. However, our pessimistic model predicts zero medals in these events.

Thus, India can expect a total of 5 medals at the Tokyo Olympics 2020. These include 2 medals in wrestling and a medal each in boxing, shooting and weightlifting.

The most likely medal projection will follow soon.

Also Checkout: Tokyo Olympic Hockey Schedule